Juliancolton Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Wait thats the gfs not the nam? Hmm. That's what really struck me. The NAM is always overcaffeinated but when the globals start hinting at Feb 2013-caliber rates, you take notice. Middle of the day is just icing on the cake if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 26 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: I’m not gonna lie, I need to study these more in order to understand all the info that they contain. If you know the basics of lapse rates and snow microphysics, the rest of the stuff is mostly incidental for winter forecasting. I largely learned to read skew-t charts by "feel" before I sat down and studied the minutiae... that is, I just occasionally looked at forecast and actual soundings out of curiosity for years and eventually developed an instinct for what looked good and what didn't. You can tell from that frame that the atmosphere would be extremely unstable compared to most snowstorms, and the precip-forming cloud layer would be very deep with the saturated troposphere and upward motion (negative omega) extending through a large portion of the column. There's definite thundersnow potential there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Millersville used to have some good info online, but back on eastern i think either Will or dt had actually made a thread about it which was a huge help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 0z 3k NAM is widespread 18-24" up here lol.. The usual snow spots of the Hudson Highlands look to jack with 20-25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, snywx said: 0z 3k NAM is widespread 18-24" up here lol.. The usual snow spots of the Hudson Highlands look to jack with 20-25" Nice map to look at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Nice map to look at. If I didn't know any better I would think I was looking at a snow map of 12/30/00. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Map schmap. I ain’t counting any chickens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 If this verified, a little redemption for the snowhole from the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Hitman said: Map schmap. I ain’t counting any chickens. You might not be able to see them if the NAM map verified. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: You might not be able to see them if the NAM map verified. From your mouth to gods ears 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Power's out again. Thank goodness the coming storm looks locked in or I'd be despondent by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Bummer JC We got pushed back and now the worry is it won't be on before the storm which means it's probably the weekend, at best, before it is. If the weekend storm is as bad as it looks who knows what's gonna be. I really need a hot shower... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I think I'm going to go get a generator today. Will one of those quiet little Honda ones be sufficient to run a space heater a lamp and a coffee maker? It's down below 50 degrees in the house, I'm just about out of firewood and I need to come up with some sort of solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, gravitylover said: I think I'm going to go get a generator today. Will one of those quiet little Honda ones be sufficient to run a space heater a lamp and a coffee maker? It's down below 50 degrees in the house, I'm just about out of firewood and I need to come up with some sort of solution. I’d be pretty confident that the little generator can do that. Are you having trouble getting firewood delivered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 It's not so much trouble getting it delivered its what it costs. I could just as easily get a generator and be able to have lights and heat rather than just heat in one room from the fireplace. I'm also not trusting that my chimney is going to be able to handle this for too much longer it's already been running for 5 days straight. It would be a different story if I had a wood stove that burned clean but all of the wood that seems to be available now is wet and it produces more smoke than heat and a fireplace is pretty much the worst way to try to generate heat anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 46 minutes ago, gravitylover said: It's not so much trouble getting it delivered its what it costs. I could just as easily get a generator and be able to have lights and heat rather than just heat in one room from the fireplace. I'm also not trusting that my chimney is going to be able to handle this for too much longer it's already been running for 5 days straight. It would be a different story if I had a wood stove that burned clean but all of the wood that seems to be available now is wet and it produces more smoke than heat and a fireplace is pretty much the worst way to try to generate heat anyway. I have a wood stove and burn a good amount. We’ve been on the fence about getting another cord before the end of the season. I have about a quarter of a cord left having gone through about 2 cords to date. Could be just enough or not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 hours ago, Yankees29 said: Just check the wattage of the appliances you want to run and be sure the wattage rating of the generator exceeds the total by a comfortable margin. Also be sure to get heavy duty extension cords to connect the appliances. And (obviously) be sure to have an ample supply of gasoline. Good luck! @gravitylover this is exactly what I was going to say, do some math to see how much you need from a generator. My generator is 3000 or 3500 watts and that is enough to do what your looking to do, at least enough for me. I don’t run a bunch of high energy stuff at the same time though, like run the fridge then when that’s down to the right temp, run the heat. My generator is enough to run my furnace but that involves a little wiring so I’m not sure how comfortable you are doing that but I also have run an oil filled space heater. Just getting a lamp, chargers, TV and internet going again can be comforting. I have satellite TV so that works as long as there’s power, if you have cable I’m guessing it that’s probably out for you as well though. It’s going to be awesome when you do get it back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 NWS just increased amounts to 12-18 from 7-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 What's everybody thinking for tomorrow? 12" seems to be a tough hurdle to surmount in most events, so a general 8-12" is probably the safe bet. It's basically a 9-12 hour show now that the stall has been erased from modeling... if banding doesn't set up as hoped, or the mid levels dry out a little toward the back half of the event, it'll be tough to get very far into Albany's 12-18" range. Hopefully we get some nice surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: What's everybody thinking for tomorrow? 12" seems to be a tough hurdle to surmount in most events, so a general 8-12" is probably the safe bet. It's basically a 9-12 hour show now that the stall has been erased from modeling... if banding doesn't set up as hoped, or the mid levels dry out a little toward the back half of the event, it'll be tough to get very far into Albany's 12-18" range. Hopefully we get some nice surprises. I think 8-14 inches, 8 outside banding, around 14 with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Why did NWS Albany increase amounts from 7-12 to 12-18? The westward trend on guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Why did NWS Albany increase amounts from 7-12 to 12-18? The westward trend on guidance? Their afternoon AFD should be out soon, will be an interesting read. I will note from the midday discussion that they seemed to be interested in the possibility of non-trivial accumulations from mesoscale processes during the day on Thursday. I almost got a Feb 2014 vibe from reading that earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 After Fridays debacle IMBY I really don’t know what to expect but I’m hoping for 10-14” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I’ve been pretty busy at work today so I haven’t had a chance to look at much aside from glances here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 steady as she snows! NWS has me at 10-18". I fully expect not to break 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 So.. shovel or snow blower? Whatcha got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Quote Strong frontogenetical forcing in the 850 to 500 mb layer will be a major factor in enhancing snowfall rates during the afternoon and evening. Cross sections reveal very weak static stability above the layer of frontogenesis with moist isentropes nearly vertical for a time. This all leads to high confidence in intense banding, with this event also being reminiscent of the pivoting band composite in recent CSTAR research. Snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour will be possible during the afternoon and evening. Where exactly the most intense banding sets up is always difficult to pinpoint, with CSTAR research indicating that it tends to form a bit removed from the impinging dry slot. The dry slot may tend to punch into portions of the mid Hudson Valley and northwest Connecticut during the evening hours, but will likely have greater impacts in cutting down snowfall totals to our south and east. Latest thinking is that the heaviest snowfall rates will spread south to north across the forecast area roughly 17-01Z (noon to 8 pm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: So.. shovel or snow blower? Whatcha got? I use my subcompact front-end loader almost exclusively these days. I can push the entire driveway's snow into one big pile that lasts deep into the next torch... then go steal a few buckets from plow piles at the end of the street to fortify the pile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: I’ve been pretty busy at work today so I haven’t had a chance to look at much aside from glances here and there. Same here.. Looks like a general 12-18" for the area. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 24" amounts popping up in favored upslope areas & areas of banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Ive been too busy deleting sh*t to look at any soundings or anything. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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