Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

December 30, 2017 Threat


Ralph Wiggum

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 62
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Lucy is healed and has returned in a BIG way. Went from every model showing a monster storm and epic pattern to a clipper system chance Saturday and an early breakdown of the not-so-epic pattern next week. Progressive patterns with a raging Northern Jet can still get us to avg or even AN snow this year but I had no idea how challenging this pattern was going to be on model forecasts more than 84 hours out. If its any consolation, the Euro and Ukie both have 4-8" across part of SE PA via the clipper/inverted trof/norlun feature on Saturday. Maybe some snow works out via a completely different setup tho I am extremely skeptical......extremely. I dont even want to consider looking at anything past late week at this time.

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mt Holly early am today on late week threat....
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Arctic high pressure continues to build into the region with temperatures some 15-20 degrees below normal for most of this week. Highs top off in the teens across the Poconos and northern NJ, low to mid 20s for most of southeast PA and central and southern NJ, and in the mid to upper 20s across the Delmarva Wednesday through Friday, with the coldest day being Thursday. Overnight lows during this time will range from the single digits to the teens, and as a result, the corresponding lowest wind chills will range from as low as 15 below zero in the Poconos, and from the single digits to as low as 5 below elsewhere. Conditions will be dry through Thursday night, and then the high moves offshore. Low confidence in the forecast from Friday through Sunday. There are stark differences between the 00Z operational GFS and the 00Z ECMWF. The GFS has a weak clipper system passing through the region Friday, and then low pressure forms well offshore Friday night. High pressure then builds into the region Saturday, followed by another weak clipper system Saturday night, and then low pressure forms off the Southeast U.S. Sunday night and Monday. The ECMWF, however, is slower to bring the clipper system on Friday, and does not bring it into the region until late Friday night. With a deeper and sharper upper trough, a secondary low forms off the Mid-Atlantic coast and phases with the approaching clipper system to produce a more significant coastal low over the area Saturday and Saturday night. The CMC- GDPS is dry through Friday, and then the clipper system passes through on Saturday and intensifies offshore on Sunday. As a result, in terms of sensible weather, will forecast slight chance/low chance PoPs for Friday, and then chance PoPs Friday night and Saturday, with PoPs lowering into Sunday. Will keep forecast relatively similar to previous forecast due to this low confidence. Stay tuned, as there is the potential for development late in the week/over the weekend. High pressure then returns for the start of the new week with cold and dry conditions with temperatures again some 15-20 degrees below normal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I feel like our area is in a Ryan Howard pattern where the atmosphere keeps throwing pitches low and away every other day and we keep swinging and missing. Eventually we will connect....maybe not a monster shot but an rbi double more likely. But you never know when we'll grab a hold of one and send it over the fence either.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ralph, how's CNJ looking with the latest guidance?
Depends which model u trust most but the hi res models like the 3k nam and rgem enhance the precip when the vortmax hits the coast which in laymans terms could yield max totals East of say I476 in SE PA. Again, that is pending the guidance being right. Few inches though looks likely.

 

Eta: Here's a pic of what Im trying to describe:8cf923e8c730f93fb36a336121944474.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Depends which model u trust most but the hi res models like the 3k nam and rgem enhance the precip when the vortmax hits the coast which in laymans terms could yield max totals East of say I476 in SE PA. Again, that is pending the guidance being right. Few inches though looks likely. 
Eta: Here's a pic of what Im trying to describe:8cf923e8c730f93fb36a336121944474.jpg&key=f24c6fabd7caa694d0f3d60b5265abda7bbd062cb884b836324a1c373cb2e078
Ralph, thx much
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
23 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:
Damn NAM got drier for immediate N and W of Philly...
nam.jpg.f597e90ea46ad6736955911b1f68f4f3.jpg

Yeah, definitely trending drier. Wish this were more of a true clipper and not a jet level disturbance moving across. Might squeeze out most of the precip West of the mountains. Sticking with a c-2" tho.

Same here...it's just flip-floppin. Tonight there will be more moisture then drier etc....bottom line 1" - 2" unless the mountains just kill it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is pretty typical of these systems around these parts.  very rarely do these systems produce much more than coatings.  Not much moisture to begin with, then down sloping to reduce the moisture further and extremely low dew points.  Coating at best is my guess.  Patterns like this suck.  Hopefully we cash in at some point, but I am not all that optimistic at this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, JTA66 said:

We'll also be battling low dews and virga. Just whiten the ground and I'll consider that a win. Still, despite lack SECS or better this month, most of us will end up with above average snowfall for Dec -- a big improvement over recent Decembers.

Yeah, I think this little baby could put a smile on this snow lover's face ☺!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...