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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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Notice the VP200 tropical forcing(MJO) weakens or stalls when the solar wind/EEP peak every 20 days or so.There is research that shows solar indirectly driving MJO as well in winter months.

Solar is overall low at the moment(391.6 last 60 days) but every 20 days or so the coronal hole orbits around and that's when you have the spike for 6-10 days.Let's see the evidence.

Pay attention to the dips around Oct.7th-Oct 15,Nov 5th-Nov 15,And Dec 7th-Dec 13th.

Solar wind on the October days- 463,546.5,504.5 397.5,424,520.5,610

November-  565,467.5,426,466,431,552.5,569.5,593.5,485.5.  November actually had 2 coronal holes and these 2 dips match up perfectly.

December- 420,510.5,589.5,599,502,404,364

Almost a perfect match going by the solar wind/EEP levels when observing tropical forcing.So going by the pattern the MJO should have a brief stall/weaken then pick up steam soon but the next coronal hole orbit is Dec 30th and where ever the MJO is then it will stall and weaken again most likely.

Anyway just my opinion.

 

 

Dud355bUUAECIut.jpg large.jpg

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So we're within 10 days of Christmas. Most models are indicating cool/cold temps. The FV3-GFS has highs in the 40s with lows ~freezing for both Christmas Eve and Day. It has support from the Canadian (which is colder) and the European.  It doesn't have support from the (older) GFS; which would have Christmas with upper 50s to mid 60s for highs. 

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4 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

So we're within 10 days of Christmas. Most models are indicating cool/cold temps. The FV3-GFS has highs in the 40s with lows ~freezing for both Christmas Eve and Day. It has support from the Canadian (which is colder) and the European.  It doesn't have support from the (older) GFS; which would have Christmas with upper 50s to mid 60s for highs. 

Sounds like the discussion going on the exact same time last year!? Hopefully the hammer of cold drops in on us like last year!!

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Sounds like the discussion going on the exact same time last year!? Hopefully the hammer of cold drops in on us like last year!!

I don't see any huge arctic push of air in the LR (from models). The pattern setup isn't right. We need to get some blocking; and specifically we need to get the PNA more positive. On the Fv3 it would drop what cold air is in NA out west and not towards us. Even when we get cold air it's quick shots that come and go. 

But when we do get into that "favorable" pattern, we could score big time (...for more of the board); because of the parade of storms we keep getting.  

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How come every single time we have this magical unicorn, aka-SSW event, always sends the arctic cold to Europe first?! Then we may just get sloppy seconds, stale cold!? Guess it doesn’t matter what miracles we pull out, how great the winter was “?suppose” to be, we still suck at snow! On to the miraculous, backloaded Fab Feb

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Last nights and this morning models are in closer agreement for a cool Christmas. Overall 40/50s for highs and lows ~freezing.

Winter storms are looking more elusive with (limited) cold air first dumping into the west and then storms cutting into the lakes.   

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Checking in after the weekend, long range still looks pretty cruddy to me.  As long as the long range doesn't look like this January 1 I'm ok.  However the one thing that may be happening below is the European / Scandinavian ridge may be starting to poke up to the pole and create the -AO/-NAO like back in November.  We'll see. Anyway, not giving the strat stuff any kind of validity.  It's the unattainable unicorn.  My hope is the MJO and Nino Climo getting back on track during nino climo time mid January.  

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

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On 12/11/2018 at 2:26 PM, griteater said:

The tropical forcing is now centered in the western Indian Ocean.  If we keep with the current cadence, it should reach the western hemisphere by early January (Phase 8), which, if timed with a weakening stratospheric polar vortex, would give valid reasons to be optimistic for a wintry January.

For the rest of December, I think getting a winter storm is going to require more luck than normal.

I remain bullish on a wintry January.  Here's the latest VP MJO chart showing what should be a return to El Nino-like phases 7-8-1-2 for January.  And there's no doubt that the stratospheric PV will be weakening to close out December.  The 2nd chart shows an official SSW on each of the last 4 runs of the GEFS Mean (zonal winds below 0) - other models have the SSW or show a strong weakening.  If we go for the jugular with the forecast, we could envision the Pacific pattern (-EPO/+PNA) becoming favorable for cold in the eastern U.S. in early-mid January, with the high latitude pattern (-AO/-NAO) becoming favorable for trapping the cold air in place in mid-late January. 

7Cl8lep.gif

AfeMH4p.gif

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Euro has a deep trough and closed ULL also.  Wish it was colder and some folks could get some snow.  Mountains should pick up some, but it looks unlikely for anyone else.

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It’s way, way out there but should be noted for potential trends that it had a severe ice storm for most of the piedmont in NC and SC.

 

 

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I didn’t know that they had this product but the weeklies have a 45 day snow mean. It has about 4” for chapel hill. Wrap your head around that. There could be some very good times ahead. 

 

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1 hour ago, Queencitywx said:

I didn’t know that they had this product but the weeklies have a 45 day snow mean. It has about 4” for chapel hill. Wrap your head around that. There could be some very good times ahead. 

 

Where you seeing that?

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2 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

It’s way, way out there but should be noted for potential trends that it had a severe ice storm for most of the piedmont in NC and SC.

 

 

For when?  How far out?

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