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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread

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It is amazing this season how many times we have seen a promising pattern appear on all LR ens only to fizzle out under 180 hours. Next week looks like yet another example of this. The period I was originally keying on is looking less favorable, no doubt. I was not expecting the SER to flex 'as much' as models are now indicating. Looked at first as though it would act as a steering mechanism to force moisture N into our region as the progressive NS helped to keep the cold locked in but now we are seeing the reverse signal (stronger ser/weaker ns) with the boundary setting up farther N. Still a chance I suppose, but fading. Peak climo is passing us by quickly......hopefully the 3 week period Newman is keying on can produce.

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Although the SSWE looks fairly impressive, one thing I would be worried about is the split causing the blocking to occur in Russia/Asia and then eventually retrograding into our areas. If that occurs, a total Northern Hemisphere shift will need to occur and we'll be looking at the blocking not forming until mid March (about a month lag). 

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Although the SSWE looks fairly impressive, one thing I would be worried about is the split causing the blocking to occur in Russia/Asia and then eventually retrograding into our areas. If that occurs, a total Northern Hemisphere shift will need to occur and we'll be looking at the blocking not forming until mid March (about a month lag). 
Several modeling tools are signaling what you mentioned with trof in Russia/Asia and ridging in N AM. There are a few outlets jumping on this and going with an early spring for us. I wouldnt mind March fishing in a light jacket this year as opposed to tundra gear like the past few tbh.

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3 hours ago, Newman said:

This winter hasn't thrown us a classic Nina pattern, but the lack of a true southern jet has helped contribute to a lack of snowstorms, or at least it seems that way.

Actually it has - https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/how-el-niño-and-la-niña-affect-winter-jet-stream-and-us-climate

In either scenario, we tend to often be in the "50/50" category vs those farther north or farther south.  CPC is anticipating a move towards ENSO neutral per their latest discussion - http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Ninos_ninafirst_620.jpg

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3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
4 hours ago, Newman said:
Although the SSWE looks fairly impressive, one thing I would be worried about is the split causing the blocking to occur in Russia/Asia and then eventually retrograding into our areas. If that occurs, a total Northern Hemisphere shift will need to occur and we'll be looking at the blocking not forming until mid March (about a month lag). 

Several modeling tools are signaling what you mentioned with trof in Russia/Asia and ridging in N AM. There are a few outlets jumping on this and going with an early spring for us. I wouldnt mind March fishing in a light jacket this year as opposed to tundra gear like the past few tbh.

I wouldn't mind an early spring as well. By March, I'm ready for severe weather season and golfing. I like snow whenever we get it, but March/April snowstorms don't have the same feel as they do in January/February.

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10 minutes ago, Newman said:

I wouldn't mind an early spring as well. By March, I'm ready for severe weather season and golfing. I like snow whenever we get it, but March/April snowstorms don't have the same feel as they do in January/February.

March/April snowstorms are absolutely depressing to me. By March I am in full spring warmth mode. The only positive is that any late season snows tend to melt rather quickly under a stronger sun.

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13 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Lol 18z gfs has pdIII. The eagles won the super bowl. Anything is possible...

I'm totally ok with you not having to wait 5 years for snow, just so you know!

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So far today 0.62" of rain - for the MTD we are at 2.96" of water equiv which is 1.76" above normal. YTD we are at 5.49" or 0.49" above normal through today. The good news is WXSIM forecasts another 3.39" by Monday AM. That would be great for the Township farmers as we are well below normal over the last 18 months. 

Best news of all is pitchers and catchers report next week - Go Phils!!

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I know he hasn't posted here for a while, so he probably won't see this, but I read in the Mt. Holly forecast discussion this evening that Mitchell Gaines is moving from Mt. Holly to Binghamton this week. Thanks Mitch, and good luck!

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Radar looks like there's a fire hose ready to unleash through the entire area. I think 2-3 inches is a given but definitely see spots of 5"+. If only this was all frozen... :lol: we may see some flooding of some big waterways though tomorrow night. This is going to be a widespread 3" event imo

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2 hours ago, I Like Snow said:

This winter has been one giant punch in the face.

It's behaving similar to a couple of the top analogs 1990 and 2006. Winter hit in the first half and has been essentially absent post Jan 9th. But yeah just as i feared early in the month we are headed for a possibly historic wet month with near or below normal temperatures and very little snow, something extremely difficult to do in prime time Jan or Feb.

For added punch in the gut Algeria Sahara desert region in Africa has had a snowstorm for the second consecutive winter after a 40 year absence and a rare snowstorm in Tehran, Iran. 

 

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7 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

I know he hasn't posted here for a while, so he probably won't see this, but I read in the Mt. Holly forecast discussion this evening that Mitchell Gaines is moving from Mt. Holly to Binghamton this week. Thanks Mitch, and good luck!

Thanks for the heads-up.  I usually read the AFDs in the early morning (3am - 4 am one) and afternoon (3pm - 4pm one) but not so much the evening ones, which is where I found the mention...


Given this is my last scheduled forecast shift (departing for
WFO BGM next weekend) I want to say thank you to everyone for
giving me the opportunity to serve and provide updated weather
information to you. It has been a great honor.

Wishing Mitchell good luck with that move as well and I expect if he did post again, he could check in to one of the NY forums.  Of course he is always welcome here. :)

To throw an obs in - Got 0.37" rain yesterday and am at 0.33" at post time with light rain, some dense fog, and 48F.

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On the long range front.. may be time to throw in the towel on winter. Once again the good pattern setting up in the long range is a mirage. We may get a fluke event but overall it looks like all she wrote. Hoping we can torch and get an early start to thunderstorm season.

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As for this storm. Heavy rain at the moment. Up to 1.31" on the day. Still a lot of precip to go though it looks like we will get a bit of a break as the warm front lifts north.

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I guess the red winged blackbirds are better at long range forecasting than humans and their super computers. They have been back in the trees behind my house singing and calling since last week. Usually I don't see or hear them until late Feb or early March. 

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