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2017-18 LES Season


josh_4184
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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm worried about dry air and shear more than the cold, that is a given.

Yes dry air can be an issue especially when pieces of the PV break off and come down and we are left with moisture laden clippers, but even those do pretty well for certain belts. But in the past couple winters we haven't had a sustainable cold pattern for more then a couple weeks without major torches in between. 

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Easily. I would say with that constant cold, and series of clippers riding along that trough, easy 100" in highest spots off all 4 lakes.

Agree... just a starting point total until we see how things come together over the next few days.  I think normal for my area in December is just north of 50" anyway.

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On 11/11/2017 at 11:07 PM, Aleksey said:

SE and Mi Winter Wx. I just moved up here about 2 months ago, from Georgia, so all my followers and group chat are from down there.

Hi Aleksey, sorry to bother you.  I attempted a Twitter search, but came up empty.

Can you link me to the page? 

For example mine is https://twitter.com/BeauDodson

Assuming there is an account page.  

Thanks for your time.

Beau

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2 hours ago, tuanis said:

Yeah, what's up with the oaks this year? We had an incredibly bumper acorn season (a 'mast' year) over here - I was shoveling them out of my beds and it sounded like hailstones hitting the roof for weeks on end. Could that have something to do with the oaks holding their leaves so late? Normally everything is down prior to turkey day. I can't imagine it's weather related - we've had plenty windstorms and some cold weather in late October/early November.

The oaks are a couple weeks late dropping leaves here, as well.  Just in the last week they've begun to unload, so I'm trying to get all my bags filled(to cover non-hardy plants) before winter hits next week.

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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The oaks are a couple weeks late dropping leaves here, as well.  Just in the last week they've begun to unload, so I'm trying to get all my bags filled(to cover non-hardy plants) before winter hits next week.

I noticed this over Thanksgiving. Driving south of the Mackinac Bridge...suddenly there were many hardwoods still clinging to dead leaves. It was odd.

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2 hours ago, BeauDodson said:

Hi Aleksey, sorry to bother you.  I attempted a Twitter search, but came up empty.

Can you link me to the page? 

For example mine is https://twitter.com/BeauDodson

Assuming there is an account page.  

Thanks for your time.

Beau

I don’t have an account page, it’s just a group chat I’m in. My twitter page is Aleksey Sceviour thought 

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4 hours ago, tuanis said:

Yeah, what's up with the oaks this year? We had an incredibly bumper acorn season (a 'mast' year) over here - I was shoveling them out of my beds and it sounded like hailstones hitting the roof for weeks on end. Could that have something to do with the oaks holding their leaves so late? Normally everything is down prior to turkey day. I can't imagine it's weather related - we've had plenty windstorms and some cold weather in late October/early November.

Yeah, I am amazed with how windy this month has been, that the oaks are stilling holding on to those leaves.

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4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

From Buffalo NWS, “Large scale pattern suggests the possibility of numerous high impact lake effect snow events starting late next week or next weekend, and continuing through the middle of December” ❄️❄️❄️

What I am really liking is that it looks like the winds will be shifting back and forth some from NW to W to SW (with clippers), back and forth, which means many of us in the lake belts could really cash in.

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1 hour ago, josh_4184 said:

384hr GFS snow totals starting to ramp up, yea its way out there but think multiple locals will be in multiple feet the next two weeks.

 

USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_384.gif

Wow. Michigan and its snow belts REALLY looking good on that run. Looks like the Western and Northern Great Lakes are the winners..at least for now. Clipper train and that nice Low sitting up to our North. My area is almost to 2 feet on that map.

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15 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

384hr GFS snow totals starting to ramp up, yea its way out there but think multiple locals will be in multiple feet the next two weeks.

 

USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_384.gif

Deja-Vu, as last year we were also (finally) looking at a flip around this same time. Sitting here across the street from Lk Michigan it's good to know the big pond's not scorching hot like it was after record torch last November. Should allow for more LES along the shoreline, which got skipped over with all the heat a year ago. It all went inland the first week or so of that cold spell. Should do better with this past month running below temps-wise. Without any elevation or convergence to work with, lake temp's kinda critical here. 

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53 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Deja-Vu, as last year we were also (finally) looking at a flip around this same time. Sitting here across the street from Lk Michigan it's good to know the big pond's not scorching hot like it was after record torch last November. Should allow for more LES along the shoreline, which got skipped over with all the heat a year ago. It all went inland the first week or so of that cold spell. Should do better with this past month running below temps-wise. Without any elevation or convergence to work with, lake temp's kinda critical here. 

I was just thinking the same thing, looked back at some Facebook posts and yes we got hit with our first big outbreak of the season last year around this date time frame, actually it was the most snow I had on the ground all year over 30"+. Made for some awesome snowmobile riding.  Hopefully this year it doesn't peak like last year and have a pretty lame last half of winter like last year.  Although I was on baby watch so couldn't do anything anyway.  This year I am ready for some white and lots of riding. 

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From APX, hopefully latter this weekend and into early next week  we can start to nail down some better specifics for the LES when High Res short term models are in range

 

Quote
LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 151 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2017

...Rainy start into a snowy finish...

A shortwave moving inland from the Pacific will help drive deep low
pressure out of the Plains early next week. Continues to be pretty
good agreement amongst guidance that this low will pass to our west,
bringing a period of rain Tuesday before an arctic airmass makes a
push into the region, cranking up lake effect snow. Signals
certainly exist for considerable accumulations spanning from mid-
week into early next week. Long range model soundings have
impressive lake induced CAPE values and inversion heights well over
10kft for mid-week. Winds look to be generally W-NW, with american
guidance wanting to bring a late week shortwave through that could
disrupt flow a bit. European guidance isn`t picking up on this.
Exact amounts and intensities are still a bit muddled, but expect
the lake effect to be around for most of the extended, starting
Tuesday night and lasting into the weekend.

Also of note is that there is some divergence in the strength and
duration of high pressure over Greenland setting up a downstream
block, and draining the cold air into the region. European guidance
is a bit weaker with this high, and quicker to move it out. This is
manifesting in a more progressive solution, with the coldest air a
bit warmer than american guidance and also quicker to move out.
American guidance is a bit colder as we get to Saturday, but just
beyond the extended it has a much colder, and thus snowier,
solution. Will see how this develops in the coming days.

 

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22 minutes ago, BeauDodson said:

Does anyone know who the best meteorologists are in the western New York area (Buffalo perhaps)?  Looking to follow them on Twitter/other.  TV meteorologists or other.

I don't personally use twitter so not really sure. Tom Niziol is pretty good, I follow him on Facebook. Don Paul from Channel 7 would also be someone i'd recommend. Andy Parker is decent. Other than the the news casters on channel 2, 4, and 7 are not the greatest. 

https://www.facebook.com/TWCTomNiziol/

https://www.facebook.com/donpaulwkbw/

https://www.facebook.com/andyparkerwkbw/

 

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4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I don't personally use twitter so not really sure. Tom Niziol is pretty good, I follow him on Facebook. Don Paul from Channel 7 would also be someone i'd recommend. Andy Parker is decent. Other than the the news casters on channel 2, 4, and 7 are not the greatest. 

https://www.facebook.com/TWCTomNiziol/

https://www.facebook.com/donpaulwkbw/

https://www.facebook.com/andyparkerwkbw/

 

Todd Santos who used to be on TWC is also very good on channel 4 . Aaron Mentkowski from channel 7 is pretty solid as well. Cant believe all the good people channel 7 has now with Paul,Parker, Mentkowski and Randall, by far the best in WNY lol. 

https://www.facebook.com/aaronmentkowskiwkbw/

https://www.facebook.com/ToddSantosWIVB/

 

 

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7 hours ago, BeauDodson said:

Does anyone know who the best meteorologists are in the western New York area (Buffalo perhaps)?  Looking to follow them on Twitter/other.  TV meteorologists or other.

Beau, I don't do Twitter, but Jon Hitchcock is a met at BUF NWS and is excellent at LES forecasting. You might try searching for him on social media or even hitting him up and maybe he can give you some suggestions.

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Exciting times coming for LES belts. 2 separate potentially significant events in the next 10 days. 

A significant lake effect event will likely develop Wednesday and
persist through Thursday night or Friday morning for locations east
and northeast of Lake Erie. There remains some uncertainty at this
time range with the details of band placement and intensity.

After the first lake effect event is disrupted Friday by a wave of
low pressure moving through the area, a second significant lake
effect may develop for the weekend into the beginning of next week.
There remains plenty of uncertainty at this time range with the
details of band placement and intensity.

 

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Ready for the snow this week! The models don't seem too enthusiastic for lake effect snow, but GRR NWS isn't buying the lack of moisture they are showing...

 

The cold air at 850mb`s will result in delta t`s over the lake in
the upper teens to lower 20C. So, plenty of instability will be in
place for lake effect snow. Expecting almost steady state lake
effect to occur from Wednesday through Sunday. There will likely be
several boosts to the lake effect snow provided by the upper
shortwaves. So, expecting persistent light lake effect snow which
will become moderate to heavy at the times the shortwaves move
through.
Moisture looks decent at this point which the longer range
models always seem to struggle with. Given the deep cyclonic flow
and the waves aloft, thinking moisture will not be too big of an
issue.

Thinking accumulations will be on the light side inland, east of
highway 131. The heaviest accumulations will be in the lakeshore
counties with a tapering into the second tier along highway 131.


By this time next weekend, there should be some decent accumulations
in the lakeshore counties tapering as you go inland. Would not rule
out double digit accumulations towards the lake by next Sunday,

although that will come over the course of 5 days or so.

 

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28 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Ready for the snow this week! The models don't seem too enthusiastic for lake effect snow, but GRR NWS isn't buying the lack of moisture they are showing...

 

The cold air at 850mb`s will result in delta t`s over the lake in
the upper teens to lower 20C. So, plenty of instability will be in
place for lake effect snow. Expecting almost steady state lake
effect to occur from Wednesday through Sunday. There will likely be
several boosts to the lake effect snow provided by the upper
shortwaves. So, expecting persistent light lake effect snow which
will become moderate to heavy at the times the shortwaves move
through.
Moisture looks decent at this point which the longer range
models always seem to struggle with. Given the deep cyclonic flow
and the waves aloft, thinking moisture will not be too big of an
issue.

Thinking accumulations will be on the light side inland, east of
highway 131. The heaviest accumulations will be in the lakeshore
counties with a tapering into the second tier along highway 131.


By this time next weekend, there should be some decent accumulations
in the lakeshore counties tapering as you go inland. Would not rule
out double digit accumulations towards the lake by next Sunday,

although that will come over the course of 5 days or so.

 

Never use globals for LES, moisture looks good. Buf NWS talking big impact LES. BUFKIT is probably the best tool for LES. It takes awhile to learn, I'm a novice at it, but you can get moisture, temp profiles, winds aloft, etc... 

http://training.weather.gov/wdtd/tools/BUFKIT/

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18 hours ago, blackrock said:

Ready for the snow this week! The models don't seem too enthusiastic for lake effect snow, but GRR NWS isn't buying the lack of moisture they are showing...

 

The cold air at 850mb`s will result in delta t`s over the lake in
the upper teens to lower 20C. So, plenty of instability will be in
place for lake effect snow. Expecting almost steady state lake
effect to occur from Wednesday through Sunday. There will likely be
several boosts to the lake effect snow provided by the upper
shortwaves. So, expecting persistent light lake effect snow which
will become moderate to heavy at the times the shortwaves move
through.
Moisture looks decent at this point which the longer range
models always seem to struggle with. Given the deep cyclonic flow
and the waves aloft, thinking moisture will not be too big of an
issue.

Thinking accumulations will be on the light side inland, east of
highway 131. The heaviest accumulations will be in the lakeshore
counties with a tapering into the second tier along highway 131.


By this time next weekend, there should be some decent accumulations
in the lakeshore counties tapering as you go inland. Would not rule
out double digit accumulations towards the lake by next Sunday,

although that will come over the course of 5 days or so.

 

This morning's short ranger NAM3km teasing me with a nice 94 streamer Wed evening. We'll see if it's just being overly ambitious from this range

 

20171204 12z 60hr NAM 3km precip,MSLP for 12-6.png

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10 minutes ago, Jonger said:

I'm hoping to ride somewhere on Sunday.... Has to be in the lower Pen. I'd drive out Saturday evening.

I bet some areas will have over 12" on the ground in NW lower however being early conditions might want to temper your expectations as the trails are currently mud pits and not frozen yet. Also getting 1"+ rain on top before the freeze wont help much but I am sure you are used to that for early riding. 

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