March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[USCG RS]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

No help from the Ukie...hair east of 12z run,.

I would therefore expect the Euro to follow suit...

[Grovelander]

27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We'll meet in the middle. The 5ppd is going back after the storm. Have at it James, but don't go too crazy. lol

Another long time Lurker here. 

Good for James. He should enjoy this..

I’v learned and am learning a lot.

 

 

 

[weatherwiz]

Look at that fronto already!

[weathafella]

Just now, USCG RS said:

I would therefore expect the Euro to follow suit...

Why? 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

I would therefore expect the Euro to follow suit...

Euro had a crazy awesome 12z run...so if it ticked a hair east, it would still be a crazy awesome run, though maybe just a tick east. The GFS has never had a crazy awesome run in this whole storm anywhere NW of about PYM. I'll define "crazy awesome" as 18"+ totals.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

No help from the Ukie...hair east of 12z run,.

2 of the big time models too... hope that’s wrong. Globals vs mesos?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Greater Good Greylock IPA has made tonight even more enjoyable

That stuff is strong,  NAM drinking the same brew?  

[Semper911]

4 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

My brother turned me onto it. I recommend the Rendezvous version if you can find it. Campfire, though, is rather spicy and this could jive depending on your palate. 

Thanks brother, I'll look for it.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

2 of the big time models too... hope that’s wrong. Globals vs mesos?

A hair East is not a "jump East" you are crushed no matter what. 

[Hoth]

Do we feel this is a situation where you can give the non-hydrostatics an edge vis-a-vis convection driven height rises? Or do we stick to globals to resolve the northern stream interaction?

[powderfreak]

To keep the posterity coming...

GFS 00z.  

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro had a crazy awesome 12z run...so if it ticked a hair east, it would still be a crazy awesome run, though maybe just a tick east. The GFS has never had a crazy awesome run in this whole storm anywhere NW of about PYM. I'll define "crazy awesome" as 18"+ totals.

I was referring to the Euro following the UKie correlation brother. 

With regards to the GFS, I never really have liked this model tbh. I look at it as a big picture model, however, with the finer details, it just does not have the resolution. Therefore, in a situation such as this, I tend not give it much weight. 

[DavisStraight]

Snows coming in like a wall, shouldn't be long now.

[USCG RS]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Why? 

See what I posted to ORH above

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

2 of the big time models too... hope that’s wrong. Globals vs mesos?

I don’t consider gfs big time for these events.   I’m pretty sure I’ve seen this behavior in all the big ones including January 2015.   Ukmet a hair east may need t make a difference actually.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS totals are actually pretty similar to RGEM totals

 

[Bigfoot]

Small soft snow here ,but good intensity so may add up,just not big flake sizes...1 hr. West of Albany and they are calling for 8-12 here until Thursday am nonstop small snow bands

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

See what I posted to ORH above

I’ve found this correlation to not be reliable of late.

[tavwtby]

2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Snows coming in like a wall, shouldn't be long now.

Just started here...

[weatherwiz]

Analyzing mesoanalysis and several tools on there I would have to think the models which have shown/come more west will end up being correct in that regard.

[TalcottWx]

that 7h fronto band is looking really really good for ORH on east as of right now.

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Wiz, that frontogenesis band will give someone feet of snow, once it pivots in it stalls right along the I95 corridor and someone from PVD to BOS and southeast will see totals near 40"

[Greg]

Look at the water loop and you'll see generally where the low will be and track.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, sbos_wx said:

that 7h fronto band is looking really really good for ORH on east as of right now.

 

Jay, that radar kind of reminds me of the Blizzard of 2015, Juno

[HIPPYVALLEY]

If folks don't mind keeping obs in the other thread that would be awesome. 

[weathafella]

CMC is certainly not backing down.  Definitely ramped up from 12z.

[TalcottWx]

Time to put down the operationals and go over to mesos and nowcasting. It looks great.

[Weenie]

When will the peak of the storm hit the Boston area?

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM was def west of 12z.

[tavwtby]

Inv trough set up the Hudson?