Mid Winter Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The other thing is that we're seeing a dramatic shrinking in the cold season if you use first freeze to last freeze as a metric. Also a big drop in snow depth (which is pretty remarkable given that our annual snowfall certainly hasn't decreased). I mean you really can't deny that what's happening these days is remarkably anomalous.

What I'm interested in is if the presence of these massive ridges and even more extreme warming in the Arctic can lead to pockets of localized/extended cold. If you've got a big ridge you need a trough somewhere! 

where do we get airport snow depth changes over time, seems like the majority don't keep depth reports anymore

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

where do we get airport snow depth changes over time, seems like the majority don't keep depth reports anymore

This is also at long term coop sites like Norfolk. The trends are probably more alarming at the outlying sites (including frost free season lengthening, etc)

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I also am not arguing that you don't think it's warming. I'm saying that it is not normal to break an all time record two years in a row. Sure every year has a tiny percentage chance of that happening, but it's definitely on the tail of the distribution.

Imagine if BOS had done snowfall 2015, then broke it again in 2016. Theoretically it is possible (1 in however many million Sam calculated for one year, then factor in doing it twice in a row) but people would all be screaming "new normal."

I don't think that's what is actually occurring though. We're still setting plenty of warm records in the warm season.

Unusual yes, unprecedented, well IDK about that, and snowfall over 6 weeks versus temps over a day or 2, apples and oranges. I totally understand what you are saying but I fail to see the entire climate change link due to record heat on the same week in Feb 2 years in a row. I hope so though maybe we repeat last years record cold in March

[CT Rain]

6 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

I was going to mention this as well but hadn't finished doing a full research of the stats. Anecdotally I thought this was true so a while back I plotted BDL's date of first frost using a 10-year SMA for the last few decades and since 2002, BDL's first frost date has increased from 9/29 to 10/7 in just 15 years. I wanted to do something a little more thorough by including co-ops and maybe not going by the first frost/freeze, but maybe choosing something a little less noisy but haven't gotten around to it.

I was shocked when looking at the coop sites how dramatic the increase has been. 

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Feb 15th 16th 1954

The New York/West Hampstead soundings from those dates in 1954 featured 500 mb heights of 570.9, 572, 573.8, and 573.7 (15z on the 15th, through 9z on the 16th before heights began falling).

[weatherwiz]

This is really exciting! I may have an internship setup for the summer at a company in CT! Should find out more details in the next few days and it would also include the possibility of a full-time job

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

This is really exciting! I may have an internship setup for the summer at a company in CT! Should find out more details in the next few days and it would also include the possibility of a full-time job

Chase season FTL.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Chase season FTL.

Vacation time  

But the internship would be for this summer so I should have time to chase. I also maybe going to Notre Dame to do a presentation in June so hopefully they get some derechos then 

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The New York/West Hampstead soundings from those dates in 1954 featured 500 mb heights of 570.9, 572, 573.8, and 573.7 (15z on the 15th, through 9z on the 16th before heights began falling).

thanks 

[snowman21]

Wow 80 at EWR, 81 EEB.

[wx2fish]

43 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

I've been using the 3/16 tubing for the past couple of years and have some vacuum on other parts.  I've lost count on the number of taps but I go based on the number of drop lines that I usually make but it's around 650-700 I think.

Sounds like you have the maple bug!  Do you post on the maple trader site?

I haven't posted there but I've lurked there from time to time. I'm running 3/16 too and I've been playing around with a cheap vac pump with decent results. I haven't been getting crazy runs yet this year

[ORH_wxman]

The background warming definitely makes the warm records more likely. It's unlikely we would have broken the record two Februarys in a row without background warming. 

The media does tend to get carried away though on attribution. The warming makes occurrences more likely but they are still overwhelmingly the result of natural variation. Otherwise we wouldn't be setting cold records pretty much ever. We can still do it on a daily and monthly basis  

Ryan pointed out the fringe seasons...which is the place where we see the warming the strongest. Spring and fall are warming a lot faster than winter. Winter actually has a 2+ decade neutral/cooling trend...likely aided by the increases blocking in the 2000s/2010s. 

[CT Rain]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The background warming definitely makes the warm records more likely. It's unlikely we would have broken the record two Februarys in a row without background warming. 

The media does tend to get carried away though on attribution. The warming makes occurrences more likely but they are still overwhelmingly the result of natural variation. Otherwise we wouldn't be setting cold records pretty much ever. We can still do it on a daily and monthly basis  

Ryan pointed out the fringe seasons...which is the place where we see the warming the strongest. Spring and fall are warming a lot faster than winter. Winter actually has a 2+ decade neutral/cooling trend...likely aided by the increases blocking in the 2000s/2010s. 

Exactly. What makes attribution hard is that these events are becoming more likely as the climate warms. Could they have happened 200 years ago? Sure. But they're more likely now. 

 

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The background warming definitely makes the warm records more likely. It's unlikely we would have broken the record two Februarys in a row without background warming. 

The media does tend to get carried away though on attribution. The warming makes occurrences more likely but they are still overwhelmingly the result of natural variation. Otherwise we wouldn't be setting cold records pretty much ever. We can still do it on a daily and monthly basis  

Ryan pointed out the fringe seasons...which is the place where we see the warming the strongest. Spring and fall are warming a lot faster than winter. Winter actually has a 2+ decade neutral/cooling trend...likely aided by the increases blocking in the 2000s/2010s. 

Yes, very true its the hype thats makes me cringe, everything every day is the biggest, baddest, worst, best evah.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Exactly. What makes attribution hard is that these events are becoming more likely as the climate warms. Could they have happened 200 years ago? Sure. But they're more likely now. 

 

At least temperature is a bit easier. Stuff like winter storms and other large events like droughts and floods are definitely tougher to analyze. 

[CT Rain]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least temperature is a bit easier. Stuff like winter storms and other large events like droughts and floods are definitely tougher to analyze. 

What interests me is that if these giant pig ridges become more common in winter what other stuff happens as a result. 

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Exactly. What makes attribution hard is that these events are becoming more likely as the climate warms. Could they have happened 200 years ago? Sure. But they're more likely now. 

Shifting probabilities.

As we nudge the distribution to the warm side, warm records become more common. Could they have happened in the past, as you say, yes. But the probability that a record high gets set on any given day has increased.

That's what some of these quick attribution studies try to do on a case by case basis I think. Take today for instance. With no background warming 70 degrees in February had some small percentage of likelihood. Under a warming climate 70 degrees in February becomes more likely, increasing the percentage. It's obviously more in depth than that, but that's how you end up with studies after Harvey talking about climate change contributions to rainfall. Temps are obviously more robust as Will says, because we have thousands of data points to sample there vs. large precip events.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

thanks 

Teach a man to fish...

https://ruc.noaa.gov/raobs/

[powderfreak]

23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yes, very true its the hype thats makes me cringe, everything every day is the biggest, baddest, worst, best evah.

I hate the media hype of winter storms with a passion.  It gets so bad sometimes...everyone is going to die as its going to snow 8-12"!  Ryan handles it the best by far of anyone I've seen.

 

 

[CT Rain]

11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Shifting probabilities.

As we nudge the distribution to the warm side, warm records become more common. Could they have happened in the past, as you say, yes. But the probability that a record high gets set on any given day has increased.

That's what some of these quick attribution studies try to do on a case by case basis I think. Take today for instance. With no background warming 70 degrees in February had some small percentage of likelihood. Under a warming climate 70 degrees in February becomes more likely, increasing the percentage. It's obviously more in depth than that, but that's how you end up with studies after Harvey talking about climate change contributions to rainfall. Temps are obviously more robust as Will says, because we have thousands of data points to sample there vs. large precip events.

Where things become even more complex (and probably more concerning/significant) is what kind of feedback mechanisms setup. That seems how you can get things that are way more extreme than the background warming would suggest. 

 

[powderfreak]

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The background warming definitely makes the warm records more likely. It's unlikely we would have broken the record two Februarys in a row without background warming. 

The media does tend to get carried away though on attribution. The warming makes occurrences more likely but they are still overwhelmingly the result of natural variation. Otherwise we wouldn't be setting cold records pretty much ever. We can still do it on a daily and monthly basis  

Ryan pointed out the fringe seasons...which is the place where we see the warming the strongest. Spring and fall are warming a lot faster than winter. Winter actually has a 2+ decade neutral/cooling trend...likely aided by the increases blocking in the 2000s/2010s. 

That's my general feeling on it.  There are a lot of warm periods that just seem to have that extra something at times to really go the distance. 

Be interesting to see what the probability is of setting all-time monthly high temperatures in back-to-back years at places with say over 50 year period of records.  Has to be fairly small.

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Where things become even more complex (and probably more concerning/significant) is what kind of feedback mechanisms setup. That seems how you can get things that are way more extreme than the background warming would suggest. 

 

Right, it's not always linear. A 2 K increase in theta-e has exponential implications to a forecast.

[CT Rain]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Right, it's not always linear. A 2 K increase in theta-e has exponential implications to a forecast.

That was the problem with the Harvey attribution studies is that the issues are extraordinarily complex. Just using background warming = this much extra moisture probably does it. And it's also really hard to downscale climate models to resolve the complexities with a TCs track (and stall). 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Where things become even more complex (and probably more concerning/significant) is what kind of feedback mechanisms setup. That seems how you can get things that are way more extreme than the background warming would suggest. 

 

This is where a lot of the more uncertain research is now. There's some good studies that come out, but we do get reminded frequently that this part of the field is still evolving. I remember multiple peer reviewed studies that came out during the huge blocking we saw from 2009-2013 that linked Arctic warming and sea ice loss with the NAO/AO blocking. We since have gone 5 consecutive winters without a -NAO, and it hasn't been close either...the first time that has happened since 1988-1989 through 1994-1995 when we did it 7 years in a row which was during a period of unusual cold in the Arctic, esp on the Atlantic side. A couple studies have now cast doubt on the original theory...so it's clearly a work in progress on those tipping point and 2nd order effect studies. 

[CT Rain]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is where a lot of the more uncertain research is now. There's some good studies that come out, but we do get reminded frequently that this part of the field is still evolving. I remember multiple peer reviewed studies that came out during the huge blocking we saw from 2009-2013 that linked Arctic warming and sea ice loss with the NAO/AO blocking. We since have gone 5 consecutive winters without a -NAO, and it hasn't been close either...the first time that has happened since 1988-1989 through 1994-1995 when we did it 7 years in a row which was during a period of unusual cold in the Arctic, esp on the Atlantic side. A couple studies have now cast doubt on the original theory...so it's clearly a work in progress on those tipping point and 2nd order effect studies. 

For sure. And the peer reviewed process works. The Jennifer Francis stuff that came out (that the media really latched on for obvious reasons) was pretty controversial from the beginning with a lot of dissenting views. 

[CT Rain]

To the, "don't take my snow crowd" of the GW deniers I do think there are some pretty interesting things that could happen down the road. Geographically we're in a good spot so all hope is not lost if we're 2 or 3c warmer. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

So bizzare walking around the Back Bay of Boston in February with temps in the mid 70s.  Short skirts and sandals were mingling with jeans, boots, and jackets

We hit 79F on the Pike (not South, or North...right in the middle)

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

To the, "don't take my snow crowd" of the GW deniers I do think there are some pretty interesting things that could happen down the road. Geographically we're in a good spot so all hope is not lost if we're 2 or 3c warmer. 

I sort of cringed at the Harvey study. We know warmer air holds more water vapor,  but we also know a slow moving TC is a recipe for disaster flooding. As you said, the mesoscale nuances are endless. To me and I know this was talked about...I’d be more interested if there was a GW component to the stalling of Harvey.

[dendrite]

So CON hit 74F today...broke the daily record by 10F and the monthly record by 5F. That is also the warmest temperature ever recorded there for meteorological winter. The previous sub-74F window ran from 11/21 (76F 11/20/1991) through 3/8 (77F on 3/9/2016). We have done some monster late Feb-Mar warmth over the past decade.

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

To the, "don't take my snow crowd" of the GW deniers I do think there are some pretty interesting things that could happen down the road. Geographically we're in a good spot so all hope is not lost if we're 2 or 3c warmer. 

Some of the climate projections from models don't look realistic from a snow standpoint. Like reducing snowfall here to 40% of current averages by 2050. Though a lot of those are also unrealistic warming solutions (like 0.5C per decade type stuff). We should have seen a solid dropoff already of the relationship was that strong. 

But even in that case, our snowfall def won't fall off as drastically since it only really matters if it is cold enough to snow. A majority of our winter warming is coming in the form of warmer low temps on clear nights which would have little effect on our snowfall. Our max temps are warming slower and max temps are much more correlated to midlevel temps which is what we care about. The natural baroclinic zone to our south definitely helps too.