Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    joxey
    Newest Member
    joxey
    Joined

Late autumn, early winter model mayhem

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted
10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Tip, I've always loved your descriptions of this storm.  It was before my time and where I am currently was outside of the absolute worst conditions, but it was intense enough based on the obs and accounts I've come across.  Certainly one I would love to see in my lifetime, and a big part of my interest would be in how modern modeling would look for such an extreme event.  

Yeah ...I've reminisced about that one a few times over the years.   ...some events we hold dear .. I'm just lucky enough that for winter extremes, the one just happens to be the utmost highest tier. 

There may have even been storms in continental history since the arrival of science .. that out paced both the CSB and the Feb 5-7, but just in terms of my life, those two are probably tied for 1st in better fairness - it's just that I was specific to "my experience." 

But I feel I have to give a nod to the storm that took place here in New England because though I was not around here, I moved to this region of the country as a late adolescent a mere 6 years after 1978, and thus have spent most of life here at this point.  I have been steeped in both anecdotes and science on the matter enough that my opinions are fully marinaded; I believe the truth in ranking those system right up there to together. 

This isn't just for you per se ...but:   In fact, the science part?  If one goes back and looks at the chart/evolutions leading both, there are remarkable similarities. By stricter rules and conventions for determining analogs, they [probably] won't. However, from 200,000 foot perspective ...if perhaps holistically, they were dead nuts the same event: the atmosphere duplicated its self 500 miles farther east on the second tempest. Struggling to quantitatively compare ... both featured southern waves, however more or less discerned (the CSB had more...) that 'enticed' a chunk of N-stream quasi-closed parcels to careen S and bully the atmosphere ... subsuming. It's like an economics, when a small start-up invents a product that an 800 pound gorilla then aggressively buys out the company so they own the rights and then use their resource wherewithal to mass produce...  .... Muse aside, the end result of both, was similar. The southern wave was no longer even identifiable as the whole merged structures than formed about the purest phase as is physically possible - it's seems all phasing scenarios leave something of a percentage behind ...but those two both ended up about the purest distillation of that... above the 90th percentile .. It's probably calculable staring with the q-geostrophic vorticity equations and going on a partial derivative hunt.  ...but just trust one's eyes, you know?  

Here's the thing ... one can really really see in both those cases, how one gets it done, and the other is all dress and no substance.  The black and white chart with red annotations on the left are those run up synoptic sequences to the Cleveland Superbomb... I don't have the Feb 5-7 1978 below, but it was similar in the general behavior.  On the right is the present day/time GFS 8-10 mean as provided by PSU E-Wall (employed to exemplify the point).

synop1.thumb.jpg.7809babe4266daac5b0ab2564a499d6d.jpg   

However, as we've been discussing... this is not an absolute limitation.  Those don't exist in the pandemonium of the atmosphere ... It's like certitude in the atmosphere is as elusive as attempting to reach the speed of light ... can't really achieve that.  It's just that the atmospheric circulation type on the right requires very powerful S/W mechanics to overcome ...If we are looking for snow in the air, however, we can get that much achieved in either case.  Timing is critical ...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Truth is, I do think the chances of a large event are elevated relative to climo between now and xmas eve, however I feel that it will take until near xmas eve and beyond for one to actually matierlize...if that makes sense. 

Not trying to equivocate, nor speak in absolutes...so hopefully that is clear.

I think down the road a bit not only does climo become a friend rather than a foe, but we should also develop some NAO assist and as the whole pattern peaks and abates a bit, our Archambault window opens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Truth is, I do think the chances of a large event are elevated relative to climo between now and xmas eve, however I feel that it will take until near xmas eve and beyond for one to actually matierlize...if that makes sense. 

Not trying to equivocate, nor speak in absolutes...so hopefully that is clear.

I think down the road a bit not only does climo become a friend rather than a foe, but we should also develop some NAO assist and as the whole pattern peaks and abates a bit, our Archambault window opens.

This timeline is  also congruent with Doug Simonian's take RE when the PV elongates, which Steve referenced.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

20 inches Dec 5th ,03, fantastic storm

That was definitely a great storm, 24" of powder here with many hours meeting blizzard criteria.  However, I think Modfan is thinking of the 30"+ dump on ORH in Dec. 1992.

Maybe somebody can refresh my memory but as a wee little lad I remember being stuck on an airplane forever during a big December storm in 1971. 

Dec 1970 had a lot more biggies for New England than 71, though parked airplanes don't always need much of a storm to remain parked.

Back to models - looks pretty dry for inland NNE, though still time for change.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, tamarack said:

That was definitely a great storm, 24" of powder here with many hours meeting blizzard criteria.  However, I think Modfan is thinking of the 30"+ dump on ORH in Dec. 1992.

Maybe somebody can refresh my memory but as a wee little lad I remember being stuck on an airplane forever during a big December storm in 1971. 

Dec 1970 had a lot more biggies for New England than 71, though parked airplanes don't always need much of a storm to remain parked.

Back to models - looks pretty dry for inland NNE, though still time for change.

which airport

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...