• Member Statistics

    16,251
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Mindlesssheep
    Newest Member
    Mindlesssheep
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Typhoon Tip

The Blizzard of the Ides, 2017 ...observation time

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The odds this will be a nuclear meltdown day for americanwx are increasing 

i'm sure weenies will find solace its the WCB pelting them (lol) but really is anyone in mass safe from the taint by 4pm?

I'm hopeful.  But this steady eastward trend is a b**ch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

measuring this will be a b**ch.  This is not man snow.

It's powder and blowing around, but it's definitely on the more dense side so far.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Those who stay all snow are going to get pummeled. Going by the thermal profiles most of the three SNE states will flip (save NW corner of MA)
It's just the way it is. Sleet fest incoming.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, moneypitmike said:

My sister in Brooklyn just posted that it's a bust.

 

Heavy snow here....waves of it lowing in the wind.  Time to rock, I guess.

Trying to decide whether the 18-24 inch forecast from yesterday is more embarrassing than the 24-36 inch forecast from 1/25/2015. OKX has not had any luck with big snow forecasts. When they go high, we go low.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Guidance has been pretty consistent at sending taint to a lot of people by 20-21z. It's what happens between now and then that matters. That's where the 12-15" in 6 hours is coming from. 

the problem in my opinion is not that the heavy rates won't be there but that guidance is notoriously slow in bringing in Warm air aloft. When every hour is 3" of snow and we know forecasts are too slow to bring in warm air aloft and with the ground truth to the South west,  its time to take em down by at LEAST 1/3, no?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

the problem in my opinion is not that the heavy rates won't be there but that guidance is notoriously slow in bringing in Warm air aloft. When every hour is 3" of snow and we know forecasts are too slow to bring in warm air aloft and with the ground truth to the South west,  its time to take em down by at LEAST 1/3, no?

Take it down by 1-3"? I dunno if I'm that confident that mixing will happen in ORH at 19z vs 21z...are you? I'd keep my range fairly wide....like 10-16" or something. That should cover a 2 hour wiggle room for mixing. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Those who stay all snow are going to get pummeled. Going by the thermal profiles most of the three SNE states will flip (save NW corner of MA)
It's just the way it is. Sleet fest incoming.

No way it makes it that far hartford south probably maybe to springfield at the very end but they do great before that

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So are mets thinking the Euro is too cold?

Did anyone ever say what the euro had for H7 temps? It wasn't talked about really since this isn't a SWFE, but with a monster WCB it's a similar deal with the warm tongue way aloft.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If north of the Pike taints it's probably late enough as to where the thump is already about done. I doubt N or Rt. 2 and W of 495 taints outside of snizzle/crap when the dryslot moves in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Take it down by 1-3"? I dunno if I'm that confident that mixing will happen in ORH at 19z vs 21z...are you? I'd keep my range fairly wide....like 10-16" or something. That should cover a 2 hour wiggle room for mixing. 

i think ORH mixes by 2-3pm. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

Trying to decide whether the 18-24 inch forecast from yesterday is more embarrassing than the 24-36 inch forecast from 1/25/2015. OKX has not had any luck with big snow forecasts. When they go high, we go low.

 

They consistently get burned for being too bullish on snow. In last night's disco they cited the GEFS as a reason to keep everyone all snow. Sometimes, it's hard to buy what OKX wants to sell you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

Um wow it's pure whiteout conditions, Upton drops the bliz warning and I immediately start seeing blizzard conditions. lol

Yeah, geez. This is really heavy now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Um wow it's pure whiteout conditions, Upton drops the bliz warning and I immediately start seeing blizzard conditions. lol

Because you're unlikely to see it for 3 or more consecutive hours. Getting some decent flake production here now, but it's about 50/50 snow and sleet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, dendrite said:

Did anyone ever say what the euro had for H7 temps? It wasn't talked about really since this isn't a SWFE, but with a monster WCB it's a similar deal with the warm to gue way aloft.

I saw an early AM met post that had Euro keeping even HVN snow .. I forget what he said thermals were , but it was borderline there

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

It's pretty ridiculous outside right now crazy winds heavy snow looks like at least 2-3 per hour, whiteout conditions. Approaching 6". Be very very lucky if we see a foot here.

Did you have any sleet when the heavy band first came in? I'm just to your south in North Branford (12 miles from water). Sleet mixed in on approach of band, all snow now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Did anyone ever say what the euro had for H7 temps? It wasn't talked about really since this isn't a SWFE, but with a monster WCB it's a similar deal with the warm tongue way aloft.

At 18z it has the -4 isotherm over the pike. -2 over TOL but 0c is still offshore to the south. Looks like by 00z it gets the cape and maybe even scooters digs. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I saw an early AM met post that had Euro keeping even HVN snow .. I forget what he said thermals were , but it was borderline there

I guess. I don't have any ec temps above H85...not sure if wxbell has them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.