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Pittsburgh PA ❄️ Winter 2017-2018


north pgh

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I've been trying to avoid this one figuring the rug is going to get ripped out from underneath us once again. I just glanced at the NAM and GFS. Talk about a huge difference. GFS gives me 4 inches while the NAM gives me 15 inches. lol I seriously doubt it's going to be anywhere close to the NAM. I know the NAM has done well recently but I don't think it's taking the marginal temps and slop into account. GFS is probably going to be closer on this one. I'd be OK with somewhere in between. 

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2 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

My weenie brain might be way off, but i can't remember the NWS issuing a WWA 30 hrs in advance.

So my theory is that KPIT wants to upgrade to a WSWarning eventually, but will stay with the WWA until the 00z model data is complete. This provides wiggle room in case the models start trending the other way.

Agree...and a good tactic too.

Confidence isn’t high enough for county averages of 8” (and that’s what would be needed due to the duration).

But....with the upside that exists, better to get a headline of some sort out there. 

I did actually once read that the NWS doesn’t consider an advisory a “downgrade” from a Winter Storm Watch, just one of the possible progressions (but of course, the warning criteria has to have a sufficient chance)

So in that way, a watch could be used, but I guess their projection of the warning chances are just too low. 

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With respect to big storms late in the season:

Interesting that this shows up on NWS Twitter. I don’t like the way they did this because there are some duplicates since the storms spanned more than one calendar day. But it gives you an idea of the history of snow this late in the season or beyond.

Also...despite the fact that about 40% or our “top 10 type storms” overall have come in the last 30 years , the late season storms are more the good ole days:

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSPittsburgh/status/975829188291674112/photo/

Like any other snow record, I think single location records can be deceiving because certainly parts of the area could have had storms with more impact, but just weren’t as much at the official station. But nonetheless, it would be a pretty rare event to crack 6” after March 20th

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I wasn't paying attention to this storm until this afternoon when a coworker mentioned the WWA. Something tells me I should just check out now, cuz this has big fat disappointment written all over it haha. After all, ignorance is bliss. (But deep down inside I'm really hoping that we have a pleasant surprise!) 

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NAM is overall a touch colder for us (good), and is creeping that heavier precip a little south. The 12K taken literally has a nice little 15” lollipop in the mon valley.

But then it gets tight to the north with 4” in Butler county.

Who the hell knows?? Gut feeling is a general 3-6”, but someone in the suburbs (say above 1100’) May hit 10”

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13 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

NAM is overall a touch colder for us (good), and is creeping that heavier precip a little south. The 12K taken literally has a nice little 15” lollipop in the mon valley.

But then it gets tight to the north with 4” in Butler county.

Who the hell knows?? Gut feeling is a general 3-6”, but someone in the suburbs (say above 1100’) May hit 10”

I'm above 1100'. Haha. I'll be happy with 6 but we are due for a surprise.:snowwindow:

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7 hours ago, Burghblizz said:

NAM is overall a touch colder for us (good), and is creeping that heavier precip a little south. The 12K taken literally has a nice little 15” lollipop in the mon valley.

But then it gets tight to the north with 4” in Butler county.

Who the hell knows?? Gut feeling is a general 3-6”, but someone in the suburbs (say above 1100’) May hit 10”

Yeah, I like your call, 2-4 seems a bit underdone, but I think 3-6 is doable for most of us.

NWS isn't putting much stock in the first wave, so if we can managed to end up with 1-2 from that somehow during the day that should work in our favor to lay a good base down for whatever manages to fall over night. I doubt we see warnings unless 12z guidance really pounds us, confidence is lower than normal given uncertainty with how long it will take for snow to overcome warmer temperatures.

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At this point, I'll take my 2-4" and run.  I don't feel confidence in much of the guidance.  The NAM has been all over the place, really struggling with this system.  Precip has moved north, north, north, south, south . . . it can't decide.  Sprays snow all over the map, sort of like, "I don't know what's happening, but one of these will be right!"  Should have just made a trip to the mountains for this one.

The Euro and GFS carve out a snow hole, so I'll probably ride those and assume I get next to nothing.  The 0Z Euro drops ~10" on PIT, though.  Sweet spots Allegheny for you folks.

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This is definitely one of those systems you have to take the models with a grain of salt. The NAM is still giving me a foot and GFS about 7 to 8 inches. Not happening. The NWS knows it. Still saying 2 to 4 with an advisory. Models struggle more this time of the year not taking the marginal temps and sun angle into account as much. I mean, you can still get accumulating snow during the day if it's heavy enough, but it can be a struggle overall. We won't get much at all today. Once the sun goes down, which is now at 7:32, we'll start seeing our accumulation.

 

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1 hour ago, cwc said:

what are you guys smoking?  2-4, max.

I dont even understand how there is 6, 10, 15" being thrown around.

Who is throwing around 15” except weenie maps?

i think cutting the general model consensus in half would be about 3-6”. I think that is doable. Also keeping in mind > 6” this time of year is very rare historically. 

That said....a lot of models are painting that little sweet spot, so I wouldn’t be shocked if some suburban locations do better. Certainly not widespread better

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Listening to The Fan right now doing the weather forecast, which I assume they get from KDKA, and they're telling everybody 6 to 10 inches. Where the hell did that come from? I can't see KDKA calling for that. They're usually ultra conservative. If The Fan screwed that up reading it, way to spread bad info.

 

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