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Pittsburgh PA ❄️ Winter 2017-2018


north pgh

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1 hour ago, TeaysValleyWV said:

GFS has been amazingly spot on with the timing of the cold front passage Tuesday night for quite a while....seems like well over a week ago...just sayin.   The week after the initial cold plunge has several clippers events coming down rounding the base of the trough with reinforcing cold air.

These are the type of little events that I was talking about earlier that can end up surprising when you get a good fetch over Huron and Erie early in the season with anomalously cold 850s and a piece of energy to enhance it. Sure it won't be a widespread blockbuster but a forecast for 1-3 and you wake up to 5 in localized areas is certainly a possibility. That's just for those of us in the lowlands, upslope areas will really do well. 

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2 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Is it me or is this upcoming pattern looking weaker with each run. I'm seeing a lot of possible cutting storms just from my naked eye.

I do agree. Unfortunately, the trough,while there, just isn't as sharp as we need it to be for a good run for us. 

The positive is that the trough is still looking like it is going to be around for a while. The GFS lost sight of this at the end of the 18z but the GEFS still says trough. Hard to tell right now what any of the pieces of energy coming out of Canada will do, but anything is possible as long as they keep coming and this cold has the staying power that it appears to have.

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51 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

GFS has a few systems roll through which will atleast give us a layer of snow to start from. No snow in November and December started off slow so we need some systems to start to nickel and dime us. 

I would take this. Its going to be so cold that it isn't going anywhere. A few 1-2 in clippers in a row might be enough to keep the snow for a white christmas.

Screen Shot 2017-12-04 at 12.51.07 PM.png

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Completely ridiculous to post, but I had to. This makes me feel so good about the pattern. Wave after wave. Energy just keeps pouring out of Canada. We just need some phasing to happen with some southern energy as well. 

Even if we don't get it, 2+ weeks that result in almost 20 in. Even if its 1/2 of that, Im happy 

Screen Shot 2017-12-04 at 6.37.23 PM.png

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12 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

Completely ridiculous to post, but I had to. This makes me feel so good about the pattern. Wave after wave. Energy just keeps pouring out of Canada. We just need some phasing to happen with some southern energy as well. 

Even if we don't get it, 2+ weeks that result in almost 20 in. Even if its 1/2 of that, Im happy 

 

Definitely shaping up to be an active, albeit NS driven pattern. Great for tracking if you don't mind little 1-2 inch events, which at this time of year is fine by me. Model skill won't be great as they will struggle with various pieces of energy diving down the trough, but also has the look of something more moderate popping up pretty short notice.

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After a clipper rolls through this weekend with some snow saturday night into sunday morning, I am starting to focus on a system that the Euro started to pick up on sunday. It is still there and now the GFS is picking up on the same system. It would be a tuesday/wednesday event.

The vorticity on the GFS is pretty close to being a nice set up for us. Long way away, but i think its our next chance to watch for something to develop.

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Screen Shot 2017-12-05 at 12.38.15 PM.png

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Now that the front has passed and the pattern change is taking hold hopefully some windows for snow will start to come into focus. Looks like our first shot is Saturday into Sunday as a clipper drops through. Looks like we have snow chances on and off just about every 2-3 days next week, hopefully we can get one of these to over perform a bit.

After that we really get out into fantasy land, but 6z GFS for example shows a more potent wave passing underneath us around 300 hrs, then something else brewing from the gulf at 384. To avoid heartbreak though watch the ensembles for anything really past day 5 and start to focus on specifics of OP runs as we close in.

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7 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

This is kind of insane when you think about it. New Orleans with a few inches of snow, central alabama with over half a foot, all the way to the jersery shore getting a foot. Now I don't think this will even come close to verifying, but still.... impressive map

Screen Shot 2017-12-05 at 11.06.32 PM.png

Heh yeah, likely the GEM being the GEM... If we got half the snow it predicted for us in a winter we would average 80 inches a year. lol

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1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Heh yeah, likely the GEM being the GEM... If we got half the snow it predicted for us in a winter we would average 80 inches a year. lol

Oh no, it will happen. Birmingham Alabama will see 6 inches of snow while a week later we get an inch that turns to slop.

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1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

After that we really get out into fantasy land, but 6z GFS for example shows a more potent wave passing underneath us around 300 hrs, then something else brewing from the gulf at 384. To avoid heartbreak though watch the ensembles for anything really past day 5 and start to focus on specifics of OP runs as we close in.

Christmas is almost in model range.  Yeah, I took notice of the GFS showing a stormy look the week before Christmas with the cold air still in place.  it's still out there in range, but I like the trend.   We will get lucky with one of these.  Here's to hoping for a White Christmas.

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4 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

Saw this this morning. The Euro op is showing a little warm up in the 10 day. EPS not even close to buying in. Interesting how they can be so different

Screen Shot 2017-12-06 at 11.41.57 AM.png

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It seems like over the last few years the models have done better at 5 days or less out and worse at the longer ranges. With all the flip flopping long range I think we have all been trained to ignore these models more and zone in on the more current ones. I for one am just looking forward to getting the cold air here and and seeing some snowfall even if it is nickel and dime events. I am still confident it will be cold with some snow on the ground for Christmas. We are long overdue.

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23 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

So I was trying to use the PSU EWall today to look at the SREFs and found something called PCN. If anyone know what that means, i would appreciate the response. 

 

Screen Shot 2017-12-06 at 4.38.11 PM.png

I would guess total precip looking at the map.

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3 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:


That was my initial thought too. But then I looked at the key which stretches from 1-800. Those values over the Atlantic are over 200


 

I think the scale starts at .01 in liquid and ends at 8.00 in. So the 200 over the Atlantic would be 2.00 inches liquid.

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21 hours ago, TeaysValleyWV said:

Christmas is almost in model range.  Yeah, I took notice of the GFS showing a stormy look the week before Christmas with the cold air still in place.  it's still out there in range, but I like the trend.   We will get lucky with one of these.  Here's to hoping for a White Christmas.

 

13 hours ago, north pgh said:

It seems like over the last few years the models have done better at 5 days or less out and worse at the longer ranges. With all the flip flopping long range I think we have all been trained to ignore these models more and zone in on the more current ones. I for one am just looking forward to getting the cold air here and and seeing some snowfall even if it is nickel and dime events. I am still confident it will be cold with some snow on the ground for Christmas. We are long overdue.

Current pattern definitely increases our odds at seeing a white Christmas. I think the official definition is one inch or more of snow on the ground on Christmas day. Looks like the pattern we are entering into is heading into a relaxation period towards day 10ish with much less pumped up PNA.  This could throw a wrench in our white Christmas dreams, but could also make it more conducive for one of these pieces of NS energy to amplify. Will also be interesting to see if we get a reload as we head into January but by then we don't need big negative departures temp wise.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

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Nice surprise right now with some flakes flying. The clipper for Saturday night has really trended into almost nothing which is disappointing. Hard to believe with the cold progged over the next 10 days we won’t see much in the way of precip. Hopefully something can trend better in the shorter term to get us tracking. 

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