40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, Organizing Low said: i like Ray's call, hard to say if that is the final outcome, it nudges slightly west or slightly east, only time will tell. if you ask me as a pattern/model peruser (and not analyzer)...eliminating the noise, you won't get a better shot at more severe winter weather down in SE mass and metro boston , good luck enjoy the storm, look forward to radar posts, obs and pics Glad you see you posting again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: FINAL CALL: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/01/blizzard-of-2018-final-call.html I-91 corridor in SNE looks to be the difference between ><6". This would be consistent with what is happening in North Carolina tonight. Sharp gradient appears to be rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Congrats, dude! Heck of a way to christen your first NE winter. It's been a crazy ride! It'd be fun to get at least 14" of snow to beat my single storm record (although sleet compressed a lot of that down to depth of 10"). My front yard should have snow depth close to two feet when it's over. That's just insane. Let's hope both of us do well with this storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Mr Rogers just weenied out as I watched the hrdps hand the entire state 12-20 hot dogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, WxBlue said: It's been a crazy ride! It'd be fun to get at least 14" of snow to beat my single storm record (although sleet compressed a lot of that down to depth of 10"). My front yard should have snow depth close to two feet when it's over. That's just insane. Let's hope both of us do well with this storm! You're in prime positioning for that. I use to live in dover. It loves getting slammed and theyre actually pretty damn good at snow removal!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 00z NAM.....FWIW It's a Rembrandt...no it's just one models output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 11 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Models are now taking turns trying to impress each other. RGEM found the highest cliff and did a sextuple back flip. This 949 mb depiction at 24h has superstorm potential, wind impacts may have considerable public safety implications. Could see this setting up 3-5" an hour snowfall bands, only short duration prevents this from going to record totals, but even so some jackpots near 30" likely. Severe blowing and drifting and lethal cold during and after snowfall. I know you're ready but is New England ready? Would hope there's a total travel ban issued, almost any travel would probably be pointless and would lead to many people getting stranded, or worse. I thought about it...and was inclined to do so last night, but seeing too many single digit snowfall totals on model output today...I know 30" is totally doable in 12 hours, but there must be something about the envt. that models are sensing as hostile to truly obscene amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Mr Rogers just weenied out as I watched the hrdps hand the entire state 12-20 hot dogs.I see you backed away from the cliff a bit . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I thought about it...and was inclined to do so last night, but seeing too many single digit snowfall totals on model output today...I know 30" is totally doable in 12 hours, but there must be something about the envt. that models are sensing as hostile to truly obscene amounts. Wouldn't shock me to see it, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Snow depth is one thing, but the aftermath of this is likely to be vast drifts in one spot and blown bare in another, I lived in the Lake Huron snowbelt for many years and 50 cm of snow just tells you to expect either 5 or 500 once that wind starts howling. However, I am actually more concerned now about wind impacts even than snowfall, this thing is racing along and deepening as it goes, seas are going to be monstrous and I could imagine sustained 70 mph winds and gusts to 110 mph with this (just as some places saw with 1-26-78). Okay, you're on the "weak" side of the track but in this particular case, the dynamics may be equally brutal east or west at the point in time where it's passing Cape Cod. My best bet for highest storm total would be 32" near Lake Sebago ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I thought about it...and was inclined to so so last night, but seeing to many single digit snowfall totals on model output today...I know 30" is totally doable in 12 hours, but there must be something about the envt. that models are sensing as a hostile to truly obscene amounts. I think residence time under the banding is a mitigating factor. There will be some lucky ones, but this isn't the setup where someone gets a death band for 6-8 hours. Max is probably 3-4 hours. You start doing the math with that and it you can see how hard it gets to go over an 18 or 20 spot. Someone will prob snag 3" per hour for 3-4 hours and then add the shoulder periods and they score 18-20 for a max. Most of us will be less obviously. That's why I like a general 8-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 30” in 12hrs with wind??? Aside from some weenie measuring in a drift, ehhhhh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, HullMA said: You're in prime positioning for that. I use to live in dover. It loves getting slammed and theyre actually pretty damn good at snow removal!! Roads were clear few hours after 8" Christmas storm ended. Sidewalks are also cleared as soon as the day after. I'm VERY impressed with this town's ability to remove snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I think residence time under the banding is a mitigating factor. There will be some lucky ones, but this isn't the setup where someone gets a death band for 6-8 hours. Max is probably 3-4 hours. You start doing the math with that and it you can see how hard it gets to go over an 18 or 20 spot. Someone will prob snag 3" per hour for 3-4 hours and then add the shoulder periods and they score 18-20 for a max. Most of us will be less obviously. That's why I like a general 8-14. We can both recall plenty of 12 hour events that dropped 30-spots, though....why is banding so transient here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, WintersComing said: I see you backed away from the cliff a bit . I tapped the edge to see if it would crumble first, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: 30” in 12hrs with wind??? Aside from some weenie measuring in a drift, ehhhhh.... Systems like Dec 23, 1997, Boxing day, April fools all come to mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Glad you see you posting again. thanks buddy, hard not to post when you see low pressure numbers being spit out like the ones we've been seeing this week ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I tapped the edge to see if it would crumble first, sure. Haha. No doubt this has been a hair puller for many!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 This storm is moving fast, so as soon as the bands move in, they start to pivot and then move out. I think you want a solid 6-8 hrs of poundage to break that 2' plus mark when considering being shouldered by light to moderate snow on either side, like Will mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattm4242 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Not sure how much snow we will get in Gloucester, I could see anywhere from 8-16 or so. But with whatever we get plus the wind, there are going to be a ton of power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We can both recall plenty of 12 hour events that dropped 30-spots, though....why is banding so transient here? I think part of it is you would like the dynamics to be maxing as it passes New England to get stable banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: We can both recall plenty of 12 hour events that dropped 30-spots, though....why is banding so transient here? I dunno about "plenty"...maybe Feb 2001...that's about it for me. I suppose you could include April 1997 since like 80% of the snow fell in a 12 hour period...but I don't think we are confusing this with April '97's firehose of moisture. This one could def be impressive...I can't say I'd be totally shocked with a 20 or 24 spot maybe...but this thing is trucking. This is mostly an 8-10 hour storm. The dynamics are really nice...but so was December 9, 2005 and we didn't see 30" from that one either...it was trucking. I will admit this is not an easy forecast do to the anomalous nature of the system...it may hae some tricks up its sleeve....but my gut feeling is this won't have a large deathbad swath of 20+ like a Feb '01....I also thinkt he max intensification rate is to our south on this one...a max death band for the fisherman south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I dunno about "plenty"...maybe Feb 2001...that's about it for me. I suppose you could include April 1997 since like 80% of the snow fell in a 12 hour period...but I don't think we are confusing this with April '97's firehose of moisture. This one could def be impressive...I can't say I'd be totally shocked with a 20 or 24 spot maybe...but this thing is trucking. This is mostly an 8-10 hour storm. The dynamics are really nice...but so was December 9, 2005 and we didn't see 30" from that one either...it was trucking. I will admit this is not an easy forecast do to the anomalous nature of the system...it may hae some tricks up its sleeve....but my gut feeling is this won't have a large deathbad swath of 20+ like a Feb '01....I also thinkt he max intensification rate is to our south on this one...a max death band for the fisherman south of LI. Checkmate. Excellent point...that coupled with speed of movement answers my question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Congrats Hudson Canyon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, mattm4242 said: Not sure how much snow we will get in Gloucester, but with the winds there are going to be a ton of power outages. This is my fear here as well. My mom is down in scituate. She has a fireplace at least though!! Considering cranking it to 85. This place loses heat fast unfortunately Seen calls for 70mph. Nuts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Systems like Dec 23, 1997, Boxing day, April fools all come to mind... Boxing day was a longer storm and had a maxing H5 low closing off right in a perfect spot for NJ to see like 8 hours of crushing banding. Different from tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, WxBlue said: It's been a crazy ride! It'd be fun to get at least 14" of snow to beat my single storm record (although sleet compressed a lot of that down to depth of 10"). My front yard should have snow depth close to two feet when it's over. That's just insane. Let's hope both of us do well with this storm! Think I'll be fine, but even if I'm not I have a lot of awesome storm memories to fall back on from the last decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I think part of it is you would like the dynamics to be maxing as it passes New England to get stable banding. Yea, thanks....can't believe that I forgot about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Checkmate. Excellent point...that coupled with speed of movement answers my question. Yeah the next 12 hrs would be epic up here if we were in HSE position right now and points NNE. By no means am I downplaying, but the real fun is during rapid deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I thought about it...and was inclined to do so last night, but seeing too many single digit snowfall totals on model output today...I know 30" is totally doable in 12 hours, but there must be something about the envt. that models are sensing as hostile to truly obscene amounts. I've been wondering about that. I know, queens gon' queen, but usually with the big ones the models do look pretty juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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