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Fall 2017 Model Mehham

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 Right on cue, Kevin starts to panic about winter. 

Panic in Tolland is back!

 

 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not afraid of a GOA low either...we've done fine with them....the "Death vortex" I refer to is a strong vortex over W AK/Bering region/adjacent north into Arctic ocean...so many of warm/snowless winters have had them. 2011-2012, 2001-2002, 1999-2000, etc. That region definitely seems to be important for keeping some meridional flow into Canada...

Probably part and parcel to the same talking points re the west, north ...east or south EPO biases  ... 

I mean if we really wanna dig into the philosophy of the thing.  That you're describing sounds like a split EPO index, with the eastern sector negative and western sector positive.   Only, in your scenario there, the positive part is perhaps of greater SD in that mode. 

I would also advance that there may be some continental feed-back in that situation. If there is a strong broad brushed injection of a Pac latent heat pushing into western Canada, given to that region of the hemisphere being a veritable desert ... there's not much stopping a ridge wave length from getting really long. I bet if there was a pan-mass antecedent snow pack that might also make some horrortexes less scary - just a thought

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speaking of which ... I was interested (if not surprised) to see the cryosphere numbers almost dead-nuts on the 10 years averages the other day.   not sure if/what the greater significance of that should be... but, i think given the pretty overwhelming antecedent global climate cues going back 10 or 20 years, i'd take the average and run with it if i was you!   it shows at least a temporary abeyance of an established culture of overwhelming losses in that regard.

Which... yeeah, it's possible; if the background climate flux is still in play, doesn't average show a gross cooling?    seems it should in the arithmetic -

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Panic in Tolland is back!

 

 

I still laugh about his staunch protestation that the pattern in late Jan '15 was not amplified and that the storms showing up were just model hocus-pocus. I find the contrarian thing works well. Whenever he's at his most pessimistic, we can expect big things.

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15 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I still laugh about his staunch protestation that the pattern in late Jan '15 was not amplified and that the storms showing up were just model hocus-pocus. I find the contrarian thing works well. Whenever he's at his most pessimistic, we can expect big things.

I'm rather proud of my "not gonna happen James," line that started the greatest 6 weeks I may ever see. At least I had a viable reason in that the smaller snow event just before the blizzard, was in danger of kicking out what was soon to be, our blizzard.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I'm rather proud of my "not gonna happen James," line that started the greatest 6 weeks I may ever see. At least I had a viable reason in that the smaller snow event just before the blizzard, was in danger of kicking out what was soon to be, our blizzard.

Yeah there was definitely concern about spacing.

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm rather proud of my "not gonna happen James," line that started the greatest 6 weeks I may ever see. At least I had a viable reason in that the smaller snow event just before the blizzard, was in danger of kicking out what was soon to be, our blizzard.

Yeah but in fairness a lot of us thought the Friday/Saturday system was going to end up screwing the spacing...and at least you didn't proclaim the entire winter was going to be nickels and dimes. :lol:

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32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah but in fairness a lot of us thought the Friday/Saturday system was going to end up screwing the spacing...and at least you didn't proclaim the entire winter was going to be nickels and dimes. :lol:

And that one did better round here than I expected. Good start to the epicosity.

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1 hour ago, Hoth said:

I still laugh about his staunch protestation that the pattern in late Jan '15 was not amplified and that the storms showing up were just model hocus-pocus. I find the contrarian thing works well. Whenever he's at his most pessimistic, we can expect big things.

Nickles and dimes 

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And that one did better round here than I expected. Good start to the epicosity.

I am the proud owner of that term, made famous in Jan 11, used extensively in Feb 13 and made as a permanent adjective in 2015. Still can't believe how cold it was with all that snow. When you have -13 in the coldest climo period of the year the last thing you expect to go with that is 100 inches of snow. 

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31 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

There might be brief BD relief for some but it looks warm and muggy for most later next week.  I'm not going to worry about it as long as we are done with 88/72 type stuff. 

Next week and weekend looks like a lot of 80's, but lower dews. It'll be hot but not humid 

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35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Next week and weekend looks like a lot of 80's, but lower dews. It'll be hot but not humid 

Man this is awesome, reminds me of  07......

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Call me a weenie, but a warm September/October couplet, aside from retarding the festive progression, does not engender a great deal of pessmissm from me RE the ensuing winter. Anecdotally, how many times have we seen -4SD AOs in October preceede the stratosphere going ice cold?

Top of my grape, 2006 and 2016 (or last year) in recent memory..

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55 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Man this is awesome, reminds me of  07......

Funny how 2007 showed up a bunch in the recent high temperature records up here (that were crushed) for this time of year.  Even 2010 also showed up on one of these dates.  

Both were epic snow years and La Ninas with torch late-Septembers.  

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Call me a weenie, but a warm September/October couplet, aside from retarding the festive progression, does not engender a great deal of pessmissm from me RE the ensuing winter. Anecdotally, how many times have we seen -4SD AOs in October preceede the stratosphere going ice cold?

Top of my grape, 2006 and 2016 (or last year) in recent memory..

Agreed completely.  We can have warm falls that lead to warm winters, but also cold falls that lead to warm winters.  And the opposite is true as well.  

Just like when some like to pin a warm fall on a below normal summer because you already "used up" your negative departures.  How many times have we seen a torch summer lead to a torch fall?  Plenty.  

The whole idea that the previous season's temperature departures give a good indication of the next season's departures, seems more like a defense mechanism than anything.  

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The maritimes cool and chilly and the Midwest heat pumps into the northeast. Ridge is far to N

https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/913052702950793216

Well neither of those tweets says anything about backdoor potential. But the fact that the Maritimes are cool and chilly and the Midwest is hot is why there is backdoor potential.

But if you drop a surface high into the position that the Euro is showing it's not really favorable for pumping the heat into New England.

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Yeah...next week doesn't look like a major torch to me either...yet. Glad we don't live at H5. Those warmer 850s kinda hit a brick wall as they get near our longitude and you can see the sfc high anchor itself in. Even with full sun maybe some weaker mixing than usual? Even the GFS doesn't get 850s above 10C so even if you want to lump a generous 15C onto that you're talking mid 70s and lower humidity. I'd probably lean on the cooler side of that at this point too...u60s/l70s?

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The timeframe is Wed - Columbus Day weekend. Those are the days of 80's they are talking about 

Definite BD potential, but I'm not sure I'd jump on either bandwagon at this point. It's definitely a strong ridge aloft being modeled to work in, but the taint potential is there.

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