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December 9th 2017 Crusha or brusha?


WeatherFeen2000

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After seeing the trends of the last 24 hours I am no longer confident that even far Eastern Long Island sees significant snow. The Hamptons out to the twin forks could possibly see a coating to as much as 2" if things play out favorably. West of there could see some mood flakes, perhaps a light coating. West of the Hudson river will probably be mostly sunny. 

As I mentioned yesterday, I didn't like the orientation of the trough axis which is greatly positive as the surface low is forming. So there is really no choice but for the system to track up and out vs up and in.

The only real thing that could have salvaged this setup at H5 would have been if the WAR suddenly trended much stronger and pushed the precip shield far enough West, but either way it's a bit of a strung out mess. 

The storm is weakening by the time it reaches the benchmark which doesn't help things either.

Overall it's a giant can of meh and has been for some time.

sketched_5a29473d6bb02.png

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Excerpt from NOAA AFD... they’re reluctant to make a call just yet 

 

 

The models in the past have shown a tendency to
miss the impact of upper jet dynamics, well away from the low
pressure. The models are indicating max winds in the jet close to
200 kt at 250 mb across northern New England. This could help push
precip a bit further north and west, especially if the flow is more
amplified than it is currently modeled.
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The idea of a decent event isn’t over, especially from the city east. Again it wouldn’t take huge changes to expand the snow west enough to at least I-95. A slightly more amplified pattern can do it. If you’re expecting something major out of this you’ll be disappointed, but a couple or few inches is on the table. 

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18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The idea of a decent event isn’t over, especially from the city east. Again it wouldn’t take huge changes to expand the snow west enough to at least I-95. A slightly more amplified pattern can do it. If you’re expecting something major out of this you’ll be disappointed, but a couple or few inches is on the table. 

Guys spike footballs in here before real sampling takes place.

The Southern feature just needed to be 6 hours slower and the N branch  ( poorly sampled ) dives in and allow the height falls all the way up the coast.

it's what the UKMET has been locked on to.

The " confidence " in here is palpable.

The NAM doesn't constitute a trend but represents what could happen if the N branch dives in just right.

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You guys need to stop living and dying with each NAM run.

Nothing really improved this run in terms of trough orientation, it's just that the jet dynamics were a bit stronger and so the precip field was more expansive and a bit more tucked in.

The 18z run could very well switch back. I wouldn't even pay attention to it unless we see major changes from the GFS and Euro.

 

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What I don’t get is people that make there thoughts clear... and continue to hammer home on it..move on, you don’t like it for more than a trace or less we get it.. no need to continually let the collective crowd know you still don’t like the set up... I have less than 0% chance of seeing snow, but I’m not commenting every day about how people need to stop paying attention to certain models blah blah.. same crap different year... u dont like the threat, move on and out of the threat thread 

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2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

What I don’t get is people that make there thoughts clear... and continue to hammer home on it..move on, you don’t like it for more than a trace or less we get it.. no need to continually let the collective crowd know you still don’t like the set up... I have less than 0% chance of seeing snow, but I’m not commenting every day about how people need to stop paying attention to certain models blah blah.. same crap different year... u dont like the threat, move on and out of the threat thread 

I'm not sure if this is directed at me or not, but it has nothing to do with my backyard. I don't really like this setup from a meteorological standpoint for anyone within this subforum. 

It's funny because I knew the NAM run had ticked West just based on the number of posts I missed while I was gone. So then I took a quick glance at the run and realized it was just typical NAM BS until proven differently. I think it's important that people keep very low expectations with this event and if it ends up developing into something more then we can be pleasantly surprised.

Personally I am hoping for a miss, but that has no bearing on my analysis.

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You guys need to stop living and dying with each NAM run.

Nothing really improved this run in terms of trough orientation, it's just that the jet dynamics were a bit stronger and so the precip field was more expansive and a bit more tucked in.

The 18z run could very well switch back. I wouldn't even pay attention to it unless we see major changes from the GFS and Euro.

 

I think the point here, though, is that this is not something to write off. This is yet again another thread the needle type scenario, but these scenarios have delivered numerous times over the pat several years. That being said, if you are expecting a MECS, then yes I believe you will be sorely disappointed. However, if you are looking for a few inches, especially east of the city, then you are well within the range of possibilities.
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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm not sure if this is directed at me or not, but it has nothing to do with my backyard. I don't really like this setup from a meteorological standpoint for anyone within this subforum. 

It's funny because I knew the NAM run had ticked West just based on the number of posts I missed while I was gone. So then I took a quick glance at the run and realized it was just typical NAM BS until proven differently. I think it's important that people keep very low expectations with this event and if it ends up developing into something more then we can be pleasantly surprised.

Personally I am hoping for a miss, but that has no bearing on my analysis.

Not really at u... I don’t think it’s going to be much of anything myself, nor am I changing my discussion based on a few runs, the same reason I refused to hug the UKIE/ggem combo. but i do believe each run is equally important to at least look at and discuss why it did what it did, I’m not gonna jump down anyone for posting the 6z nam for discussion... we all get it, there’s plenty of people that post and hug and wish... but I just ignore. that’s how others learn. Keep it a discussion, nobody in here’s getting paid for there Thoughts  lol

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