October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[bluewave]

New October low pressure record set for Albany.

Current barometric pressure of 976mb at Albany Int'l Airport sets a new record low for the month of October.

10:25 PM - 29 Oct 2017

 

 

[dmillz25]

4.05" should add a bit more then thats it

[NJwx85]

Looks like a lot of areas experienced over 4" of rain and most that didn't had at least 3". It appears that the highest totals were over Northeastern NJ and portions of the lower Hudson valley.

[snywx]

Chilly out there with snow falling about 30 miles to my west.. 42° right now, 3.28" in the bucket

[qg_omega]

10 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

You claiming one of these is a bust and one we should have relied on is plain and simple complete bs. 

Thank you makes my point very well, Euro was too far SW, GFS was too far east, the middle worked.  Don't throw out the GFS and blindly follow the Euro.  If you adjust the Euro for it's bias and adjust the gfs for it's, boom great forecast.

[hooralph]

1 hour ago, hooralph said:

Did not expect to wake up and see a death band about to pivot through (should get here as I need to leave with my son for school).

Meh. Radar sensitivity must be up. Thankfully, nothing but some gusty sprinkles.

[BxEngine]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Thank you makes my point very well, Euro was too far SW, GFS was too far east, the middle worked.  Don't throw out the GFS and blindly follow the Euro.  If you adjust the Euro for it's bias and adjust the gfs for it's, boom great forecast.

You spent the last 2 days claiming this would be an epic Euro bust. So thank you for proving everyone's point that you are only here to troll. 

[ag3]

Just now, hooralph said:

Meh. Radar sensitivity must be up. Thankfully, nothing but some gusty sprinkles.

Moderate rain in NE Queens.

[ag3]

Just now, BxEngine said:

You spent the last 2 days claiming this would be an epic Euro bust. So thank you for proving everyone's point that you are only here to troll. 

And this was a very well modeled system. Far from a bust.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Thank you makes my point very well, Euro was too far SW, GFS was too far east, the middle worked.  Don't throw out the GFS and blindly follow the Euro.  If you adjust the Euro for it's bias and adjust the gfs for it's, boom great forecast.

The middle didn't work. The GFS was east of New England several days ago. Euro and UK verified best on track over the last week.

[NJwx85]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Thank you makes my point very well, Euro was too far SW, GFS was too far east, the middle worked.  Don't throw out the GFS and blindly follow the Euro.  If you adjust the Euro for it's bias and adjust the gfs for it's, boom great forecast.

If you look at the forecast from day 3 it wasn't even close. 

 

[BxEngine]

Just now, ag3 said:

And this was a very well modeled system. Far from a bust.

Yup. The euro was within a reasonable error spread from over 120 hours out. Because it was less than 50 miles too far west 24 hours out is nowhere near a bust.

[Morris]

3.28" in the park.

[qg_omega]

3 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

You spent the last 2 days claiming this would be an epic Euro bust. So thank you for proving everyone's point that you are only here to troll. 

Wrong, I spent the last two days hounding about the Euro west bias and it's mishandling Philippe trying to absorb it all.  I was 100 percent correct but will not receive any credit, this is expected.

[NJwx85]

At day 5, the Euro forecast was spot on, the GFS wasn't. 

 

[Rjay]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Wrong, I spent the last two days hounding about the Euro west bias and it's mishandling Philippe trying to absorb it all.  I was 100 percent correct but will not receive any credit, this is expected.

You were right abiut the Euro mishandling Phillippe but that's about it. 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Thank you makes my point very well, Euro was too far SW, GFS was too far east, the middle worked.  Don't throw out the GFS and blindly follow the Euro.  If you adjust the Euro for it's bias and adjust the gfs for it's, boom great forecast.

Gfs was terrible with the low placement

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Wrong, I spent the last two days hounding about the Euro west bias and it's mishandling Philippe trying to absorb it all.  I was 100 percent correct but will not receive any credit, this is expected.

Again..The Euro didn't  ever absorb Phillippe. 

[BxEngine]

On 10/29/2017 at 7:15 AM, qg_omega said:

I would bet another historic bust for the Euro, it's lost in this storm

 

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Wrong, I spent the last two days hounding about the Euro west bias and it's mishandling Philippe trying to absorb it all.  I was 100 percent correct but will not receive any credit, this is expected.

Lol

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, BxEngine said:

 

Lol

The proof is in the pudding. The Euro wasn't perfect, but to say it busted badly is terribly analysis. Like weenie tag worthy. 

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Again..The Euro didn't  ever absorb Phillippe. 

Agreed but the Euro weakened Phillippe too much up until 24 hours before the event (if i recall correctly).  With that said, Phillippe ended up having no bearing on the track of our system. 

 

The GFS was awful and the Euro saad stellar.

[BxEngine]

Just now, Rjay said:

Agreed but the Euro weakened Phillippe too much up until 24 hours before the event (if i recall correctly).  With that said, Phillippe ended up having no bearing on the track of our system. 

And because of the shape of the nj coast and the direction the storm was moving, any claim it was "way" too far west is utter nonsense. 

[BxEngine]

Anyway...lost some trees with that last line. Reports of trees on houses in northern part of rockland.

[bluewave]

 

 

9 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Agreed but the Euro weakened Phillippe too much up until 24 hours before the event (if i recall correctly).  With that said, Phillippe ended up having no bearing on the track of our system. 

The only product that the Op Euro puts out that I am not a big fan of is the wind gust product which is often overdone. I am wondering if that is an add on by vendors?  The EPS wind gust product was closer to reality. I know that the WXbell fronzen precip  algo is often incorrect. So maybe they are doing the same thing with the winds?

https://weather.us/forecast/5116931-farmingdale/ensemble/euro/wind-gusts

[Morris]

And it's finally over.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

Thanks Don, that's very low!  Offhand, any idea when our last  sub 29" pressure was? Is it a 1 in 10 year event?  I see the winds weren't as high as would be expected in our area with such low pressures, JFK and LGA didn't even hit 50 mph gusts even though sustained winds were near 40 mph?

What was the path of the low- right up the Hudson river?

 

Out to our east, looks like the winds were greater near where Philippe tracked, 82 mph near Cape Cod and an amazing 132 mph at Mt Washington!

 

 

The last time I had a reading at least as low as last night's was during Sandy. From what I saw, the storm tracked just to the west of the Hudson River. Had it been farther to the west, the NYC metro area would likely have seen stronger winds. All in all, it was still an impressive storm.

[Snowberd]

I’m not knowledgeable enough to know whether the Euro busted or not, can only speak for MBY, but having said that. I am located south nassau, in Oceanside. None of the models showed what I got. Which was 22 sustained winds at best, occasional gusts to 40 and rain totaled 1.6” as of 10:30pm. I was part of the dry slot that separated the west precip from east. Also of note was when the winds shifted around that time, the winds were calm! No model that I saw depicted that. When I saw TWC it showed my area was dead center of the surrounding isobars . Felt like we were in the eye. All models showed a variance of higher winds out east but none picked up the rain disparity between my area and everywhere else. I’m talking specifically about Oceanside, RVC, Lynbrook? I thought since I am practically on the water the wind would be higher. And was shocked at how little rain we got compared to everyone else.


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[gravitylover]

3.7" with light rain still falling, winds are no big deal at ~8-10 with gusts into the low 20's and the temp is 43* and still falling. Pretty fair bit of rain and a nice bump to reservoirs for you folks that depend on them but sadly the wind didn't strip the leaves so I can't do a final cut and put the mower to bed for the winter just yet. On the plus side the (forest) fire danger should be mitigated for the season now.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Snowberd said:

I’m not knowledgeable enough to know whether the Euro busted or not, can only speak for MBY, but having said that. I am located southwest nassau, in the water in Oceanside. None of the models showed what I got. Which was 22 sustained winds at best, occasional gusts to 40 and rain totaled 1.6” as of 10:30pm. I was part of the dry slot that separated the west precip from east. Also of note was when the winds shifted around that time, the winds were calm! No model that I saw depicted that. When I saw TWC it showed my area was dead center of the surrounding isobars . Felt like we were in the eye. All models showed a variance of higher winds out east but none picked up the rain disparity between my area and everywhere else. I’m talking specifically about Oceanside, RVC, Lynbrook? I thought since I am practically on the water the wind would be higher. And was shocked at how little rain we got compared to everyone else.


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Forecasting how much of the LLJ will mix down in a WAA area ahead of cold fronts is always an inexact science. While the storm was rapidly deepening last night, the LLJ was also moving very quickly to the east. So it was more of a glancing blow. The general signal that Long Island would see the best wind gusts worked out. You can also see how there was always uncertainty on how far west the strongest winds would get. The immediate South Shore saw gusts into the 60's and gusts near 75 mph out just east of MTP to SE CT.

[cut]

42 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Thank you makes my point very well, Euro was too far SW, GFS was too far east, the middle worked.  Don't throw out the GFS and blindly follow the Euro.  If you adjust the Euro for it's bias and adjust the gfs for it's, boom great forecast.

What is that like an 80 mile difference?!?!? That is basically consensus ... come one man, just stop.