pasnownut Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 11 minutes ago, Interstate said: The maps are pretty to look at Yup...no doubt, but that 500 no matter how strong the high is gonna wreck the souls of some.... regardless, following an op run verbatim at 9 days is fools errand....But sure is something to sleep on. that said, trends are our friends and on that Gnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 7 minutes ago, Kleimax said: Lock it in Imagine the watches and warnings for that: "well folks for the first time in LWX history we will transition from a Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow to an Ice Storm Warning...and this forecaster would like to say Merry Christmas Holy Sh*** where's the Tylenol!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Wonder what the GEFS sees through the next 5 days. Strange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: Wonder what the GEFS sees through the next 5 days. Strange It's one of those years where nothing makes sense. Just go with it. 9 long days until Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It's one of those years where nothing makes sense. Just go with it. 9 long days until Christmas. Best part is that it's not like this winter is on life support. We're in December. If this were Feb, I'd be concerned. Still, any snow would be amazing on or near Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Gefs definitely doesn't agree with the op with the speed of the front before Christmas. Warmer and slower for sure. Went in the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Gefs definitely doesn't agree with the op with the speed of the front before Christmas. Warmer and slower for sure. Went in the wrong direction. Probably just the model going back and forth like it was. 2 runs later, it'll be different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It's one of those years where nothing makes sense. Just go with it. 9 long days until Christmas. Found it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs definitely doesn't agree with the op with the speed of the front before Christmas. Warmer and slower for sure. Went in the wrong direction. Can we toss it? Please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Probably just the model going back and forth like it was. 2 runs later, it'll be different We're only talking d8 now and this is right in ensemble wheelhouse. It might be different but it was a very bad run. No way to sugarcoat that. Consenus shifted noticeably slower (and warmer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Can we toss it? Please It's an ugly run. We'll know if it's a blip soon enough. Time to focus on the med range threat next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're only talking d8 now and this is right in ensemble wheelhouse. It might be different but it was a very bad run. No way to sugarcoat that. Consenus shifted noticeably slower (and warmer). It is bad. Forecast would be for Christmas mostly cloudy with showers high near 50. Winds SW 10-20 mph. Sucks but that's what it says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It's an ugly run. We'll know if it's a blip soon enough. Time to focus on the med range threat next week. The highs and lows and ebbs and flows of these models are sickening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's an ugly run. We'll know if it's a blip soon enough. Time to focus on the med range threat next week. It's not a blip. We all know to go with the worst solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Is TT down for anybody else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, HighStakes said: The highs and lows and ebbs and flows of these models are sickening. No doubt. It's an all or none proposition mostly. If the SE ridge is real we suffer through another crappy weather christmas. Get on the good side and worst case is chilly and dry or a white Christmas. If the opportunity wasn't presenting itself it would be much less of a roller coaster. We're due for a white Christmas right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: No doubt. It's an all or none proposition mostly. If the SE ridge is real we suffer through another crappy weather christmas. Get on the good side and worst case is chilly and dry or a white Christmas. there are probably 2-3 ensemble members with a severe SE ridge/SW trough that might be skewing the mean. Better to look at individual members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 E17 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Ridge breaks down rapidly after the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: E17 LOL If E17 happens, I'll quit the board from happiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: No doubt. It's an all or none proposition mostly. If the SE ridge is real we suffer through another crappy weather christmas. Get on the good side and worst case is chilly and dry or a white Christmas. If the opportunity wasn't presenting itself it would be much less of a roller coaster. We're due for a white Christmas right? That's the frustrating part. We could potentially be so close to a memorable 2-3 week period. And yes we are due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 If you want to go to sleep happy, just look at the snow mean through day 16, and be happy. Happy thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: If E17 happens, I'll quit the board from happiness. e15 is far more likely. The GEFS isnt looking as bad as the mean lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: If E17 happens, I'll quit the board from happiness. No you wouldn't. You would be miserable only getting 8 inches that doesn't stick to pavement when just a few hours away they are getting 2-3 feet and are snowed in for weeks. And a few lucky folks get buried in a rare Appalachian avalanche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ji said: e15 is far more likely. The GEFS isnt looking as bad as the mean lol... You know...hypothetically...with the way the pattern looks in general, there very well could be multiple waves running along the back of a se ridge that produce multiple rounds of snow over a multiple day period. Sorta like a warmer version of jan/Feb 2015 in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 I think however this pattern develops, we'll score some snow. Either from luck, or the cold that pushes the SE ridge away either before or after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 I bet the GOA High redevelops to -AO after day8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Euro says "too North? How about too South?" Rule #37 of being a Snow weenie. You never complain about snow being too far South or too far North on D5+ models. They will answer your request even more so. Want the storm North? Boom, you've got 70 and sun while folks in Michigan complain about mixing problems. Want it farther South? Boom, Atlantic freezes over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Great euro run. Dosent even bother trying to even have a se ridge. Better that we are too north this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Even stronger signal for an event Friday. Maybe not much, but an event possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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