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February 17-18 Threat Discussion
The Iceman posted a topic in Philadelphia RegionWell with the potential event being inside 5 days now and the Euro making a big shift at 12z towards the CMC, this storm is officially a threat. Euro snow totals were this BTW. I'm copying my thoughts from the OBS thread that remain pretty unchanged even with the new 12z Euro burying us. I am still very worried about this becoming too amped and trending north as we approach the event meaning we will change to rain or become majority rain. We don't have a high locked in so the airmass in place doesn't have much depth but the timing is very very good on this event. This may just be our fluke storm make up from not cashing in on a big one from earlier in the winter when we had a much more favorable pattern. From earlier: 12z CMC shows basically the perfect track for us on the Saturday night storm. Would be 6-10" region wide. GFS is flatter and squashes it south. But in this range, that may be where we want it to be seeing as the last few events saw a big north trend as we got closer to the event and with the SE ridge building in, I have a hard time seeing this one slide south and OTS. I am worried more about temps than an event at this stage. With the +NAO, I don't really think it is a question of if we see a north trend but how far north is it going to end up. If the GFS had us in the jackpot right now, I would say this is almost certainly a rain event. It has a few things going for it like timing which will be overnight saturday so no sun angle worries and no lakes low to scour out the cold air ahead of the storm but we are still in this progressive pattern so changes with the key players are going to have impacts on the track. I don't expect any kind of consensus for another 48 hours at least and possibly not until all of the players are on the field. Overall, my feeling is that this has a fairly decent shot at being a 6" storm for the region despite being in a hostile pattern for winter weather. Like I said in an earlier post, I still am favoring north and west areas at this time as having the best chance for this storm. One more thing that I just noticed. The 06z NAVGEM is actually a decent hit for us and not squashed/suppressed when it is typically the furthest S and E of the models on storms. Another "Wiggum rule" tells me that when the NAVGEM isn't the S and E outlier, the storm is likely going to trend back north. I haven't seen the 12z NAVGEM yet though to see if this is still the case but it is a good sign for us that the 06z was not suppressed south.