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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

Euro anyone? Is it out yet? 

No or we'd be talking about it. Starts in a few minutes but 240 doesn't come out until close to 3am EDT

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cdas-sflux_sst_watl_1.png&key=4487b354278ecd88101e2b6faef09f3beeb8e10df7ce479167d485ff84a7cebe

 

I mean they are well into the 80s until Cape Hatteras, a storm won't spin down that significantly the last 75 miles if verbatim this run were correct. At the speed it would be moving it would have maybe 6 hours not over 82 degree water. Not saying it is probable or likely or anything along that line, but I wouldn't completely rule it out at all especially if it is a strong cat 5 which there is a chance coming out of the Bahamas.

 

I'm not even focusing on the SSTs. I realize fast moving systems take time to wind down. But in this case, you would still have rapid pressure rise in an eyewall that is being undercut by a larger mid-latitudinal low/trough mid-level flow at that latitude. Perhaps Irma isn't going through baroclinic processes, but a sub 920 mb low making landfall into the Del/Penn/NJ is just pure fantasy. The same mechanics in the atmosphere to get the vortex at that position in the first place are also going to be significantly weakening it. Perhaps the surface pressure remains below 940 mb, but the intensity of an eyewall is disrupted to the extent that 155+ mph winds will not be sustained at sea level. That's why I think the GFS showing that intensity 850mb level down is garbage.

 

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Ok, is it like a 0.2% chance?  Sure, if we have a 175 mph storm right off the coast of North Carolina, then maybe it could hold on long enough as it headed north.  

Now even though it is unlikely and never been recorded, I would be less dismissive of a category 5 being able to occur in the Carolinas.  In theory...

Dismissive of a cat 5 in the carolinas? We've had 5's and 4's it isn't historically abnormal.

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21 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

It has nothing to do with the dust. It's the low humidity of the air that carries the dust. Dumping dust into humid air would do jack diddly.

So you need a plan to dehumidify millions of cubic miles of air. Good luck with that. 

lol I see it gets really "entertaining" here late at night, people arguing over space bars and rainfall amounts and how far north Cat 5s can "go".....but since we're talking "experimental" stuff, how much energy would be required to generate enough wind shear to simulate how nature often weakens one of these storms?

*edit after reading what he said and what you said again, wouldn't dumping particulate matter into humid air just help to create condensation and thus cause more rain to fall ?

 

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3 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

Dismissive of a cat 5 in the carolinas? We've had 5's and 4's it isn't historically abnormal.

Cat 5 has landfalled in the Carolinas?  When?

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24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, imagine if is struck on 9/11, too...what a kick in the jimmies for the nation.

I was thinking about that too- actually on 9/11/01 there was a hurricane that missed the east coast by less than 200 miles.

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12 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Honestly I would agree under normal circumstances, but seeing so many records fall all over the world over the last 15 years, gives me pause.

Same here, but a lot of those are precip records, which could be due to increased blocking (we see increased precip totals with winter events now too.)  To get  Cat 5 at that latitude requires more than just warm SST, you need an ideal no-shear environment, which is hard to do at these latitudes.  Heck, it's even hard to do in the tropics.  We haven't had many Cat 5s even in the near 90 bathwater of the GOM, Caribbean, etc.

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Just now, thewxmann said:

Man reading some of these comments I'd think that Cat 5's happened all the time in the Atlantic. Never mind that we went 9 years without one, much less one at 35N.

That's basically what I was saying.  You get very few of them even in the near 90 degree bathwater where they are "supposed" to happen.

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13 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

I'm not even focusing on the SSTs. I realize fast moving systems take time to wind down. But in this case, you would still have rapid pressure rise in an eyewall that is being undercut by a larger mid-latitudinal low/trough mid-level flow at that latitude. Perhaps Irma isn't going through baroclinic processes, but a sub 920 mb low making landfall into the Del/Penn/NJ is just pure fantasy. The same mechanics in the atmosphere to get the vortex at that position in the first place are also going to be significantly weakening it. Perhaps the surface pressure remains below 940 mb, but the intensity of an eyewall is disrupted to the extent that 155+ mph winds will not be sustained at sea level. That's why I think the GFS showing that intensity 850mb level down is garbage.

 

Yeah, I mean even when Sandy was a hurricane near the south NJ coast at 938 mb or so, it never even got to Cat 2.  In that position, its sustained winds were like 90 mph.

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Looking at the ocean temperature map it would seem as though the limit for a Category 5 would be at Virginia Beach fresh off the gulf stream weakening rapidly under perfect conditions. I would draw the line in the sand there, anything past that up the Delmarva or through the Chesapeake Bay just seems ridiculous. That has always been a question of mine just how high in latitude can a Category 5 major Hurricane get? Who knows, in the end the chances of Irma hitting as a Category 5 anywhere seems like a push. Let alone making land fall at all. I'm sure I along with many others sound like a broken record, and I lack the knowledge to make very insightful posts in terms of meteorology but I do know when a topic has been de-railed by a debate on the intensity 7-10 days out. I'm here to stay informed, offer my two cents, laugh a little, and learn. No one knows exactly what lies ahead, but I want to be one of the first who do know. ;)

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6 minutes ago, tim123 said:

But the wind field was huge. That's the reason. Low pressure but spread out hundreds of miles around it

 

6 minutes ago, tim123 said:

But the wind field was huge. That's the reason. Low pressure but spread out hundreds of miles around it

Yeah these things typically expand at our latitudes.  Conservation of momentum means the highest wind speeds are lower, but spread out over a larger area.

Surge can still be much higher though, as that is accumulated when the storm was stronger.

 

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Euro dropping some energy down from North of Hudsons bay at 120hrs.  This is going to make less of a cutoff on this run

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1 hour ago, TriPol said:

I think new laws of physics apply because of the new climate we're living in. It's now possible to get a storm of that magnitude all the way up here and for Houston to get 50"of rain in one week. Scary.

Warning: This post is offered as an honest effort to mitigate some of the hyperbole, I've been reading, associated with "Irma" and the most recent long range model runs:   

I totally understand the excitement derived from these recent model runs suggestive of a prospective category-five hurricane on the East coast, N of Florida.  That said, I believe the probabilities of such an occurrence is closer to 0% than any other numerical figure.  Not only is there a significant decrease in OHC as one goes N of 30N, but the synoptics in the subtropics and mid-latitudes are much more hostile to TC's of major hurricane intensity (much less a category 4/5 deep H).   

Moreover, the increased size of a typical H above 30N requires a much deeper BP to sustain a pressure gradient tight enough to support category-five intensity.  As such, these extreme long range model runs, showing central pressures typical of a category 4/5, would more likely correspond to at least a full category, if not two, below that magnitude. Currently, "Hugo" is the most intense H (934 mb/120 kt/140 mph) to hit the US above 30N.  I most definitely believe the atmospheric/oceanic conditions can support a category-four intensity H up to 35N, in the right circumstances, but I highly doubt there is any reasonable atmospheric scenario whereby we will be witnessing a category-five landfall above 33 N.  And, probabilities aren't too great for such an eventuality above 31N, for that matter.  

As for the record-setting extreme rainfall produced by Harvey, one much recognize that the largest contributor to those 50" totals was the extended duration of the event: directly attributable to the agonizingly slow and erratic movement of the tropical system.  Such incredible rainfall rates aren't  as uncommon as they may otherwise appear.  For example, H "Camille" of 1969 went on to deliver an astounding 27.35" of rainfall in a single 8 hour period, as a tropical depression in central Virginia.  Amazingly,  officials believed that totals of 40" were a more accurate figure given that many rain gauges in the area were unable to handle such dramatic amounts,. while others, were simply washed away with the great floods they created.  

Regardless, it will be quite interesting to see if "Irma" can achieve an intensity remotely close to those 900 mb extremes over the open Atlantic, and whether or not, it ultimately makes a direct landfall on some portion of the US coastline.  Right now, it is still far too early for anyone to reasonably suggest, categorically, that there will be a MH landfall on the US East Coast.  Even 5 days out, from the presumed trajectory Irma will be traveling, it could just as easily recurve and miss the USA, altogether.  To clarify, I'm not suggesting that a MH landfall won't occur, but simply, that it's still too early to make any definitive conclusions.   Anyway, time will tell! 

 

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Yes this ECMWF builds interior U.S. 500mb heights and completely ejects the trough.

 

That whole going nuts on model runs thing 8-10 days out, etc., etc., etc.,.....

 

Flippity flip..

 

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Miami catastrophe incoming on this run. More ridging, nothing to really turn appreciably north.

If not Miami definitely into Florida or GA. Very strong too.

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