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dryslot

NNE Winter Thread

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About 3 or 4 inches here in East Montpelier.  Winds have started cranking and snow is moving around.  I drug a Christmas tree across the yard this morning and evidence of that has now disappeared.  After a pretty disappointing day snow-wise things definitely started picking up around dark.

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I did an intermediate check of the snowboards at 9:00 P.M. and found 2.5” of new snow since the 6:00 P.M. clearing, so it hasn’t quite been 1”/hr over that span, but pretty close.  So we’ll certainly meet the 2” - 4” of snow that was in the point forecast for tonight.   Checking on the radar, you can really see how the wind shifts from an easterly aspect to a more westerly one, and then the moisture starts to slam into the western slopes:

 

04JAN18A.gif

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12 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

I did an intermediate check of the snowboards at 9:00 P.M. and found 2.5” of new snow since the 6:00 P.M. clearing, so it hasn’t quite been 1”/hr over that span, but pretty close.  So we’ll certainly meet the 2” - 4” of snow that was in the point forecast for tonight.   Checking on the radar, you can really see how the wind shifts from an easterly aspect to a more westerly one, and then the moisture starts to slam into the western slopes:

 

04JAN18A.gif

What radar site is this?  The intellicast boston and montreal McGill sites are not picking up any of these returns  

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3 minutes ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said:

What radar site is this?  The intellicast boston and montreal McGill sites are not picking up any of these returns  

 

That’s the Weather Underground BTV radar, which is really useful for close up radar images around the Northern Greens because of the dramatic changes in relief we’ve got in the area.  The mountains can easily block the lower beam angles, so we often go with Composite Reflectivity, (you’ll see that in the options on the page) since that brings in data from all the reflectivity angles and can help with respect to the beam being blocked by terrain.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/vt/burlington/cxx/

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Event totals: 7.6” Snow/0.39” L.E.

 

There don’t seem to be any issues with snow growth this evening around here, Mother Nature is making great use of the available moisture.

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 4.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.16 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 26.3

Snow Density: 3.8% H2O

Temperature: 14.2 F

Sky: Light Snow (2-12 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 16.0 inches

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7 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

That’s the Weather Underground BTV radar, which is really useful for close up radar images around the Northern Greens because of the dramatic changes in relief we’ve got in the area.  The mountains can easily block the lower beam angles, so we often go with Composite Reflectivity, (you’ll see that in the options on the page) since that brings in data from all the reflectivity angles and can help with respect to the beam being blocked by terrain.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/vt/burlington/cxx/

Thanks for the info,  Very helpful.

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Event totals: 8.1” Snow/0.43” L.E.

 

The snow density of this morning’s accumulation was twice what it was at midnight observations, and the flakes out there are tiny.  This is presumably in line with adk’s comments from yesterday about the very cold temperatures coming into the area and the effects on the dendritic growth layer.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 12.5

Snow Density: 8.0% H2O

Temperature: 2.1 F

Sky: Flurries (1-2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 17.0 inches

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31 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Event totals: 8.1” Snow/0.43” L.E.

 

The snow density of this morning’s accumulation was twice what it was at midnight observations, and the flakes out there are tiny.  This is presumably in line with adk’s comments from yesterday about the very cold temperatures coming into the area and the effects on the dendritic growth layer.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 12.5

Snow Density: 8.0% H2O

Temperature: 2.1 F

Sky: Flurries (1-2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 17.0 inches

Seems like there is a belt of 6-9" readings at about your elevation on the west/north side of Mansfield. Everywhere else is lower than that or wind blown into the sweet hereafter.  PF can chime in with exact details but I think from about 2500 feet up the snow is 0" to 36" as the wind had its way with things last night.  Once it gets 45+ with gusts into the 60s this light cold snow is in trouble. 

In other news, it is just horrible outside in BTV.  Low grey sky. Winds whipping snow around. Really terrible roads. Temp of 1.  

But take heart, the GFS says a change is coming. Been a really warm signal at around next Thursday for awhile now. No reason to not believe it. 

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Here’s the north to south listing of available 24-hour snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas, which should represent totals thus far from Winter Storm Grayson.  I’m not sure what’s up with the Stratton number (especially with Bromley and Magic, the two other points of the triangle, both reporting 9”), but it looks like a general 8-12” of accumulation up and down the state:

 

Jay Peak: 14”

Burke: 12”

Smuggler’s Notch: 12”

Stowe: 6”

Bolton Valley: 10”

Mad River Glen: 10”

Sugarbush: 8”

Middlebury: 8”

Pico: 12”

Killington: 12”

Okemo: 7”

Bromley: 9”

Magic Mountain: 9”

Stratton: 3”

Mount Snow: 9”

 

While checking the websites, I saw this Jay Peak pic of the day from Wednesday that I liked:

 

03JAN18E.jpg

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an inch overnight brought us to 4.5 inches for the storm.  It was still snowing lightly this morning.  It was dry and dense- like shoveling sand.

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2 hours ago, adk said:

Seems like there is a belt of 6-9" readings at about your elevation on the west/north side of Mansfield. Everywhere else is lower than that or wind blown into the sweet hereafter.  PF can chime in with exact details but I think from about 2500 feet up the snow is 0" to 36" as the wind had its way with things last night.  Once it gets 45+ with gusts into the 60s this light cold snow is in trouble. 

In other news, it is just horrible outside in BTV.  Low grey sky. Winds whipping snow around. Really terrible roads. Temp of 1.  

But take heart, the GFS says a change is coming. Been a really warm signal at around next Thursday for awhile now. No reason to not believe it. 

 

I’m taking heart; it would be great to get back up to something even seasonable for January.  Even warmer would be fine, especially if we could avoid going too far.  Precipitation could be a bit messier mid-month, but as usual we’ll have a better chance for more frozen up here than farther south.

 

The report from the Mt. Mansfield Stake yesterday evening was 41”, so we’ve passed the 40” threshold, and it should probably be a bit higher today.

 

05JAN18A.jpg

 

Since my morning report we’ve had steady light snow here today, but it’s been tiny arctic flakes in the 1-2 mm range so accumulations won’t amount to what they would have with more traditional upslope-style flakes.

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Still light snow and blowing snow in the BTV area. The roads are complete ****e. I am not sure if it is a failure on the part of those responsible for snow removal or just the wind pushing it on to roads.

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Event totals: 8.4” Snow/0.47” L.E.

 

The ratio of the 6 A.M. to 12 P.M snow accumulation is even below 10 to 1, indicative of how small the flakes have been and the environment in the snow growth zone.

 

Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 7.5

Snow Density: 13.3% H2O

Temperature: 2.7 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 18.0 inches

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3 hours ago, eyewall said:

Still light snow and blowing snow in the BTV area. The roads are complete ****e. I am not sure if it is a failure on the part of those responsible for snow removal or just the wind pushing it on to roads.

Our town did a great job of plowing when the main part of the storm ended early last evening.  Even as the wind was howling they applied the sand/salt mixture which doesn't work when it gets down below 10F.  Snow and drifting just recovered everything back up today. In situations like this I think its best to just let secondary roads get covered with hardpacked snow at least through tomorrow and then on Sunday as it moderates to apply road treatment and replow for drifted areas.  At least my thinking is for more level roads.  Hills need ongoing care.  Down south people panic with an 1" of snow.  Most cars (at least in NNE) are now all wheel drive.  Just keep speeds down and brake accordingly.  

Now freezing rain/ice is another story....

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Just below zero with bitter wind chills and a fresh 5 inches of snow (10 inches to a foot of depth). Yeah it's definitely winter :) I just wish there was not going to be -60 wind chills on the slopes tomorrow.

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1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Our town did a great job of plowing when the main part of the storm ended early last evening.  Even as the wind was howling they applied the sand/salt mixture which doesn't work when it gets down below 10F.  Snow and drifting just recovered everything back up today. In situations like this I think its best to just let secondary roads get covered with hardpacked snow at least through tomorrow and then on Sunday as it moderates to apply road treatment and replow for drifted areas.  At least my thinking is for more level roads.  Hills need ongoing care.  Down south people panic with an 1" of snow.  Most cars (at least in NNE) are now all wheel drive.  Just keep speeds down and brake accordingly.  

Now freezing rain/ice is another story....

Roads were mainly snow covered this AM - no surprise there - but not a problem for my small 2WD pickup, though I needed considerable wood ashes to make the first 5 feet in the driveway - pow on ice is a no-go.   I'm hoping that today the last 50 feet of town road gets plowed, so I'm not faced with choosing between removing the large pile (on the town road) that was created overnight, or having to pick up mail at the P.O. - only 2.5 miles, but that's a lot farther away than our mailbox.

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15 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Roads were mainly snow covered this AM - no surprise there - but not a problem for my small 2WD pickup, though I needed considerable wood ashes to make the first 5 feet in the driveway - pow on ice is a no-go.   I'm hoping that today the last 50 feet of town road gets plowed, so I'm not faced with choosing between removing the large pile (on the town road) that was created overnight, or having to pick up mail at the P.O. - only 2.5 miles, but that's a lot farther away than our mailbox.

The roads here were very much affected by the sandy nature of the snow and the pre-snow conditions which were damp.  Once that sleety/sandy/needle snow started to fall and the subsurface started to ice up, that was it. Roads in BTV are bad and will stay that way till we get some strong sun and crest the 10 of 15F marker.  That's when the salt will start working again. Given the GFS, this should be around tuesday and by Thursday we'll all be like "what bad roads"....GFS showing +6C air at 850 in 10 days. What would that verify to at 2M? 60?

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7 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

While checking the websites, I saw this Jay Peak pic of the day from Wednesday that I liked:

 

03JAN18E.jpg

Not to nitpick because I am likely biased, haha, but I look at that photo and while there's good snow, I think they reported like 13" overnight with no wind that morning. 

I can tell you without a doubt the 12" we had at Stowe looked significantly deeper than that, with trenches being left behind.  That looks like a 4-6-incher on that trail at least ;).

We'll call it a Stowe 12, ha.  Even the trenches on Liftline from "adk" looked much deeper.

26167212_10103283517750970_8986443069375

26171935_10103283708144420_5701889815866

 

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13 minutes ago, adk said:

The roads here were very much affected by the sandy nature of the snow and the pre-snow conditions which were damp.  Once that sleety/sandy/needle snow started to fall and the subsurface started to ice up, that was it. Roads in BTV are bad and will stay that way till we get some strong sun and crest the 10 of 15F marker.  That's when the salt will start working again. Given the GFS, this should be around tuesday and by Thursday we'll all be like "what bad roads"....GFS showing +6C air at 850 in 10 days. What would that verify to at 2M? 60?

I actually thought this morning was one of the slickest drives to the mountain I had up Mountain Road all season.  I don't know what it was but same thing, seems like there's a thin layer of black ice under the arctic tundra road that's partially snowpacked.

 

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9 hours ago, adk said:

Seems like there is a belt of 6-9" readings at about your elevation on the west/north side of Mansfield. Everywhere else is lower than that or wind blown into the sweet hereafter.  PF can chime in with exact details but I think from about 2500 feet up the snow is 0" to 36" as the wind had its way with things last night.  Once it gets 45+ with gusts into the 60s this light cold snow is in trouble. 

In other news, it is just horrible outside in BTV.  Low grey sky. Winds whipping snow around. Really terrible roads. Temp of 1.  

But take heart, the GFS says a change is coming. Been a really warm signal at around next Thursday for awhile now. No reason to not believe it. 

Yeah I honestly have no idea how much snow fell.

Our 6" stands out as low but if I don't know, I know I lean conservative in forecasting and snowfall sometimes.  As I wrote in the report this morning, there were large swaths of trail that had 0" and were completely wind scoured (like Hayride)... while there was a dense foot of snow in the woods, with tons of twigs and sticks and crap on the snow.

ho8cVf1.jpg

 

My logic was to take the 0" out in the middle of some trails and the 12" in the woods and call it 6".  My stakes rarely get hit hard with wind due to good sightings but not with this storm and the freight-train rolling through the mountains.

Some fun turns though for whatever the snow amount was.

26198057_10103286115031000_6151512527644

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Event totals: 8.6” Snow/0.49” L.E.

 

The flow seems really blocked right now based on the radar, but presumably we’re getting our snow blown in from the west, or it’s simply arctic stuff that’s under the radar.  In any event, it’s all been very small, arctic-style flakes, which is probably what we’re generally going to see during this cold stretch into the weekend.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: -3.1 F

Sky: Light snow (1 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 18.0 inches

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8 hours ago, eyewall said:

Still light snow and blowing snow in the BTV area. The roads are complete ****e. I am not sure if it is a failure on the part of those responsible for snow removal or just the wind pushing it on to roads.

Eyewall, buck-o, neighbor, fellow Vermonter...

There are many variables that affect road conditions.

A few include: ambient air temperature; traffic compaction of fallen snow/ice, wind, wind direction, consistency of snow/moisture content of snow, traffic limiting plowed truck maneuverability, rate of temperature drop/rise, ground temperature, brine (road salt + moisture) freezing temperature, solar radiation, future temperature trends, sand/salt availability  etc etc etc

Had to jump in to defend the state of the roads, it’s the second comment recently about plowing that I’ve read questioning the work that’s being done around the greater Burlington area.. There is So Much More To It than driving in circles on a route with your Plow down and your Salter spreading salt behind you.

Keep the faith, let the temp get above 10 or so, and things with start to improve.

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2 hours ago, grambo said:

Eyewall, buck-o, neighbor, fellow Vermonter...

There are many variables that affect road conditions.

A few include: ambient air temperature; traffic compaction of fallen snow/ice, wind, wind direction, consistency of snow/moisture content of snow, traffic limiting plowed truck maneuverability, rate of temperature drop/rise, ground temperature, brine (road salt + moisture) freezing temperature, solar radiation, future temperature trends, sand/salt availability  etc etc etc

Had to jump in to defend the state of the roads, it’s the second comment recently about plowing that I’ve read questioning the work that’s being done around the greater Burlington area.. There is So Much More To It than driving in circles on a route with your Plow down and your Salter spreading salt behind you.

Keep the faith, let the temp get above 10 or so, and things with start to improve.

Yeah, I don’t have a problem with the job the road crews have been doing. The problem is worse in high traffic areas because the snow  keeps getting ground and churned up but doesn’t melt. When you get away from stop and start side streets, this snow has been blowing off the travel lanes. I drove to Boston and back today and was actually surprised how good conditions were. 

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Temps didn't bottom out last night....guess the massive screaming winds I heard all night and low level cloud cover kept that from happening.  Pretty amazing that temps aren't going to budge from the -single digit readings currently showing despite an increase in sun.  Sometimes I guess, it's just REALLY cold. 

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