doncat Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: ICON well west, better for NW folk bit pretty much nada city east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Models are showing the winds turning to more of a NE direction. If the 500 low closes off, a deform snow zone should be around and pivot through. I doubt it would be more than an inch or two but that’s probably my only chance to walk away from this with anything left on the ground. I’m resigned to >50% of the liquid here falling as non-snow, likely rain. Just looked up your town, you aren't far east at all; what's the nearest inlet? I may have been fishing up that way once or twice. Anyway if you are going to rain it will be real close for me. For some reason I thought you were way out there. And yet we've had big differences in snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Eduardo said: Yeah I think us south shore peeps are just about cooked. I usually bet against March snow IMBY unless there's some compelling factor(s) suggesting otherwise. I was hoping that our finally seeing some NATL blocking would help us out, but seems like no dice on that. Yeah, this is why I'm never enthused about March snow around here without an arctic airmass in place. With all the city's urbanization, I'm not too enthused about them verifying warning level snows either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, weatherpruf said: Just looked up your town, you aren't far east at all; what's the nearest inlet? I may have been fishing up that way once or twice. Anyway if you are going to rain it will be real close for me. For some reason I thought you were way out there. And yet we've had big differences in snow amounts. He's being very pessimistic. JFK is forecast to receive 4" so he should get around that. I do expect a big gradient from the South Shore/JFK to Riverdale/Van Cortland Park. Wouldn't be surprised if the Bronx got a foot while the barrier islands only accumulate a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Yeah, this is why I'm never enthused about March snow around here without an arctic airmass in place. With all the city's urbanization, I'm not too enthused about them verifying warning level snows either. What's interesting is watching the number of readers fluctuate all day; I've been home sick and noted the rise and fall of readers all day. Either everyone's at dinner or people are losing interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, nzucker said: He's being very pessimistic. JFK is forecast to receive 4" so he should get around that. I do expect a big gradient from the South Shore/JFK to Riverdale/Van Cortland Park. Wouldn't be surprised if the Bronx got a foot while the barrier islands only accumulate a few inches. The Bronx is always good for a little more; it's up there. Riverdale doesn't even feel like the Bronx. People retire there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Who cares . It's a crappy model. ill bet if it showed 2' you would care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Gfs text output has thundersnow for NYC tomorrow. The thermal temps are a joke. Gfs Is mostly snow for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Who cares . It's a crappy model. Yeah, I love Levi's site but putting the Sergeant Schultz model on TT wasn't the best move IMO. While I don't doubt that it might have some useful applications, mostly it's just weenie fodder that further muddies the forecasting waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: The icon came out a while ago and it’s identical to 12z snowfall wise. It is on the western end of the envelope for sure but it’s certainly not “nada”. It's clearly worse. If I was able to delet attachments I'd certainly post. Go on TT and toggle between 12 and 18z clearly more wet then white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, nzucker said: He's being very pessimistic. JFK is forecast to receive 4" so he should get around that. I do expect a big gradient from the South Shore/JFK to Riverdale/Van Cortland Park. Wouldn't be surprised if the Bronx got a foot while the barrier islands only accumulate a few inches. Nate, I think it might be more like JFK 2" Bronx 8" which is still a pretty big gradient. Hopefully we'll all cash in with the southern storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, Paragon said: Nate, I think it might be more like JFK 2" Bronx 8" which is still a pretty big gradient. Hopefully we'll all cash in with the southern storm next week. every model lost that second/third storm...just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: every model lost that second/third storm...just saying That's a midrange thing, we'll have to see what happens after this one gets out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Yea okay You really think it's a good model ? LOL C'mon tony.. you know it's true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Standing on the jersey beaches winds were already howling out of the east southeast. That's not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 anyone peek at the 22Z HRRR....was Delaware supposed to get a foot of snow in 4 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 26 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs text output has thundersnow for NYC tomorrow. The thermal temps are a joke. Gfs Is mostly snow for the area. how much for LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 save this image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 save this image Porque? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: anyone peek at the 22Z HRRR....was Delaware supposed to get a foot of snow in 4 hours? HRRR is not in it's wheelhouse yet. If it still has that in a few runs then I would think it's legitimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 32 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Just looked up your town, you aren't far east at all; what's the nearest inlet? I may have been fishing up that way once or twice. Anyway if you are going to rain it will be real close for me. For some reason I thought you were way out there. And yet we've had big differences in snow amounts. East Rockaway Inlet on the west end of the island, Jones Inlet on the east end. We’re not far out there but typically in these borderline events we find a way to warm up. We don’t need much either in terms of a cold trend but I can’t hang my hat on the high res RGEM which said I was getting a foot of snow the morning of the last event, and the Euro which said 8”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Over running will overperform with this it seems late tonight into tomorrow morning. Maybe someone can pick up 2-4" from that alone before any influence from coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I’d advise against the HRRR.... I usually follow the HRRR closely on storm days, and yet to be impressed, hard to trust a model that runs everhour, and makes large adjustments at that...I’d say 2-3 hours MAX to narrow down start/end time, band placement, but if your looking in this range for numerical substance of value, it’s a fools errand imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: East Rockaway Inlet on the west end of the island, Jones Inlet on the east end. We’re not far out there but typically in these borderline events we find a way to warm up. We don’t need much either in terms of a cold trend but I can’t hang my hat on the high res RGEM which said I was getting a foot of snow the morning of the last event, and the Euro which said 8”. Gotcha. Used to chase winter flounder near the Rockaway Inlet as they moved out; same for fluke in the fall back in the day. So you could actually rain there and Sound's shore to your north could snow? Or do you expect about the same from this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: Gotcha. Used to chase winter flounder near the Rockaway Inlet as they moved out; same for fluke in the fall back in the day. So you could actually rain there and Sound's shore to your north could snow? Or do you expect about the same from this system? My eyes will be peeled to the dual pol radar in the morning and to hopefully any cold trends overnight. It’s rained here numerous times and snowed on the north shore. I don’t think there’ll be a huge difference this time, but the warm air is coming from the south, so we’ll be among the first on Long Island to change over unless the 850 low can trend SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: My eyes will be peeled to the dual pol radar in the morning and to hopefully any cold trends overnight. It’s rained here numerous times and snowed on the north shore. I don’t think there’ll be a huge difference this time, but the warm air is coming from the south, so we’ll be among the first on Long Island to change over unless the 850 low can trend SE. Such differences in snowfall over short distances....I would leave the dock in Sewaren NJ in my skiff and fish off the Rockaways, did it lots of times. I guess it was around 30 mins on a flat sea ( wouldn't go there otherwise, but it was 30 years ago and time flies when going fishing ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdenzler Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 every model lost that second/third storm...just sayingCouple of years back... Here in SW Suffolk we had 0"... While 6-7 miles north in Commack they had 11"...We would up with 18"... They received 30"... Amazing change in only 6-7 miles.Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 We can all agree the HRrrrrrrrrr is trash, but it doesn't hurt to see it South and east, and more so each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 it's early, but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: We can all agree the HRrrrrrrrrr is trash, but it doesn't hurt to see it South and east, and more so each run. The latest run is so far west in the end of the 36hr extended version....Albany dry slots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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