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The Iceman

February 17-18 Threat Discussion

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21 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Downgraded to a WWA here for 3-5" of snow expected. Now watch us hit warning criteria lol.

It really doesn't make a difference in my book ...same amount of snow is expected.

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I wake up in the middle of the night to remind you all EE rule ftw... Now back to bed. 

Well, maybe the old eta wouldnt have picked up on the warm nose but the NAMs certainly are and continue to push that feature N and W even back into RedSky country now. Even the Euro came in warmer with this feature pushing it into SE PA but not as extreme as the NAM/RGEM. Reminds me of the March 13 system last year where a similar thing happened and kept slowly trending with said feature but many of us ignored it and claimed Dynamics and heavy precip rates would negate that warming. Hopefully we can get a cooling trend the final 2 model runs otherwise I am chopping my 2-4" down to 1-3" here with a thump to rain call. Holding steady for now stubbornly.  

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
10 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:
It really doesn't make a difference in my book ...same amount of snow is expected.

You and I are right on the line imo between all snow, a mix, or thump to rain. A few miles between us will likely be the difference between 1-3" and 3-6".

I've been through this song and dance so many times over the decades. And much of the time it doesn't fall in our favor. The thing which will make this less of a blow is most of it will probably melt tomorrow anyways and we may/will hit 70 next week. It's pretty sad it's like a March/April type storm and we're in mid February... 

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Hmmm, I'm in Mt Holly's rectangle. Nice job guys. At least you had something to track this week. I will be happy sipping a wine later and watching some flakes outside by the dusk to dawn lights before it changes to rain on its way out. 

 

Looking forward to maybe something in Mar should the -NAO signal verify. 

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Just looked at the 3k NAM again.....man, is that meso hires good at picking up key thermal features or what? It is unfortunately even warmer than I thought at first glance. Warm nose up to 700mb makes it all the way up into the lower Lehigh Valley. Not just this verbatim, but going back last 3 runs it is trucking that feature N and W on a one-way spoiler mission. Im not talking ticks or adjustments either. This is a big red flag guys. I dont mean to piss in anyone's wheaties this morning, but the writing is on the wall. Heavy rates arent going to overcome rotting mid levels. This isnt a dynamics situation we are relying on like last March, more of a wave moving into an eroding airmass with already questionable BL temps to begin with. Night snow may help with some stickage on the grass but wont help cool the column....that is a non factor imo. Snow maps are overdone and factoring in mixing as accum snow it seems.

 

Expectations for an inch or 2 here before any change. 2" will get me into my range from earlier so yeah, lol.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I usually don't trust/pay attention to accu weather's "future tracker" but this a mess. All rain by 10pm pretty far N/NW....wash out. Even if it's somewhat wrong...still a wash out here.

ft.jpg

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My temp dropped down to 22 last night. Hopefully allowed for some freezing of the ground so snow can accumulate right away this evening. The NAM shows the rain line creeping towards Berks by 10ish but precip is almost done by then and precip rates are lighter, hence why rain may mix in. The NWS doesn't have rain here so I'll stick with them.

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20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just looked at the 3k NAM again.....man, is that meso hires good at picking up key thermal features or what? It is unfortunately even warmer than I thought at first glance. Warm nose up to 700mb makes it all the way up into the lower Lehigh Valley. Not just this verbatim, but going back last 3 runs it is trucking that feature N and W on a one-way spoiler mission. Im not talking ticks or adjustments either. This is a big red flag guys. I dont mean to piss in anyone's wheaties this morning, but the writing is on the wall. Heavy rates arent going to overcome rotting mid levels. This isnt a dynamics situation we are relying on like last March, more of a wave moving into an eroding airmass with already questionable BL temps to begin with. Night snow may help with some stickage on the grass but wont help cool the column....that is a non factor imo. Snow maps are overdone and factoring in mixing as accum snow it seems.

 

Expectations for an inch or 2 here before any change. 2" will get me into my range from earlier so yeah, lol.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Geee thanks for the warm piss with those  morning cornflakes, Has Colin from the old eastern days taken over your account? :lmao: but on a serious note good stuff...those are the little things that we're overlooked last March. Hoping for the best but from 5 days out I've locked on to 2.3" and I'm sticking to it here.

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Geee thanks for the warm piss with those  morning cornflakes, Has Colin from the old eastern days taken over your account? :lmao: but on a serious note good stuff...those are the little things that we're overlooked last March. Hoping for the best but from 5 days out I've locked on to 2.3" and I'm sticking to it here.

Even the RAP is white rain now all the way up to I78.

 

I said since Tuesday this feels like a 1-3"/2-4" type thing but didnt expect that to be for the LV lol.

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CBS3 should think about hiring more qualified Mets (not all) and update forecast as needed. Just now...
cbs.jpg.80904a333f9182dc6f92471c9dbc7962.jpg
That could very well still verify but if following the trends last 18 hours those totals seem aggressive. Not many folks are even mentioning ratios either which at best will be 8:1 - 10:1 for many. Hoping for a last second miracle turn of events.....not even a complete reversal just stop the trend/bleeding at least.

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
32 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:
CBS3 should think about hiring more qualified Mets (not all) and update forecast as needed. Just now...
cbs.jpg.80904a333f9182dc6f92471c9dbc7962.jpg

That could very well still verify but if following the trends last 18 hours those totals seem aggressive. Not many folks are even mentioning ratios either which at best will be 8:1 - 10:1 for many. Hoping for a last second miracle turn of events.....not even a complete reversal just stop the trend/bleeding at least.

Not to be negative but I don't see that map verifying at all. I see upper Bucks/Mont in the 1-3" and Berks maybe in the 2-4" range. You and I, 1-2" sloop then rain. It's a wait and see I guess...

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I'm not an expert but I said the other day I doubt 5 inches happens. We do see warm days followed by snow but it's been warm for awhile and when it's a temperature race, I never like our odds. Gotta go with the gut sometimes boys. It's a non event Philly S&E as far as I'm concerned lol.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

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Not to be negative but I don't see that map verifying at all. I see upper Bucks/Mont in the 1-3" and Berks maybe in the 2-4" range. You and I, 1-2" sloop then rain. It's a wait and see I guess...
Im with ya and agree, pretty aggressive call but nobody can claim victory/loss until the final flake/drop falls tomorrow morning.

Sun is shining bright and already feels toasty out there. Not a good setup for the lower levels with clouds not moving in until late in the day.

If we have any chance for a last second surprise we should get a hint or signal in the next 20 minutes as the NAMs roll in. Do or die time, now or never, backs are against the wall, add your other cliches lol.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Im with ya and agree, pretty aggressive call but nobody can claim victory/loss until the final flake/drop falls tomorrow morning.

Sun is shining bright and already feels toasty out there. Not a good setup for the lower levels with clouds not moving in until late in the day.

If we have any chance for a last second surprise we should get a hint or signal in the next 20 minutes as the NAMs roll in. Do or die time, now or never, backs are against the wall, add your other cliches lol.

I don't think it's an aggressive call. I think CBS3 was too lazy/not qualified to update the maps from last night.

Yep, just was out...sun blazing. I can see the temps spiking more than we thought.

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850s are considerably cooler in SE PA on the 12k. Noise? Not sure. But instead of 850s +2 widespread now look like 850s -1 widespread with a pocket of 0 or +1 at best. Snow map looks like CBS Philly maybe a hair S and E. Cant make this stuff up. Miracle at the Meadowlands Part 3 type thing incoming??

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