Burghblizz Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 13 minutes ago, Mailman said: Weird that they take a 60 hour timeframe and consolidate it in to an “event” map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I haven't looked at them... is there any ensemble support for Sunday-->Monday? Euro op and CMC op aren't showing anything like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: Euro a little better but it never allows this to phase and increase heights infront of it. Also some nice hits on the gefs. Our friends down in WV and the PA border should pay close to attention to this. I’m trying but just 2 days ago it showed a monster event for the whole subforum, then yesterday the whole system shifted below PA border-I’ll get excited come Friday if it shifts north a few ticks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 45 minutes ago, Mailman said: I haven't looked at them... is there any ensemble support for Sunday-->Monday? Euro op and CMC op aren't showing anything like the GFS. Euro there's a few hits but a majority of them are south. Let's see if it trends again. It made a huge jump between 0z and 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Yeah I'm personally waiting for NAM range. The 12Z Icon was a miss to the south, no phase, but the 18Z is just rolling out. I think right now the overall majority favor a southern slider, so there's still some work to do. UKIE and GFS are on their own for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Heavy Graupel and 30 mph wind with this little squall front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Burghblizz said: Weird that they take a 60 hour timeframe and consolidate it in to an “event” map Isnt there a little low zipping by tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 GFS took a step back. Yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 316 PM EST Wed Mar 7 2018 OHZ040-041-050-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ001>003- 509>513-082030- Carroll-Columbiana-Jefferson-Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler- Clarion-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene- Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette-Fayette Ridges-Hancock- Brooke-Ohio-Monongalia- Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston- Eastern Preston-Western Tucker- 316 PM EST Wed Mar 7 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania, west central Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and northern panhandle of West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. After a lull Thursday morning, snow shower coverage is expected to increase for Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, with a few inches of accumulation possible. Winter weather advisories may be needed. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 hour ago, DanTheMan said: Isnt there a little low zipping by tomorrow night? Yeah, there’s a closed vort dropping right down through our area tomorrow evening. Some lake enhancement might allow a few spots to receive as much as 4 or 5” by Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Lake effect??? There's a piece of energy that swings down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 hours ago, jwilson said: Yeah I'm personally waiting for NAM range. The 12Z Icon was a miss to the south, no phase, but the 18Z is just rolling out. I think right now the overall majority favor a southern slider, so there's still some work to do. UKIE and GFS are on their own for now. Agree on this. A decent hit is still in the envelope of potential tracks if you look at individual ensemble members. 18z GFS came in South too so that doesn't help provide any clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Agree on this. A decent hit is still in the envelope of potential tracks if you look at individual ensemble members. 18z GFS came in South too so that doesn't help provide any clarity. The one good thing is almost all of the ensemble members have plenty of juice, so it appears moisture won't be the issue. We really need a full phase or at least a diminished - if not completely eliminated - northern stream kicker. The GFS OP continues to flip-flop between runs which makes it extremely hard to trust either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Seriously can’t we get this to move 75 miles north??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 The blocking isn’t crazy cold where that moisture won’t be able to nudge north a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 It always ends up coming north.. right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, Mailman said: It always ends up coming north.. right? Only when it screws us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 00z GFS is south like 18z. Far cry from the 12z glimmer of hope that we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 GFS/Euro/ GEM/ it doesn't matter. This sunday-monday storm is toast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 The long-range NAM looks weird. It brings in a 50/50 low (not quite but close) late and then actually moves it towards the West, hanging stationary over Maine for hours and hours. That seems to be the primary feature preventing the southern storm from gaining latitude. Eventually it does eject and the storm starts riding up the coast, far too late and keeps all precip under the Mason-Dixon line. The fact that we don't have one northern solution is a tad concerning. Suppression in March is quite unusual, though. Also, we'd probably be uncomfortable if we we under the bullseye at this range. A late north trend isn't uncommon, by any means, so I think the end question becomes how far north can this eventually come? I think for Western PA, anything but a full phase won't get it done. I'm not ready to give up, but we're pushing the tempo, that's for sure. The look overall screams classic Miller A to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 I would love to see a map of PA for 10" storms over the past 8 years. Something tells me our pocket of the state is the only spot who hasn't seen one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Seems like tonight into tomorrow has fallen completely apart for down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, Mailman said: Seems like tonight into tomorrow has fallen completely apart for down this way. It seems like guidance continues to weaken the energy dropping down unfortunately. It might take a persistent band for anyone to reach 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 The next storm is dead in the water as of now. I'll check the 12z euro and if there's no positive trends im done with this one. It's annoying that we get the block and we can't buy any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: The next storm is dead in the water as of now. I'll check the 12z euro and if there's no positive trends im done with this one. It's annoying that we get the block and we can't buy any snow. Probably one of the most disappointing 30 day periods of winter I've seen. Last winter was already a dud before the well advertised February torch, but this winter actually had some promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 39 minutes ago, Mailman said: Seems like tonight into tomorrow has fallen completely apart for down this way. According to HRRR....Unless you are north of I-80 under a pro-longed band, everyone is looking at less than 1 inch in snow showers tonight. Even the smallest of snow potentials are shifting away from us. I was just out walking the dog and the sharp cold wind was getting to me. If we aren't getting any storms let's get the warmer weather in here and hope for spring storms again. Then in the winter of 2018-2019 we can hope for our big storm. (lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 On a positive note, Kevin stallings no longer coaches pitt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, Mailman said: Seems pretty generous to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 4 hours ago, SteelCity08 said: I would love to see a map of PA for 10" storms over the past 8 years. Something tells me our pocket of the state is the only spot who hasn't seen one. I'd be curious when the last time was that all of PA got snow from the same storm. Recent history makes me think it has never happened. Storms have hit north and south, but never right in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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