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Pittsburgh PA ❄️ Winter 2017-2018


north pgh

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Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
635 PM EST THU MAR 8 2018

PAZ014-020>022-029-075-WVZ001-002-090030-
Armstrong-Butler-Beaver-Washington-Allegheny-Fayette-Brooke-Hancock-
635 PM EST THU MAR 8 2018

...SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WASHINGTON...EASTERN BEAVER...
SOUTHERN BUTLER...ALLEGHENY...SOUTHWESTERN ARMSTRONG...NORTHWESTERN
FAYETTE...NORTHEASTERN BROOKE AND SOUTHEASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES...

At 633 PM EST, snow showers along a line extending from near
Zelienople to near Follansbee will move east at 35 mph.  Expect
brief visibility near zero and a rapid half, to one inch snowfall.


Locations impacted include...
Pittsburgh...                     Penn Hills...
Mount Lebanon...                  Bethel Park...
Ross Township...                  McCandless Township...
Monroeville...                    Cranberry...
Moon Township...                  McMurray...
Weirton...                        McKeesport...

This includes the following highways...
  Interstate 70 in Pennsylvania near mile marker 42.
  Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 19 and 58.
  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 22 and 61.
  Parkway North between mile markers 1 and 13.


LAT...LON 4075 7933 4052 7949 4056 7956 4063 7958
      4062 7961 4068 7966 4059 7977 4055 7977
      4053 7970 4043 7970 4039 7977 4024 7981
      4023 7979 4020 7987 4014 7985 4013 7978
      4011 7979 4034 8060 4084 8019
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 284DEG 29KT 4078 8020 4037 8055

$$


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3 minutes ago, north pgh said:

GFS has a mind of it's own. Now it teases us and brings snow into southern pa. Ha ha

Yeah it's trending in the right direction. I want to see other guidance jump on though. The NAM was pretty bad looking. 

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Have had a steady light to occasional moderate snow falling for the past couple of hours. No issues accumulating on all surfaces. Leaning towards looking forward to Spring, but I just love watching snow fall in the street lights, it never gets old. Looks really calm and peaceful out there with everything getting covered up with close to a half inch so far.

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40 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Yeah it's trending in the right direction. I want to see other guidance jump on though. The NAM was pretty bad looking. 

Interesting developments for sure, I was just about to put this threat to bed if 00z stayed far to the South. Another 100 mile jump and we could see some impact, I'd already be interested if I lived near the PA border.

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The 32k NAM - and even the GFS - are really close.  There's a shortwave up in Northern Canada, west of the 50/50 low feature, that seems to get in the way.  The precip hits the Mason-Dixon as if it were an actual wall.  The 3k NAM still isn't in range, but based on the current 12Z run, it actually looks really good.  Of course I won't attempt to extrapolate it out beyond the 60 hour frame; it definitely has that distinct signature of the big storms, though.

Of course the long-range NAM isn't hugely reliable, so we're not quite in the sweet spot yet.  Plus with all the other models jumping all over, this will almost certainly come down to the wire.

I should add: there are quite a few GFS ensemble members that get snow well into PA.  12 or 13 out of 20.  Those aren't terrible odds.

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This has been one of the weirdest storms to track that I can remember.  Zero model consistency or consensus (though it's getting close) with about 60 hours left.

I've certainly seen things change drastically even inside 36 hours.  I'm going to hang on until the bitter end.  This is basically winter's last gasp, though it has been choking for quite a while.

 

ABC folks - Always Be Chasing.

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34 minutes ago, jwilson said:

This has been one of the weirdest storms to track that I can remember.  Zero model consistency or consensus (though it's getting close) with about 60 hours left.

I've certainly seen things change drastically even inside 36 hours.  I'm going to hang on until the bitter end.  This is basically winter's last gasp, though it has been choking for quite a while.

 

ABC folks - Always Be Chasing.

Unfortunately we may not have a choice, as the long range looks colder than normal. 

I think our best chance this weekend is to go all in on the northern vort, and hope to cash in with dynamics. 

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17 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Gfs looks better to screw us. Major changes. I just don't think heights raise enough to impact us. Now our friends down south look to be in a decent spot. 

That second piece of energy needs to drop down through MN instead of MI.

Hey, at least we'll have an extra hour of daylight in the evening to watch our token snow showers and flurries. 

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2 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said:

That second piece of energy needs to drop down through MN instead of MI.

Hey, at least we'll have an extra hour of daylight in the evening to watch our token snow showers and flurries. 

Just our luck this evolves into a decent event but manages to miss here... More NW flow snow showers for the win... :wacko: I'll take those all day long in Dec and Jan but closing in on mid March it gets old. Since the whole thing might be 24hrs later maybe still time for a miracle. 

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42 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Just our luck this evolves into a decent event but manages to miss here... More NW flow snow showers for the win... :wacko: I'll take those all day long in Dec and Jan but closing in on mid March it gets old. Since the whole thing might be 24hrs later maybe still time for a miracle. 

If you look back at our lack of storms, besides being flooded with warm air easily, we tend to be at the base of these steering troughs. 

Not sure why that is, possibly our location in relation to the Hudson Bay lows in the winter. 

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Well at least we got that one six inch storm in January with inch per hour rates....unfortunately, once again we have to sort and watch areas 100-150 miles from us get crushed as we miss the jackpot. This next one looks to be another.

 

The only solace I take is that the MA has been screwed all winter, but of course that will likely change. 

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3 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

If you look back at our lack of storms, besides being flooded with warm air easily, we tend to be at the base of these steering troughs. 

Not sure why that is, possibly our location in relation to the Hudson Bay lows in the winter. 

I swear, we have to

ve in the worst spot east of the Mississippi, and north of the VA/NC line for big storms. The number of 8+ storms that we miss by 50-200 miles is amazing.

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9 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

If you look back at our lack of storms, besides being flooded with warm air easily, we tend to be at the base of these steering troughs. 

Not sure why that is, possibly our location in relation to the Hudson Bay lows in the winter. 

I've often wondered the same. Always figured the Aps had something to do with it but never considered Hudson Bay. 

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10 hours ago, blackngoldrules said:

At least it looks like we have a warm up late week. I just want to put another winter of mostly nickel and dimer snows behind me now. Get this snowless chilly air out of here and get some spring air in here.

Yeah, the GFS has been trending warmer for next weekend, so that’s a positive. 

 

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