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March 1-3 -NAO Comeback Coastal Discussion/OBS

The Iceman

By The Iceman,
in Philadelphia Region

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Chief83

Chief83

Posted
Posted

SmokeEater is correct. My point was not there is "no content". My intent was to say "snow" drives the interest for most. IF "snow" is not involved then the PHL board is very quiet. I mostly post for observations and I do not get involved in the model reading posting - although I do read the posts with interest. I could add my 2 cents more often , but it would be worth about 2 cents. I am a long time hobbyist, but have no training that would make my comment worth anything.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

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He's not saying there's no content, he means no one cares about the other, more major impacts for our area with this storm, because it's not snow. And I wish I could post more, I drive a truck 10-12 hours a day to north jersey and back, lol.

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Ok then I misread and I apologize. However I vehemently disagree. Go back thru the posts and read my first post of the day and most others thereafter. I am and have been downplaying the snow threat and rather have been more concerned about impacts along shore points as well as power outages inland. On the same token, Iceman has been hitting the NE PA snow threat. Its also a balancing act because there are some folks here that get very upset/discouraged when you even mention a snow threat is diminishing in lieu of less frozen. I try my best to add to discussion however I can whether right, wrong, or indifferent. I too wish I were around more often to post.
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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
StormEater is correct. My point was not there is "no content". My intent was to say "snow" drives the interest for most. IF "snow" is not involved then the PHL board is very quiet. I mostly post for observations and I do not get involved in the model reading posting - although I do read the posts with interest. I could add my 2 cents more often , but it would be worth about 2 cents. I am a long time hobbyist, but have no training that would make my comment worth anything.
Dont need 'training'. Any and all discussion is always welcome. I learn something new here every day.....every single day. Im not saying anybody needs to post 50 times a day. I just wish many of the lurkers would throw in their $.02 and not feel discouraged for any reason. Nobody is perfect and I know I always miss key aspects and often wish there were more posters to help me along. Next 30 hours weather-wise is going to be exciting as all. March in like a lion!
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hazwoper

hazwoper

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Posted
49 minutes ago, Chief83 said:

This board is interesting to me. Major storm coming in - high (probably damaging) winds with power outages likely and because we are not in the "for sure" snow area - this are few comments. Still on the same page as 7 hours ago.   IF it isn't snow - no one here cares.  I like extreme weather regardless of what it is. I love snow - don't get me wrong - but I like what ever we get that stirs it up!!

I also think that the public will get caught by surprise. If it was a blizzard everyone on facebook, social media would be going bonkers. Just a major wind storm and little "chatter".

You have a total of 234 posts.  Perhaps you should look in the mirror before calling people out.  Us regular posters post plenty,  Thanks though for commenting.....

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

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I’ll try and post some obs...I’m mostly monitoring another Philly centric board and twitter these days
Very curious and concerned to see if we get in on these winds...some of the higher resolution modeling has been pretty wild on that potential
3k NAM has peak gust tomorrow at 70mph at my locale. Simply amazing stuff if it were to verify. I dont think Sandy's winds were that high here from what I recall and I lost power for a week. Not too excited about those prospects. Looks like there is a jet streak that retrogrades on the backside of the lp into Eastern PA. Should be pretty widespread trop storm force gusts. Hunker down and be safe.
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hazwoper

hazwoper

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29 minutes ago, SmokeEater said:

He's not saying there's no content, he means no one cares about the other, more major impacts for our area with this storm, because it's not snow. And I wish I could post more, I drive a truck 10-12 hours a day to north jersey and back, lol.

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Of course we care, we just have been following weather for long enough to realize these "major" issues you speak of will likely not be all that major.  Strong winds in this area ALWAYS have a hard time mixing to the surface and modeled wind output is always to overzealous.  Will there be power outages?  sure.  Will hundreds of thousands lose power?  likely no.  Will there be some coastal flooding at high tide?  sure.  will it be major and Sandyesque?  no.

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
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29 minutes ago, Chief83 said:

Not to prolong this - but it had nothing to do with what you or anyone else  posts. My point was we are on the same "computer page" for 7 hours when a significant event is pending. Nuf said - enjoy the storm.

I think one of the issues here, like a number of storms this season, is that the models are all over the place due to potential temperature issues and eventual storm placement and movement once it intensifies.  It would be easy to bust in any direction, and trying to make sense of the uncertainty in a post under this type of scenario, often results in alot of confusion because it is hard to justify the reasoning.... at least beyond pointing to some analogs or similar storms.

We do have folks here who post very good pbps and I wish I had the time myself to watch as the model runs roll out because I am actually juggling between this and other (mostly non-related) hobby forums, but I do try to pay attention when events rise to a level that warrants more active monitoring.

Am hoping to hear from some of our coastal members (e.g., the Cape May folk and other shore dwellers), given this thing could really tear up the coast and produce some surge given the full moon.

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KamuSnow

KamuSnow

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Posted
33 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I think one of the issues here, like a number of storms this season, is that the models are all over the place due to potential temperature issues and eventual storm placement and movement once it intensifies.  It would be easy to bust in any direction, and trying to make sense of the uncertainty in a post under this type of scenario, often results in alot of confusion because it is hard to justify the reasoning.... at least beyond pointing to some analogs or similar storms.

We do have folks here who post very good pbps and I wish I had the time myself to watch as the model runs roll out because I am actually juggling between this and other (mostly non-related) hobby forums, but I do try to pay attention when events rise to a level that warrants more active monitoring.

Am hoping to hear from some of our coastal members (e.g., the Cape May folk and other shore dwellers), given this thing could really tear up the coast and produce some surge given the full moon.

Yeah I wonder if Redmorning---? went up to New Hamphire/Vermont like he was asking about last weekend. I believe he lives down that-a-way.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

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Yeah I wonder if Redmorning---? went up to New Hamphire/Vermont like he was asking about last weekend. I believe he lives down that-a-way.
My parents are retired and live on the Delaware Bay side of Cape May near the ferry landing a couple blocks from the beach. I will get as many reports from them as I can. Bay waters should be ripping, I will see if they get out to take photos and I will post if they do but cant make promises.
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CoolHandMike

CoolHandMike

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
1 hour ago, NJHurricane said:
I’ll try and post some obs...I’m mostly monitoring another Philly centric board and twitter these days
Very curious and concerned to see if we get in on these winds...some of the higher resolution modeling has been pretty wild on that potential

3k NAM has peak gust tomorrow at 70mph at my locale. Simply amazing stuff if it were to verify. I dont think Sandy's winds were that high here from what I recall and I lost power for a week. Not too excited about those prospects. Looks like there is a jet streak that retrogrades on the backside of the lp into Eastern PA. Should be pretty widespread trop storm force gusts. Hunker down and be safe.

Are you looking at 850mb or 10m? It's certainly gonna be ripping a mile up, but I see only 30-40mph at the surface in SEPA on the 3k. But I'm probably looking at the wrong thing...

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Birds~69

Birds~69

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Posted

 

2 hours ago, SmokeEater said:

This, people around here don't have any idea about how fast power outages are going to come tomorrow. We're so saturated it's not even funny. And if we do change over to snow at all that cement is just going to make it even worse. Coastal flooding is going to be a big issue too, just speaking on my neck of the woods. Very strong noreaster either way. Just not looking forward to driving a box truck to north jersey tomorrow. The ride up and down the Turnpike isn't gonna be fun at all.
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

Yep, although I don't live around you I fully expect to see some flickerage (if not out of power) the next day or so. And the lawn feels like a bunch of of wet Nerf balls...I sink and squash with every step. Very saturated.

I'm fully pumped to see wet pasting snow with 40-50mph+ winds. I'll be the idiot outside (BBQing?) enjoying it while to neighbors peep out their windows saying WTF is that guy doing?? And since it's a Friday night...booze may be involved.

Prediction: 3.5" - 4-5" lawn/trees/power lines and some paved surfaces depending on intensity. It's not really the amount but I think it's going to look pretty cool out there with the nutjob winds.....whiteout potential at times?

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KamuSnow

KamuSnow

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44F here currently, raining. Looking like the coastal low may wind up a smidge closer to the coast which may help with the PM banding. Some improvements snowfall wise on most of the 0z models so far, except for the GEM and RGEM, who still don't want to play. One Canadian likes us however :lol::

 

HRDPS-0z_3-02-18.jpg

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Kevin Reilly

Kevin Reilly

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

^ 8-10" from your yard to mine let's do this! Imagine the snow sculptured landscape with wind gusts to 60mph lol

 

I will say high resolution models need serious consideration looking at the incredible dynamics that will be occurring I actually would side with them. Here is my snow map 

2CC2C4DF-B0DF-4749-8DA7-2C06BED5638C.jpeg

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