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December 9th 2017 Crusha or brusha?


WeatherFeen2000

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45 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

You guys need to stop living and dying with each NAM run.

Nothing really improved this run in terms of trough orientation, it's just that the jet dynamics were a bit stronger and so the precip field was more expansive and a bit more tucked in.

The 18z run could very well switch back. I wouldn't even pay attention to it unless we see major changes from the GFS and Euro.

 

1 down 1 to go.

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The northern stream acting as a kicker is right, it’ll limit how far NW this can get. But hopefully many of us can still salvage something. 

If it dIves in right it will create height rises on the EC.

NAM and UKMET and the GFS is adjusting west towards that.

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The GFS ticked slightly West, that was almost to be expected.

That's why I was willing to go up to 2" for Eastern LI.

Again, I said there could be snow, especially on LI.

I expect mostly sunny conditions West of the Hudson river with some high cirrus.

Epic backpedaling/cya bro.

So is this a trend or windshield wiper stuff with a tick back East later now is the question.
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11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

People give up way too fast

The tendency to write off potential events seems stronger this year than in recent years. Just sticking with probabilistic scenarios, my thinking from a few days ago that Friday-Saturday could bring parts of the region its first measurable snow event (a light accumulation) seems to have held up reasonably well. The pattern has a higher than climatological frequency of measurable snow events (1950-2016) for the relevant timeframe. The event around the 13th could be a bit larger. None of these are guaranteed outcomes, but I like how things are evolving.

if there is to be a KU-type event or a significant snowfall (widespread 6” or more amounts), I suspect that the second half of the month would be more favorable.

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The GFS ticked slightly West, that was almost to be expected.

That's why I was willing to go up to 2" for Eastern LI.

Again, I said there could be snow, especially on LI.

I expect mostly sunny conditions West of the Hudson river with some high cirrus.

What should I do with that .3 in Monmouth County ?

Give it back ? 

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Just now, PB GFI said:

What should I do with that .3 in Monmouth County ?

Give it back ? 

We need to see some type of run to run continuity before you can take it seriously. 

Nobody should be celebrating over one run or one model cycle. Anyone that's been around for awhile knows that there will still be more changes to come.

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Just now, PB GFI said:

Look at the RH field / I agree 

Better upper jet dynamic. Notoriously under modeled... better lift will be picked up by models over next 36 hours.. don’t expect a banger of a shift, but expect to see larger swath of accumulating light snows... let’s say 2-4 max... 1-2” common, anyone west of 84 and north of rockland are DOA other than mood flakes.. that’s my call

 

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

We need to see some type of run to run continuity before you can take it seriously. 

Nobody should be celebrating over one run or one model cycle. Anyone that's been around for awhile knows that there will still be more changes to come.

I don't disagree with the last part but you have to acknowledge the improvements at 500 out of the N branch 

These are usually poorly sampled in the mid range and can make or break a forecast.

I don't swing with every model , I posted . 2 to .3 when the euro OP showed zero and when the UKMET dropped .75

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32 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Better upper jet dynamic. Notoriously under modeled... better lift will be picked up by models over next 36 hours.. don’t expect a banger of a shift, but expect to see larger swath of accumulating light snows... let’s say 2-4 max... 1-2” common, anyone west of 84 and north of rockland are DOA other than mood flakes.. that’s my call

 

This was always a potential E of NYC threat.. 1-3" looks possible especially for those on the eastern end. Any closer though and you might be talking rain there. 2m temps on the GFS/NAM are in mid to upper 30s verbatim during the height of the event. For us up here in the NW... 25° w/ flurries in the air will just about do it.

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2 minutes ago, snywx said:

This was always a potential E of NYC threat.. 1-3" looks possible especially for those on the eastern end. Any closer though and you might be talking rain there. 2m temps on the GFS/NAM are in mid to upper 30s verbatim during the height of the event. For us up here in the NW... 25° w/ flurries in the air will just about do it.

Got 2 Xmas parties on sat.. I’ll take mood flakes 

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