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north pgh

Pittsburgh PA ❄️ Winter 2017-2018

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I'm starting to bite on the models showing some decent blocking getting established in about 10 days or so, they have been pretty consistent and it doesn't appear to get pushed out in time. Hopefully this looks the same this time next week. Also looks like more hits to perturb the PV which would probably lead to blocking having some staying power and an overall -AO Dec with relaxation interludes only going neutral at worst. Getting way ahead of myself, but maybe an above average shot at a white Christmas, certainly a different look than the past couple Decembers.

 

DPjv-sjVAAAUPK2.jpg:large

DPjv-sjVAAAUPK2.jpg:large

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12 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I'm starting to bite on the models showing some decent blocking getting established in about 10 days or so, they have been pretty consistent and it doesn't appear to get pushed out in time. Hopefully this looks the same this time next week. Also looks like more hits to perturb the PV which would probably lead to blocking having some staying power and an overall -AO Dec with relaxation interludes only going neutral at worst. Getting way ahead of myself, but maybe an above average shot at a white Christmas, certainly a different look than the past couple Decembers.

 

DPjv-sjVAAAUPK2.jpg:large

DPjv-sjVAAAUPK2.jpg:large

Yeah, lot of chatter about a change next week.   Looks like it starts to trend colder with a frontal passage about mid next week.

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We are getting the cold. Now we just gotta get the precip. Looking at the weeklies the cold is there but the precip really isn't. One step at a time, but maybe we will get a white Christmas this year. 

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33 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

12z shows some pretty cold temperatures coming. Too lazy to post pics but get the cold first. 

Day 9-14... Looks chilly. Average high temps this time of year are in the low 40s to upper 30s. Could be real cold. 

Screen Shot 2017-11-28 at 12.43.01 PM.png

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We are getting the cold. Now we just gotta get the precip. Looking at the weeklies the cold is there but the precip really isn't. One step at a time, but maybe we will get a white Christmas this year. 

 

 

If the precip isn't there then I'll take what we have right now. Lol Cold and dry just means the heating bills go up and nothing to enjoy out of it. Hopefully, something develops so the cold air isn't wasted. We have a whole season still ahead of us but hate to see wasted opportunities, which we get a lot of every year.

 

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12 hours ago, blackngoldrules said:

If the precip isn't there then I'll take what we have right now. Lol Cold and dry just means the heating bills go up and nothing to enjoy out of it. Hopefully, something develops so the cold air isn't wasted. We have a whole season still ahead of us but hate to see wasted opportunities, which we get a lot of every year.

 

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As long as we get something, even if its just a couple clippers and some LES with dustings to an inch every other day I'd be alright with that through the holidays. After that though, if we are staring at -4 temperature departures with 2 inches of snow it does start to get old and the itching for a big storm or bust starts to grow. Just flipping through the 00z \ 06z GFS certainly looks like opportunities for some storms are in the mix. Good news is the pattern change keeps holding in place rather then getting pushed back in time. It may take this upcoming pattern to run its course and start relaxing before a big storm comes of it, and if so hopefully there is a quick reload afterwards.

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Way too early for anything specific. And I know that everyone has been documenting this period already, but I am very excited. Cold air is definitely on the way!

5a201441a7aff_ScreenShot2017-11-30at9_22_39AM.png.86c61a8f486af153d9bae55cdef74b70.png

 

I did a little reanalysis of the some senarios surrounding the NAO. The top graphic looks dry and that is reasonable to explain why the models aren't spitting out too much precip in the first few days of december. The strong -NAO yields neutral to slightly below average precip for the area. 

5a20158f41191_ScreenShot2017-11-30at9_28_12AM.png.d75d2b09053e24bff81ed928685a06a3.png

However, once the -NAO relaxes a little bit (the second week of Dec), we get into a more neutral NAO. More favorable for precipitation. Something to keep an eye on.

5a201740c1598_ScreenShot2017-11-30at9_35_30AM.png.48972313381ebcc33eb10aa58c0d8128.png

 

Its going to be an interesting couple of weeks. Good news is that we are starting this winter off with a decent chance to see something. At least the cold air is here. Now we just have to see if the precipitation can come along with it.:snowing: Happy Tracking!!

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Well boys we got some tracking to do. The newest GFS shows a nice storm on the 8th for the usual suspects. Lucky for us this is a week away. We've seen historical storms shift in 2 days to screw us. 

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Well boys we got some tracking to do. The newest GFS shows a nice storm on the 8th for the usual suspects. Lucky for us this is a week away. We've seen historical storms shift in 2 days to screw us. 

And usually the ones that already screw us don't budge an inch. Lol

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Will be interesting to watch our first player. GFS has it much slower and therefore coming through with nighttime cold temps (0z puts a couple of in on us). Though, the 6z seems to move it much faster and keeps almost anyone outside the mountains snow free. 

The Euro is pretty quick with the front and has pretty much 0 snow for us because all the precip comes through during the day. 

 

Maybe we can get this thing to slow down and come through over night and we can get a few in on the ground.

Screen Shot 2017-12-01 at 5.13.25 AM.png

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I'm not worried about any of the specifics at this range, it won't be until after the front goes through and the pattern sets in that models will have a clue on storms let alone the track. 

Just seeing storms on the map at this point is a good thing. 

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14 hours ago, Mailman said:

GFS has a train of threats in fantasy range.   

GFS has been amazingly spot on with the timing of the cold front passage Tuesday night for quite a while....seems like well over a week ago...just sayin.   The week after the initial cold plunge has several clippers events coming down rounding the base of the trough with reinforcing cold air.

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