snowlover2 Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 Enhanced area has been issued for tomorrow for parts of MN/WI. Quote Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of damaging winds and hail is expected on Sunday mainly across central and southern Minnesota eastward across Wisconsin. A couple tornadoes are possible as well. ...Synopsis... Strong w/swly flow aloft will be maintained across the northern Plains, upper MS valley and Great Lakes region around the periphery of the southeastern high and with an active storm track across Canada. At the surface, a warm front will stretch roughly from central MN into WI Sunday morning, lifting northward during the day. A very moist and unstable air mass will already be in place near this front, supporting severe storms without the aid of much heating. Increasing southwesterly 850 mb flow will also enhance lift and moisture flux into the area, possibly supporting multiple eastward-moving storm systems producing damaging winds and hail. ...Eastern SD...central and southern MN...much of WI... Scattered storms, possibly a severe MCS, will be ongoing across eastern SD early Sunday morning near the warm front. This system is expected to gain intensity throughout the day as it travels east into MN, where a very moist and unstable air mass will reside. Models vary with latitudinal position of the warm front, but it should generally stretch from central MN across northern WI at 18Z. Various model solutions are in very good agreement depicting the scenario of a long-lived convective cluster traveling eastward along the warm front during the day, with additional activity possible in the 00-06 time frame northwest of the earlier activity. However, uncertainty exists with the exact location of the warm frontal corridor, thus, the Enhanced Risk area encompasses most model solutions. Aside from the positioning of the warm front, several rounds of storms producing outflow will also have an impact on additional afternoon/evening storms. Damaging winds should be the primary severe hazard, with steep lapse rates aloft also supporting hail. A tornado threat is possible but highly dependent on storm mode being cellular and away from the surging outflows. If the air mass can recover behind the early activity, a couple tornadoes are certainly possible along the warm front. Further, a brief tornado risk cannot be ruled out with any cells that form along the lifting warm front during the day, just ahead of the approaching MCS. ..Jewell.. 06/10/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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