Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco 2


WxUSAF

Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, Interstate said:

The maps are pretty to look at

Yup...no doubt, but that 500 no matter how strong the high is gonna wreck the souls of some....

regardless, following an op run verbatim at 9 days is fools errand....But sure is something to sleep on.

that said, trends are our friends and on that Gnight.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
7 minutes ago, Kleimax said:

Lock it in

Imagine the watches and warnings for that:  "well folks for the first time in LWX history we will transition from a Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow to an Ice Storm Warning...and this forecaster would like to say Merry Christmas Holy Sh*** where's the Tylenol!"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It's one of those years where nothing makes sense.  Just go with it.  9 long days until Christmas.  

Best part is that it's not like this winter is on life support. We're in December. If this were Feb, I'd be concerned. Still, any snow would be amazing on or near Christmas

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Probably just the model going back and forth like it was. 2 runs later, it'll be different

We're only talking d8 now and this is right in ensemble wheelhouse. It might be different but it was a very bad run. No way to sugarcoat that. Consenus shifted noticeably slower (and warmer). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We're only talking d8 now and this is right in ensemble wheelhouse. It might be different but it was a very bad run. No way to sugarcoat that. Consenus shifted noticeably slower (and warmer). 

It is bad.  Forecast would be for Christmas mostly cloudy with showers high near 50.  Winds SW 10-20 mph.  Sucks but that's what it says.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

The highs and lows and ebbs and flows of these models are sickening. 

No doubt. It's an all or none proposition mostly. If the SE ridge is real we suffer through another crappy weather christmas. Get on the good side and worst case is chilly and dry or a white Christmas. 

If the opportunity wasn't presenting itself it would be much less of a roller coaster. We're due for a white Christmas right?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

No doubt. It's an all or none proposition mostly. If the SE ridge is real we suffer through another crappy weather christmas. Get on the good side and worst case is chilly and dry or a white Christmas. 

there are probably 2-3 ensemble members with a severe SE ridge/SW trough that might be skewing the mean. Better to look at individual members

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No doubt. It's an all or none proposition mostly. If the SE ridge is real we suffer through another crappy weather christmas. Get on the good side and worst case is chilly and dry or a white Christmas. 

If the opportunity wasn't presenting itself it would be much less of a roller coaster. We're due for a white Christmas right?

That's the frustrating part. We could potentially be so close to a memorable 2-3 week period. And yes we are due.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If E17 happens, I'll quit the board from happiness.

No you wouldn't. You would be miserable only getting 8 inches that doesn't stick to pavement when just a few hours away they are getting 2-3 feet and are snowed in for weeks. And a few lucky folks get buried in a rare Appalachian avalanche.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

e15 is far more likely. The GEFS isnt looking as bad as the mean lol...

You know...hypothetically...with the way the pattern looks in general, there very well could be multiple waves running along the back of a se ridge that produce multiple rounds of snow over a multiple day period. Sorta like a warmer version of jan/Feb 2015 in Boston. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro says "too North? How about too South?"

ecmwf_ptype_ma_35.thumb.png.7c5fd84ef628cb3872dee8f5380d6609.png

Rule #37 of being a Snow weenie. You never complain about snow being too far South or too far North on D5+ models. They will answer your request even more so. Want the storm North? Boom, you've got 70 and sun while folks in Michigan complain about mixing problems. Want it farther South? Boom, Atlantic freezes over

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...