MikeB_01 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Looking back on the clipper last night, the UKie had it pretty well pegged from 36 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Some flakes flying around tomorrow night... Maybe an inch at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 thru saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Another day and a new solution from the GFS regarding 23-25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 The Euro has a nice overrunning storm Christmas Eve night, quite cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 19 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The Euro has a nice overrunning storm Christmas Eve night, quite cold too. Seriously, if I could lock this in I’d take it. Don’t care if south gets jackpot...it has been so long for a white Christmas if I could lock in two inches I would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Only less than 20 more Euro runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Just now, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Interesting battle coming up for the week of christmas. NAO vs EPO. Whichever one proves to show its dominance will have a profound impact on our weather that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 +NAO vs -EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 +NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 -EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Another component going in our favor. The MJO is entering stages 7 and potentially 8. Both are good for cold for us. Possibly an indication of the -EPO winning out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 GFS now has us as a White Christmas. Nine days out... what could go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 The only thing I know for sure right now is to not lock into a solution 10 days out. Chances good this swings wildly north or south or disappears. One of the few near certainties I've learned in years of hobby weathering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 17 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: Interesting battle coming up for the week of christmas. NAO vs EPO. Whichever one proves to show its dominance will have a profound impact on our weather that week. Going to be an interesting week for tracking that's for sure. Right now the path to victory looks pretty narrow though, as in the area that gets big snows won't be as widespread. Of course that could change, especially if we see several waves riding up the boundary as it presses to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Pretty strong cold signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 3 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Pretty strong cold signal Return to cold looks pretty solid right now, hopefully it holds and sticks around for awhile so we get a few chances to roll the dice. Feeling 60/40 for the odds of the cold getting here to save Christmas from the Grinch, we do a lot of local traveling so wouldn't be devastated if a bigger storm is pushed back a day, but I was really thinking we had a solid chance for once at a white Christmas. I think that convection refining in phase 6 for the MJO (reason we see the loop de loop on the RMM plots) is probably delaying the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 17, 2017 Author Share Posted December 17, 2017 2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Return to cold looks pretty solid right now, hopefully it holds and sticks around for awhile so we get a few chances to roll the dice. Feeling 60/40 for the odds of the cold getting here to save Christmas from the Grinch, we do a lot of local traveling so wouldn't be devastated if a bigger storm is pushed back a day, but I was really thinking we had a solid chance for once at a white Christmas. I think that convection refining in phase 6 for the MJO (reason we see the loop de loop on the RMM plots) is probably delaying the cold. Right now the GFS brings the cold in earlier for what could be a white Christmas. The Canadian holds up and gives us a wet one. Let's lean on the GFS and get the cold here next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 GFS back at it again for us for the holiday. Big arctic blast coming in behind it, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 52 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Merry Christmas Heh... Can't say I'm surprised. Models are starting to lean more towards the warmer side and slowing down the arrival of the cold. Other thing to keep in mind is that the drivers of this setup are starting to get into the medium range were model skill starts increasing significantly. Still time though, 65 in Pittsburgh and 35 in Columbus, wouldn't take much change for a much different outcome. Until then Christmas is turning into labor day with picnics, burgers and dogs on the grill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 25 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Heh... Can't say I'm surprised. Models are starting to lean more towards the warmer side and slowing down the arrival of the cold. Other thing to keep in mind is that the drivers of this setup are starting to get into the medium range were model skill starts increasing significantly. Still time though, 65 in Pittsburgh and 35 in Columbus, wouldn't take much change for a much different outcome. Until then Christmas is turning into labor day with picnics, burgers and dogs on the grill. A week plus is about the same accuracy as using climo, particularly as we should be near the boundary. I'm guessing 50-100 mile shifts in weather feature are average in that time frame. My guess is highs in the mid 40s with cold air not far behind. As long as I can get a 3"+ event before I go back too school in the second week in January, I will be content (I got back yesterday, rather unfortunate timing I suppose) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Wow, much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Before I draw nearer to that model output to which you point, answer me one question. Are these the shadows of the things that Will be, or are they shadows of things that May be, only? A weather patterns courses will foreshadow certain ends, to which, if persevered in, they must lead, but if the courses be departed from, the ends will change. Say it is thus with what you show me! Think the SE Ridge needs a visit from the 3 spirits lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 11 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Wow, much better Indeed, there is still hope for a seasonal day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 18 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Before I draw nearer to that model output to which you point, answer me one question. Are these the shadows of the things that Will be, or are they shadows of things that May be, only? A weather patterns courses will foreshadow certain ends, to which, if persevered in, they must lead, but if the courses be departed from, the ends will change. Say it is thus with what you show me! Think the SE Ridge needs a visit from the 3 spirits lol lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 I like whatever the GFS is smoking. Cold air bleeding in by Christmas eve, stalling out by Christmas with a plume of gulf moisture riding up it. Moderate snow, without being a concern for those traveling in the immediate area, but right on the gradient, so could go either way. I haven't seen that set up enough times to know if it plausible (usually the cold was too slow too arrive back when I lived in the DC area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 That trough dropping into the upper Midwest seems to be the main driver on that latest Gfs run. Probably Saturday we’ll have a good idea on said trough/vort position and strength. If it’s still even there. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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