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Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

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Maybe I'm getting the models confused but I thought the NAM had more than .5" for Wake?   That seems a little anemic to me.  But could definitely end up verifying.  
Can someone post a 2-run comparison?

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29 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Maybe I'm getting the models confused but I thought the NAM had more than .5" for Wake?   That seems a little anemic to me.  But could definitely end up verifying.  
Can someone post a 2-run comparison?

Going off the 10:1 ratio there is a little more. Problem is we will need higher precip rates to drive the temp down.

So basically if precip is light, we get rain mixed snow showers. If rates are higher we get all snow (after a start of rain) with the potential of higher than 10:1 rates.

 

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At hour 34 the band hits the VA/NC mountains down through N Alabama. Definitely a healthier look; whereas the Ga folks might get a little more accumulation if it continues to stay together. 

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12z NAM doesn't look bad. Could that vort be strong enough to really wring out the atmosphere and drop a few inches in a few hours? Hmmm.... 

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Just now, burgertime said:

12z NAM doesn't look bad. Could that vort be strong enough to really wring out the atmosphere and drop a few inches in a few hours? Hmmm.... 

You might be just a little too far east. 

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Just now, FallsLake said:

You might be just a little too far east. 

:lmao: for real though, this sort of reminds me of Feb 2013. Vort was so strong passing overhead you had heavy convective snow. Slightly different setup (that was closer to a ULL) but looking at 7h and the setup I think there's some potential for surprises especially with such cold air involved. 

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1 minute ago, burgertime said:

:lmao: for real though, this sort of reminds me of Feb 2013. Vort was so strong passing overhead you had heavy convective snow. Slightly different setup (that was closer to a ULL) but looking at 7h and the setup I think there's some potential for surprises especially with such cold air involved. 

And whether it closes off or not is important. Should get a better handle today. 

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According to the Kuchera...NAM has 3-4" amounts in the Triad...2" in Charlotte. 

Soundings off the NAM have surface temps down into the mid 20s at the height of the precip. Good run overall for the western Piedmont. 

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The overall key to notice on the NAM is it is closer to a neutral tilt and finally closes off at 5H over VA, a little late and north but get it to close off sooner and a little further south and things would get much more interesting.

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The 3K NAM continues to be a bit drier for folks back this far west, which isn't really that surprising considering the setup. It is showing more precip than 0Z/6Z though. Also looks as good or better than the 16K NAM for most NC folks. 

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