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snywx

Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley Second Half 2018

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2 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

I thought you were in dept 10 from your location.

Grew up in VC, live on the border of nyack and vc now. Will hopefully move back to vc shortly. 

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Radar looks fine to me. This thing is bombing out (just check out the gravity waves and rapidly cooling cloud tops on IR sat) and there's hasn't been a model in days that had meaningful snow from the coastal low starting before 1 pm. SPC mesoanalysis has a closed 700mb isohypse well inland over southern NJ. Stay the course.

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Just now, Juliancolton said:

Radar looks fine to me. This thing is bombing out (just check out the gravity waves and rapidly cooling cloud tops on IR sat) and there's hasn't been a model in days that had meaningful snow from the coastal low starting before 1 pm. SPC mesoanalysis has a closed 700mb isohypse well inland over southern NJ. Stay the course.

On the vis loop it appears to be closer to the number coast that the pressure drops are showing

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6 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Radar looks fine to me. This thing is bombing out (just check out the gravity waves and rapidly cooling cloud tops on IR sat) and there's hasn't been a model in days that had meaningful snow from the coastal low starting before 1 pm. SPC mesoanalysis has a closed 700mb isohypse well inland over southern NJ. Stay the course.

Will try to keep the faith, and patience 

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3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

On the vis loop it appears to be closer to the number coast that the pressure drops are showing

It's an elongated trough-like thing right now, so it's sort of subjective to pinpoint where the low is. The circulation is a little offset to the west of the lowest pressures, like you say. The big band is still surging north... I think it'll make it here.

As it stands, every twig and pine needle is already caked in snow. If we do get into double digit totals, it'll probably be another few very cold and dark days in the neighborhood.

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5 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

It's an elongated trough-like thing right now, so it's sort of subjective to pinpoint where the low is. The circulation is a little offset to the west of the lowest pressures, like you say. The big band is still surging north... I think it'll make it here.

As it stands, every twig and pine needle is already caked in snow. If we do get into double digit totals, it'll probably be another few very cold and dark days in the neighborhood.

Agree, and if we do get into those heavy snow rates, it will put some trees and limbs in stress.

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8 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

Closing in on 5".

Moderate snow. 31F.

Approaching 5" here as well. All of Orange county upgraded to 15-20" Hopefully we can get the real serious banding up here before the pivot

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10 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

It's an elongated trough-like thing right now, so it's sort of subjective to pinpoint where the low is. The circulation is a little offset to the west of the lowest pressures, like you say. The big band is still surging north... I think it'll make it here.

As it stands, every twig and pine needle is already caked in snow. If we do get into double digit totals, it'll probably be another few very cold and dark days in the neighborhood.

What do you think the chances of those legit bands making it up here before the pivot?

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Just now, s_parr1092 said:

3.1” OTG and starting to get heavier in Middletown. Beginning to stick to surfaces that have been clear all morning.


.

What side of Middletown are you in?

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1 minute ago, snywx said:

What do you think the chances are those legit bands make it up here before the pivot?

The position of the system right now looks consistent with getting the intense forcing overhead for most of us, but like we've said for days, it all depends on the trajectory of the low as it interacts with the upper trough. The HRRR has it jumping barely north of east within a few hours, so that would really limit the northwestward extend of banding. I would say that we all likely get under that primary fronto band for a time. The problem is that it'll be transient on account of the ENE tug, so I wouldn't bet on more than a few hours of rippage west of the Taconic. Somewhere like HPN is going to be under the pivot, and that's where I suspect the 12+ totals will be most common. Should be fun to watch...

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There's turning to the radar echoes that seems to indicate a mesolow over the DE Bay, on the western edge of the surface trough axis. That wouldn't influence the ultimate storm track much, but it may try to torque the banding a little further west than it would otherwise reach.

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6 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

The position of the system right now looks consistent with getting the intense forcing overhead for most of us, but like we've said for days, it all depends on the trajectory of the low as it interacts with the upper trough. The HRRR has it jumping barely north of east within a few hours, so that would really limit the northwestward extend of banding. I would say that we all likely get under that primary fronto band for a time. The problem is that it'll be transient on account of the ENE tug, so I wouldn't bet on more than a few hours of rippage west of the Taconic. Somewhere like HPN is going to be under the pivot, and that's where I suspect the 12+ totals will be most common. Should be fun to watch...

Has per the latest radar loops, it appears to be forming well and moving north along the nj coast.

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1 minute ago, s_parr1092 said:


Some old guy that’s been hanging around these weather boards for the past 20 years ;)

 

6 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Who taught you how to measure snow correctly to the tenth of an inch...B)

Like father like son? lol.. @IrishRob17 loves to hear when @JerseyWx reports 4.3581"

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Like father like son? lol.. [mention=212]IrishRob17[/mention] loves to hear when [mention=13440]JerseyWx[/mention] reports 4.3581"

That is correct. And how one can get that precise of a measurement is beyond me.

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These aggregates are freaking enormous. You get the feeling that each one adds an inch to the depth at its landing site. Vis close to 0 at times... as heavy as, or heavier than, anything I saw in the Catskills on Friday. This is amazing. 

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