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Pittsburgh PA ❄️ Winter 2017-2018


north pgh

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Based on seasonal trends, the Euro should drop that look by 96 hours, if not sooner.  Too early to buy in, especially with the warm air flux we're getting early next week.

That said, the stalled system look reloading with dropping shortwaves is something I'm not sure I've ever seen before.

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6 minutes ago, JPOracle said:

The storm system next week looks interesting but we won't have a clue what we could get or not get by the night before the event.  These March systems are hard to predict well

I agree. I am curious and watching but we all know how these things usually end up for our area. I am anxious for spring but I would take a storm of any kind to add to the history books. 

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GFS seems to be showing some interesting and strange things - could you all with more expertise weigh in?

Looks like a Miller B, right?  First image is at 102, and GFS looks to be all rain for us.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

12 hours later, and the low has transferred off to the coast, and we're right on the fringe of that snow -- seems like a positive development for the GFS given the significant warm trend of earlier runs.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.thumb.png.bd3c1e666877bf4927b1ef4d4f14f26c.png

And then hour 132 shows something I've never seen before -- why did the low go from off of the coast of New England back south off of the coast of Delaware??gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

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6 minutes ago, IrishWxBurgher said:

GFS seems to be showing some interesting and strange things - could you all with more expertise weigh in?

Looks like a Miller B, right?  First image is at 102, and GFS looks to be all rain for us.
 

12 hours later, and the low has transferred off to the coast, and we're right on the fringe of that snow -- seems like a positive development for the GFS given the significant warm trend of earlier runs.

 

 

And then hour 132 shows something I've never seen before -- why did the low go from off of the coast of New England back south off of the coast of Delaware??

Yeah it's a miller Bish, it gets to far NW with the Primary though we get inundated with warmth and rain, after it transfers cold air wraps around and we turn back to snow. Not sure why the low is bouncing around up and down the coast, my guess is that won't happen and it's just the GFS struggling with the stalled out storm, or it's picking up on another piece of energy that dives down the trough and develops off the coat again. It does look a little better than 00z though.

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All the significant systems this year have been Miller Bs.  Even the last storm that looked sort of like a Miller A initially, or some kind of hybrid, was really a true Miller B.  Don't see many Miller A systems when the northern stream is dominant.  We don't have that STJ conveyor belt of moisture at our disposal.  Mostly a Nino effect.  1996 was the odd exception.

That's mostly what I'm worried about with this next one; we could very well be out of it too far in one direction (too south, north, or, more likely, too west).

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7 hours ago, jwilson said:

All the significant systems this year have been Miller Bs.  Even the last storm that looked sort of like a Miller A initially, or some kind of hybrid, was really a true Miller B.  Don't see many Miller A systems when the northern stream is dominant.  We don't have that STJ conveyor belt of moisture at our disposal.  Mostly a Nino effect.  1996 was the odd exception.

That's mostly what I'm worried about with this next one; we could very well be out of it too far in one direction (too south, north, or, more likely, too west).

Latest runs appear to be too West :weep:

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33 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

Latest runs appear to be too West :weep:

Yep.  The Euro went south, not insignificantly so (to the point where even D.C. was fringed), and the GFS came south, as well, from previous runs.

The precip at onset (wave 1) is almost entirely rain.  Maybe some minimal snows on the backend as the second wave pulls it back, then jumps off the coast for redevelopment.  We have a high in a nice place, but the upper atmospheric lows seem to advance too far north, which brings WAA into our region.  We'd need those lows to stay further suppressed to the south.  The surface low actually looks to be a in decent spot at the Kentucky / Virginia border.

As the transfer happens, we dry out (literally a snow hole, which may be some sort of convective feedback error, I'm not sure) and then precip reforms to our East, as per normal.  Unfortunately, it seems we get marginal temps at the precisely wrong time.  Of course changes remain likely; I'm very much not optimistic, however.  We need a serious phasing and deepening system (meaning it gets captured and pulled inland from off the coast), or a Miller A, which we're definitely not going to get this winter.

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10 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Dont look at the 18z gefs if you want a big storm. Almost every solution is a fringe job. 

Really don't look at 6z, or any 00z for that matter lol. To many vorts playing deconstruction interference with each other so no look of a phasing 500mb closed off stalled low, just progressive junk sliding by to our south. If that's how it plays out I'm more than happy for it to miss us, I'll pass on cool and damp white rain that barely coats the grass. Still a few days out though so can't rule out a better look as we get closer. 

I'm not really invested in this either way, it's like watching your team in the last game of the season but the outcome doesn't affect playoff positioning and its all 2nd and 3rd string players in the lineup. 

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I'm ditching this storm now.  Sort of a "fool me once" measure.

We're too warm for the first round of moisture.  Lose what could possibly be a good batch of snow to rain.  By the time the coastal gets going, the precip shield is east of us.  I realize there's still time for the setup to change, I'm not convinced it does in this winter.

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51 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I don't want to be negative but I actually could see us missing it that way. 

Yeah, I could see it working out that way too. First we get warm tongue with one wave then on the second with energy transferring to the coastal low and you get a hole right over SW PA. Not saying it will work out that way but that's how it could happen. 

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6 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

:thumbsup::snowing::snowwindow:

 

Euro seems to agree with that. I know it's wrong though because it shows a bulls-eye strip along Northern Allegheny and Westmoreland Counties lol These snow maps are probably considerably less accurate than normal though given the time of year. NWS discussion is not to bullish on any impacts outside of the ridges either so at this point not getting overly attached to this one, but hoping to be pleasantly surprised.

B69245CE-12FD-40B4-8BBB-8CC2129D4F48.png

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Seems all the mesoscale models look pretty good for this entire region (unless you're north of Allegheny county, I suppose).  The globals are a bit less certain, mostly okay for PIT, though at this range I'd be more inclined to go with the mesoscales.  You Pittsburgh folks also have the Canadian on your side, but that leaves the southern counties out of the juice.

So the battle is NAM vs. globals.  Of course we've had almost zero run-to-run consistency so this could all change by 12Z and/or 00Z tonight.

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