CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I'll be a stones throw away from a band that's producing 3-5"/hr for hrs the next three days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I'll be a stones throw away from a band that's producing 3-5"/hr for hrs the next three days! You’re going to chase right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: BUF doesn't forecast for Onondaga county. I think u can blame bgm for that. I agree and I think it should be apart of KBUF's as should Oneida CWA TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: We could do decent tomorrow morning.. That's actually tomorrow afternoon. Bad timing as it's right when my family is getting together and we have people traveling from the Utica area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Every model out there literally has a different solution, as far as placement and accumulations are concerned, and its mind-boggling that we can't accept one and lock it in. Its 2017 and we can't get an accurate LES forecast 24hrs in advance, and I think that's pathetic, considering the Supercomputers that are used to run some of these complex algorithms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 24 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I'm not concerned as I see at least a foot+ so for me, Thats a christmas miracle, lol! Yeah I think you will end up with a foot+ between the Xmas system and whatever LES materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 9 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Yeah I think you will end up with a foot+ between the Xmas system and whatever LES materializes. I'M 6 miles to your North so I think you definitely see this band in one form or another TBH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I'M 6 miles to your North so I think you definitely see this band in one form or another TBH! I agree we probably get clipped by it for a bit but I don't get as interested in LES unless NWP can show sustained 300-310 flow. It happens sometimes (a couple times last winter!) but it's rare to last more than a few hours and it's always weaker intensity. All said and done... I can pencil in 3-6" for here for LES and it's usually right 90% of the time without even parsing thru Bufkit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said: It was sloppy for sure but some of that was definitely from the rain we had before the change to snow around 10:30am or so. Probably at least .10” of that was liquid not snow... I had same effect here. I measured 0.26" rain and then 0.19" melted for 2.0" snow...slightly less than 10:1 for snow ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Cohen just posted this 4 hours ago...this is the GEFS ensembles the first on the left is to the 28th second is for new years...are we missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Cohen just posted this 4 hours ago...this is the GEFS ensembles the first on the left is to the 28th second is for new years...are we missing something? Yes, Cohen is terrible. Don Paul loves Cohen for some reason. The Mets on the New England forum call him out every winter. Him and Joe B are terrible. Most of the ENS show good snow for the interior northeast, but not for the populated areas. Here are the GEFS: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_12z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 BUF wWA for Livingston, Ontario and Monroe with 4-7". I'd love to see support for that. I see a giant hole over Livingston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Humbug! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVA01 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: BUF wWA for Livingston, Ontario and Monroe with 4-7". I'd love to see support for that. I see a giant hole over Livingston. I agree. Down here I just cut anything forecasted in half. I feel like we rarely verify due to our distance from the lakes and downsloping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Every model out there literally has a different solution, as far as placement and accumulations are concerned, and its mind-boggling that we can't accept one and lock it in. Its 2017 and we can't get an accurate LES forecast 24hrs in advance, and I think that's pathetic, considering the Supercomputers that are used to run some of these complex algorithms. This storm and subsequent lake effect really is a crapshoot (at least early on) as cyclogenesis is basically taking place right on top of us then transferring to the coast. However the transfer on this one certainly looks slower than normal with a significant inverted trough remaining after the double barrel low eventually consolidates over Eastern Maine. That inverted trough (which appears enhanced by the great lakes thermal trough) will wreak havoc with the winds over Lake Ontario which really keeps a lot of us on the south shore in play early on and beats down forecast confidence. I mean a difference of as little as 5 degrees in wind direction can have a severe impact on the band location, we all know this. All that said, I can't believe how far West things have come. Definitely feeling nervous about the front end here and main event as that may be all I get! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 56 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yes, Cohen is terrible. Don Paul loves Cohen for some reason. The Mets on the New England forum call him out every winter. Him and Joe B are terrible. Most of the ENS show good snow for the interior northeast, but not for the populated areas. Here are the GEFS: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_12z/ensloopmref.html JB is not terrible, stop. He may not be that good with forecasting individual events, because he could care less about individual storms. He's a strong long range seasonal forecaster, and a damn good one at that. He was calling for a cold start to the Winter season while almost every other outlet, including the CFV2, Euro and almost every other seasonal forecast were all calling for above normal temps for December. We all know the outcome. Is he wrong sometimes, yes, we all are as it is not an exact science, and never will be, but saying he is terrible is just wrong, but that's my opinion about him. To each his own I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 7 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: This storm and subsequent lake effect really is a crapshoot (at least early on) as cyclogenesis is basically taking place right on top of us then transferring to the coast. However the transfer on this one certainly looks slower than normal with a significant inverted trough remaining after the double barrel low eventually consolidates over Eastern Maine. That inverted trough (which appears enhanced by the great lakes thermal trough) will wreak havoc with the winds over Lake Ontario which really keeps a lot of us on the south shore in play early on and beats down forecast confidence. I mean a difference of as little as 5 degrees in wind direction can have a severe impact on the band location, we all know this. All that said, I can't believe how far West things have come. Definitely feeling nervous about the front end here and main event as that may be all I get! I agree, and once I saw yesterdays Euro start to trend further North and West I was a bit concerned but now we're just toast if you ask me. We're likely to sea brief period of warm air advection snows followed by a wicked dry-slot that basically shuts whatever is falling off, then quickly transitions into heavy LES. Where, is anybody's guess at this point I think,, but some of these accum maps I've seen, are a bit ridiculous and way overdone, but not up in the Tug of course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 LOL valid 00Z Tuesday If you look from East to West where the 6" demarcation lies, that was in No. Ondaga 1.5 days ag and the dry slot made it as far North as Thompkins County and now its almost to thew Shore line, and continues to trend to the North! That's what happens with no -NAO or no high Latitude blocking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I'll be lucky to see 3" from this, lol, while 3 days ago it was advertising 6-8", lol! Toronto is sittin pretty that's for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I think the KBGM low end forecast looks good right now.. expecting them to revise downward this evening. If it wasn't XMas travel period they could probably drop the WWA's IMO, other than northern Oneida county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 KBGM is still not throwing in the towel! Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 319 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017 NYZ018-036-037-252030- /O.CON.KBGM.WW.Y.0019.171225T0200Z-171226T0000Z/ Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida- Including the cities of Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, and Utica 319 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Snow will begin by midnight. Plan on difficult travel conditions. Tree branches could fall as well. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches, are expected. * WHERE...Onondaga, Madison and Southern Oneida Counties. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...On Monday, winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Scattered power outages are expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods of snow and blowing snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Point and click gives me 10 inches by Tuesday. Tonight Snow, mainly after 11pm. Low around 26. East wind 6 to 13 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of around 3 inches. Christmas Day Snow before noon, then snow showers, mainly after noon. Areas of blowing snow between 11am and 1pm. High near 31. Breezy, with a west wind 11 to 16 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 5 inches. Monday Night A chance of snow showers, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Wind chill values as low as -4. West wind 14 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 34 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I think the KBGM low end forecast looks good right now.. expecting them to revise downward this evening. If it wasn't XMas travel period they could probably drop the WWA's IMO, other than northern Oneida county. I completely agree, as I dont think KSYR see's <1" and thats sad. Definitely no LES either until perhaps later on in the week which is still a crap shoot! Man how quick things took a turn for the worse but when I saw last nights EURO I knew we we're toast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 11 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Point and click gives me 10 inches by Tuesday. Tonight Snow, mainly after 11pm. Low around 26. East wind 6 to 13 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of around 3 inches. Christmas Day Snow before noon, then snow showers, mainly after noon. Areas of blowing snow between 11am and 1pm. High near 31. Breezy, with a west wind 11 to 16 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 5 inches. Monday Night A chance of snow showers, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Wind chill values as low as -4. West wind 14 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches. This forecast is gonna bust big time! Wait, your in Brewerton right, yeah I can see you getting 6-8" with lollis of 10 but this is mostly from LE and not the synoptic event. I don't know man, maybe they see things differently, but this is a horrible outcome after tracking this for 5 days, lol! First system warmed up to give rain, and now this one has trended so far N&W that we dryslot completely, lol, wow what a horrific turnaround! Don't look now but the EURO has a late week bomb again, but its a clipper and not a coastal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: This forecast is gonna bust big time! Wait, your in Brewerton right, yeah I can see you getting 6-8" with lollis of 10 but this is mostly from LE and not the synoptic event. I don't know man, maybe they see things differently, but this is a horrible outcome after tracking this for 5 days, lol! First system warmed up to give rain, and now this one has trended so far N&W that we dryslot completely, lol, wow what a horrific turnaround! Don't look now but the EURO has a late week bomb again, but its a clipper and not a coastal! Yup, 12z Euro has a no. Stream system phasing offshore for NYE period. Good storm for down east Maine and maybe the rest of eastern NE. Other than that, not seeing much out there right now unless NWP changes solution regarding NYE. Which could happen. GFS and GEM are suppressed, so a lot of room for re-convergence.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: You’re going to chase right? Nah, not in my car as Ill definitely crash or go off the road somewhere, lol! If I had a 4WD, then I wouldn't even hesitate, but not with Pirelli Low profile tires, lol. I tried once with my wife's Mazda Protege, and went off the road in Mexico so I learned my lesson. I took the, welcome to Mexico sign out as you approach Mexico, and they made me buy the town a new sign, lol! I couldn't believe it, but they sure did, and they made sure they got it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 9 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Nah, not in my car as Ill definitely crash or go off the road somewhere, lol! If I had a 4WD, then I wouldn't even hesitate, but not with Pirelli Low profile tires, lol. I tried once with my wife's Mazda Protege, and went off the road in Mexico so I learned my lesson. I took the, welcome to Mexico sign out as you approach Mexico, and they made me buy the town a new sign, lol! I couldn't believe it, but they sure did, and they made sure they got it too. LOL. Wrong sign to take out!! I am thinking of doing some chasing up north Tuesday as a distraction since I'm off work. Good news is I may not have to drive far to run into it. We'll see how I feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 KBGM has adjusted to model trends, forecast map reduced for their CWA, makes more sense now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVA01 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 This is just so typical. I feel like every storm has tracked north. I shoulda stuck to my guns. I feel like I've been toyed with all week (WNW/NW my arse). This thing is a straight W flow. Even Tim has packed it in. NWS has finally decided to decrease its snowfall. Point and click now 2-4. And that's it for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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