BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 Nice Christmas present for most of the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 Totals from last event. General 3-6" http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 The Christmas storm is completely gone for Rochester. Depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Nice Christmas present for most of the northeast What a shame for the big cities. I cant believe KBOS doesnt see snow, wow. It doesn't even look like KORH see's any snow. Man they must be bummed over in the NE thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: What a shame for the big cities. I cant believe KBOS doesnt see snow, wow. It doesn't even look like KORH see's any snow. Man they must be bummed over in the NE thread. No sympathies for Boston, they have been way above climo snowfall for the last decade+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: No sympathies for Boston, they have been way above climo snowfall for the last decade+ Funny, was gonna say the same thing, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 Look how sloppy that snow was. .66" of precip for 4.5" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Look how sloppy that snow was. .66" of precip for 4.5" of snow. It was sloppy for sure but some of that was definitely from the rain we had before the change to snow around 10:30am or so. Probably at least .10” of that was liquid not snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 I don't think anyone south of Buffalo gets over 40", would be surprised. The LES setup will not generate nearly as intense bands as Ontario. I'd say max south of Buffalo 3' max east of Ontario 5-6'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Honest question...if the NWS raised the snow accumulations in the northtowns and the winds will be gusting 45 mph with whiteouts and that map above says 6-8" why doesn't KBUF just issue a winter storm warning? The accums coupled with the gusty winds I would think meet the criteria, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Don't you think these maps are way overdone in areal coverage? They have me in the 24-30 inch range when I would gladly take a third of that. Even the city of Syracuse is in the 12-18 inch band. No way that's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, CNY_WX said: Don't you think these maps are way overdone in areal coverage? They have me in the 24-30 inch range when I would gladly take a third of that. Even the city of Syracuse is in the 12-18 inch band. No way that's going to happen. Its a horrific map for sure, Broad-brushed accumulations across the board. KSYR will be lucky to see 3" and I will be no where near 24-30", not happening anytime soon, here anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 It’s broad brushed but any fluctuation in wind direction can put you guys in the band. Especially later Tuesday into weds as winds veer even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Id love to know where they come up with these accumulation maps unless they expect insane ratios but even if its 25/1" it still doesn't equate to this map for many, so.... I think this is also very misleading to the public, at least those that even know how to find this map, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I don't know why folks go crazy over these snowfall maps. Nobody lives in those areas. Roc and Buf be lucky to see 6" over next week. Nickel and dime ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Most Meso and globals already busted on their forecast for today, as they had a band, that was supposed to form, on a NW flow, which never materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I don't know why folks go crazy over these snowfall maps. Nobody lives in those areas. Roc and Buf be lucky to see 6" over next week. Nickel and dime ****. What are you saying, no one lives in those areas? I don't get this statement, lol. I live in the 24-30" range and quite a few people live where I am. If your talking about the TUG then yes, Carol ( snow spotter in redfield for NWS) and a few others live in redfield, oh and SWVA's winter camp is up there, lol! I will be lucky to see 6" where I am, so to me its a complete clown map! Oh and I definitely tinkl KROC sees at least 3-5", so you guys will definitely see a white Christmas. Wait you would have one anyway even if it didn't snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Last minute northerly trend killed it for most of us wanting at least a few inches. I was looking at 700mb last night on a few models for Xmas system. Which is why I was thinking 3-6" was a better call for most of us. In fact, the low end far more likely with this setup. LES afterwards is impressive up on the Tug and central/northern Oswego cty but not much south of a Fulton to Central Square line. 285/290 flow actually means southern Tug is bullseye as channeling effect down the axis of the lake keeps single bands further North than NWP sometimes indicates. Oswego-Mexico should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I also think Blizzard conditions verify to the East of Both lakes but they'll never issue them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: I was looking at 700mb last night on a few models for Xmas system. Which is why I was thinking 3-6" was a better call for most of us. In fact, the low end far more likely with this setup. LES afterwards is impressive up on the Tug and central/northern Oswego cty but not much south of a Fulton to Central Square line. 285/290 flow actually means southern Tug is bullseye as channeling effect down the axis of the lake keeps single bands further North than NWP sometimes indicates. Oswego-Mexico should do well. I'm not concerned as I see at least a foot+ so for me, Thats a christmas miracle, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It’s broad brushed but any fluctuation in wind direction can put you guys in the band. Especially later Tuesday into weds as winds veer even more. Usually we get the "ye olde broom" effect SE of L.O. single band sweeps south, falls off the lake and collapses...transitioning to multibands and SN-. However, this time, looks more like it stays on the lake, which means southern Tug region and towns in Central/Northern Oswego cty do well for days. Some locations in So. Oswego cty may get winged for a few hours at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I think Fulton could do really well later on the 26th into the 27th. That map is ambitious for areas south of the tug but we all know it doesn't take long to pile up if the band is over you for awhile. I'm pretty sure these maps rightly smooth out the bands to account for the uncertainties in exact wind direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I'm just East of Fulton and just West of Central Square and I can still get missed, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Sure. Blizzard east of the lakes. Blah, blah blah. These go north all the time and it kills us. 1-2" in Roc. HRR and Nam 3k agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 hour ago, CNY_WX said: Don't you think these maps are way overdone in areal coverage? They have me in the 24-30 inch range when I would gladly take a third of that. Even the city of Syracuse is in the 12-18 inch band. No way that's going to happen. Thats a clown map. Seems KBUF is always too broad in terms of aereal placement for these multi-day events. I think the bullseye is usually well forecasted but outside of there, divide by 2 or 3... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 The new WRF has sort of a bow effect to the band which makes absolutely no sense to me TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Sure. Blizzard east of the lakes. Blah, blah blah. These go north all the time and it kills us. 1-2" in Roc. HRR and Nam 3k agree. Be content with your 1", if you manage to get that, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 BUF doesn't forecast for Onondaga county. I think u can blame bgm for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 We could do decent tomorrow afternoon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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