• Member Statistics

    15,883
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    WeatherArbordoctor
    Newest Member
    WeatherArbordoctor
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Bob Chill

Winter 2017-18 Disco

Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, Mason Dixon said:

You are assuming it is right. Don't tell me you aren't assuming anything.

You don't seem to be getting the context of the discussion.

re: Advertised +h5 height anomalies and your subjective observation that the advertised surface temps are not as warm as expected. I simply provided an explanation for why that may be the case. My mistake for engaging. Carry on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

You don't seem to be getting the context of the discussion.

re: Advertised +h5 height anomalies and your subjective observation that the advertised surface temps are not as warm as expected. I simply provided an explanation for why that may be the case. My mistake for engaging. Carry on.

But you are basing your thoughts on the Cansips being right 60 days from now. If that isn't assuming something than I don't know what to tell you. Perhaps go look at the CFS forecast for next November I guess. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Mason Dixon said:

But you are basing your thoughts on the Cansips being right 60 days from now. If that isn't assuming something than I don't know what to tell you. Perhaps go look at the CFS forecast for next November I guess. 

No. I'm not.

Friendly advice- read more, and confine your posts to banter until you figure out how things work here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

No. I'm not.

Friendly advice- read more, and confine your posts to banter until you figure out how things work here.

Wut??? You told me why the Cansips in January look they way they do. since this is only November 1st you damn well are basing your interpretation on them being right. And keep your friendly advice to yourself. I don't want it or need it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry for starting trouble.  Lol

Look,  I know many take the position that 2m temps shouldn't be considered in seasonal models,  only 5h. I don't agree.  I believe one should consider upper air and surface products simply to see if they are consistent.  If not, that gives me pause.  Now, I don't think anyone can know why the 2 products are inconsistent, only guess. In short, 5h normally rules the roost, but the surface and 5h are inconsistent on the Cansips.  Does it mean the surface product is wrong or the 5h? Is it a garbage run? We'll see. But in a month we'll forget about what this run says. Lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Sorry for starting trouble.  Lol

Look,  I know many take the position that 2m temps shouldn't be considered in seasonal models,  only 5h. I don't agree.  I believe one should consider upper air and surface products simply to see if they are consistent.  If not, that gives me pause.  Now, I don't think anyone can know why the 2 products are inconsistent, only guess. In short, 5h normally rules the roost, but the surface and 5h are inconsistent on the Cansips.  Does it mean the surface product is wrong or the 5h? Is it a garbage run? We'll see. But in a month we'll forget about what this run says. Lol

Nah, no trouble. We wrangle. It's what we do. 

Smoothing probably plays a role in what you are seeing. CanSips is around +2F for Dec at 2 month leads but it's very rare when multi month lead stuff shows large departures because of smoothing. If Dec mean h5 verifies I can pretty much guaranty the month ends up warmer than +2F. CanSips nailed h5 for Oct but temps for the 10/1 run were +3-3.5F. Actual temp anom was +5-5.5 around the region. 

This is nitpicking and dancing around the elephant though. Dec h5 is a horrendous pattern for snow. That is the much bigger issue than debating +2 or 4 or whatever temp wise. The CanSips isn't the only model showing a grotesque pattern. CFS looks basically the same. Am I hanging my hat on it? No, not at all. Long lead modeling is inherently inaccurate because we're far from having the technology for accuracy at that kind of range. You know I'll be the first to point out a good pattern on any model at any lead. Unfortunately not a single one does at 2 week, 1 month, or seasonal leads. There is consensus though. They ALL suck. lol

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nah, no trouble. We wrangle. It's what we do. 

Smoothing probably plays a role in what you are seeing. CanSips is around +2F for Dec at 2 month leads but it's very rare when multi month lead stuff shows large departures because of smoothing. If Dec mean h5 verifies I can pretty much guaranty the month ends up warmer than +2F. CanSips nailed h5 for Oct but temps for the 10/1 run were +3-3.5F. Actual temp anom was +5-5.5 around the region. 

This is nitpicking and dancing around the elephant though. Dec h5 is a horrendous pattern for snow. That is the much bigger issue than debating +2 or 4 or whatever temp wise. The CanSips isn't the only model showing a grotesque pattern. CFS looks basically the same. Am I hanging my hat on it? No, not at all. Long lead modeling is inherently inaccurate because we're far from having the technology for accuracy at that kind of range. You know I'll be the first to point out a good pattern on any model at any lead. Unfortunately not a single one does at 2 week, 1 month, or seasonal leads. There is consensus though. They ALL suck. lol

great post Bob.  I don't think at this point in time we would believe CanSips or the CFS if it showed an epic pattern. We'd be happy about it but way skeptical.  Last year we saw some great modeled patterns in the long range that never materialized. Not going to worry just yet. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Mason Dixon said:

Wut??? You told me why the Cansips in January look they way they do. since this is only November 1st you damn well are basing your interpretation on them being right. And keep your friendly advice to yourself. I don't want it or need it. 

You should listen to the advice.  There have been many who have learned the hard way that you don't go into another forum and stir up stuff.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Sorry for starting trouble.  Lol

Look,  I know many take the position that 2m temps shouldn't be considered in seasonal models,  only 5h. I don't agree.  I believe one should consider upper air and surface products simply to see if they are consistent.  If not, that gives me pause.  Now, I don't think anyone can know why the 2 products are inconsistent, only guess. In short, 5h normally rules the roost, but the surface and 5h are inconsistent on the Cansips.  Does it mean the surface product is wrong or the 5h? Is it a garbage run? We'll see. But in a month we'll forget about what this run says. Lol

So you started this, huh?  Should have known. 

:hug:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Nah, no trouble. We wrangle. It's what we do. 

Smoothing probably plays a role in what you are seeing. CanSips is around +2F for Dec at 2 month leads but it's very rare when multi month lead stuff shows large departures because of smoothing. If Dec mean h5 verifies I can pretty much guaranty the month ends up warmer than +2F. CanSips nailed h5 for Oct but temps for the 10/1 run were +3-3.5F. Actual temp anom was +5-5.5 around the region. 

This is nitpicking and dancing around the elephant though. Dec h5 is a horrendous pattern for snow. That is the much bigger issue than debating +2 or 4 or whatever temp wise. The CanSips isn't the only model showing a grotesque pattern. CFS looks basically the same. Am I hanging my hat on it? No, not at all. Long lead modeling is inherently inaccurate because we're far from having the technology for accuracy at that kind of range. You know I'll be the first to point out a good pattern on any model at any lead. Unfortunately not a single one does at 2 week, 1 month, or seasonal leads. There is consensus though. They ALL suck. lol

The gefs pattern starting from around day 7 to day 10 starts to be less hostile and with a few tweaks (GOA) would at least probably be a chilly pattern.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, North Balti Zen said:

It feels like our default D/J/F pattern now is a raging +AO/NAO to ruin winter and then a complete block when we don't want it in M/A/M to ruin spring.

Winter blocking is a myth until proven otherwise.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How it goes at this point:

Dec - good lord it's warm

Jan - pattern change gonna be here any minute now

Feb - wow, the Tulip Trees are in bud

March - pushing 0 on March 24 and all the cherry blossoms are dead along with every other spring bloom

April - 43 and east wind for weeks, NPZ running victory laps on how awesome it is while everyone else tries to decide if it's justifiable to have him killed

May - 53 and east wind for days, people wonder why thunderstorms no longer occur in the Mid-Atl, and then straight to 93 and above for highs by May 20.

 

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
How it goes at this point:

Dec - good lord it's warm

Jan - pattern change gonna be here any minute now

Feb - wow, the Tulip Trees are in bud

March - pushing 0 on March 24 and all the cherry blossoms are dead along with every other spring bloom

April - 43 and east wind for weeks, NPZ running victory laps on how awesome it is while everyone else tries to decide if it's justifiable to have him killed

May - 53 and east wind for days, people wonder why thunderstorms no longer occur in the Mid-Atl, and then straight to 93 and above for highs by May 20.

 



March is the new best winter month. Haven't you heard?
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Apparently the CMC just had a big upgrade today which should improve medium range skill per tropical tidbits guru Levi. 

Bottom line: go all in on any day 8+ CMC blizzard.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Apparently the CMC just had a big upgrade today which should improve medium range skill per tropical tidbits guru Levi. 

Bottom line: go all in on any day 8+ CMC blizzard.

you mean we weren't supposed to before today  

 

embarrassment.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You know something big is going to happen when this thread has over 900 posts on November 1.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/31/2017 at 0:03 PM, fountainguy97 said:

I also did a lot of reasearch on modoki winter years. My conclusion from that was we want/need a cold 1.2 region to have hopes for a Niña year.  A Central pacific (modoki) Niña gives us a lot of warmth and ridging while east pacific leans toward -nao helping us out.

I found the same last year when doing research for winter, that regardless of Nino or Nina it seems we want the central tropical PAC warmer then to the east. Modoki Nino still is better then east based Nina but the concept is the same that we want the Warner water anomalies centered to the west to give us the forcing we want in winter. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

El Nino + NA blocking. Book it for real this time.

For this winter, I am just gonna go with, "it cant be any worse than last winter", and we probably will not be as unlucky when we do get a decent look. It surely wont suck the whole time, but  there is literally nothing to be very encouraged about right now.

Be careful with the "it can't be worse". One of the analogs is 1950 and that was the worst snowfall total up here. Only 3.5". Last year I nickel and dimed my way to 20" at least. Not sure how bad it was in D.C. But I'm pretty sure it was a snowless winter for most of the mid Atlantic. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not writing anything off. Just managing expectations based on the data available. Weak nina's or cold neutrals aren't a death knell or anything. This biggest issue that we seem to be facing is the potential of another GD +AO. Combine that with enso and you can't make a case for a cold winter and storm track will likely be nw of us. 

The only thing that saved 13-14, 14-15, and the icy winter of the early 90's (93-94?) was a sick -epo. All 3 of those winters had some problems with storm track at times but there was enough cold around to make it work. Drop enough arctic highs in the east and it will snow here eventually even with progressive flow and no blocking. 

The tricky part of progressive winters is even when you get the cold it moves in and out in 3 days so there has to be good timing. The technical description of a progressive flow winter is warm wet/cold dry 8 times out of 10. 

I really wish one damn model would show a -ao right now so at least I would have something to hug. 

 

About a month ago I parsed every month in the analog set we were working with and found only a few months that managed snow without a -nao. And 2014 had 2/3 of those months I think. So absent getting some crazy off the chart anamoly in the epo or some similar freak event it's pretty clear that this winter we need nao help or it's a total no go close up shop setup. You know I'm not a pessimist but i also look at the data and it's clear we are in big trouble given the known variables if the nao doesn't cooperate. And the early signs aren't good. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Be careful with the "it can't be worse". One of the analogs is 1950 and that was the worst snowfall total up here. Only 3.5". Last year I nickel and dimed my way to 20" at least. Not sure how bad it was in D.C. But I'm pretty sure it was a snowless winter for most of the mid Atlantic. 

Sure it could always be worse, but we had plenty of bad luck too. Despite the persistent bad overall pattern, we had some decent periods that just didn't produce. And there was a cold powdery 10" snowstorm on the beaches in early January with a solid week of cold temps. Even in a bad winter, there will be chances.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

About a month ago I parsed every month in the analog set we were working with and found only a few months that managed snow without a -nao. And 2014 had 2/3 of those months I think. So absent getting some crazy off the chart anamoly in the epo or some similar freak event it's pretty clear that this winter we need nao help or it's a total no go close up shop setup. You know I'm not a pessimist but i also look at the data and it's clear we are in big trouble given the known variables if the nao doesn't cooperate. And the early signs aren't good. 

Agree. I think most here realize without a favorable AO/NAO for a solid chunk of met winter we would need a ton of luck and a fluke event or 2 to pull off something near climo.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, bigtenfan said:

That is actually not a bad forecast at all. I would sign up for that in a heart beat. What is their track record?

I really have no idea....Just started following them this year.  It sounds to me that it pretty much echoes what others in here have been saying.  "it all depends on bouts of -AO/NAO"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Long range GFS ensembles look really favorable. I like the progression right now... easy for Greenland ridging. I would guess a below average temperature Winter. 

Lots of people with their mouths open and not knowing what to say right now.  Lol

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Sorry for starting trouble.  Lol

Look,  I know many take the position that 2m temps shouldn't be considered in seasonal models,  only 5h. I don't agree.  I believe one should consider upper air and surface products simply to see if they are consistent.  If not, that gives me pause.  Now, I don't think anyone can know why the 2 products are inconsistent, only guess. In short, 5h normally rules the roost, but the surface and 5h are inconsistent on the Cansips.  Does it mean the surface product is wrong or the 5h? Is it a garbage run? We'll see. But in a month we'll forget about what this run says. Lol

One of the reasons H5 is "more important" on longer range model guidance is because it verifies better than surface temps. Surface temps have so many variables that can affect them...and thus, they score much lower on model guidance. Typically, when we look at H5 and extrapolate our own temperatures, we will actually score better than models at the surface.

Now I say this with the caveat that in your instance, it was a 2-4 month prog which is even further outside the typical model skill range. There is probably very low skill at both H5 and surface at that time lead.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First time post with an amateur question here...  I've been following this forum the last two winters and have learned a lot--kudos to you all. 

I'm wondering what people's thoughts are on the differences in projections for this winter for west of the Allegheny Front in WV.  Most 2017-2018 winter outlooks (NWS, Accuweather, the Weather Optics one above)  that have been posted thus far basically call for decent cold and normal to above normal snow in the great lakes region with below normal/warm in the mid-Atlantic.  Often that boundary line is drawn right through the Ohio valley at the Ohio/WV border up into NW PA.  Living right west of the Allegheny Front (Canaan Valley area), we get lots of lake effect snow and the front tends to divide the weather systems east and west.  I would be surprised if that cold/mild, lots of snow/less snow dividing line was actually the Ohio river vs being the Allegheny Front itself.  On the other hand, in last winter this pattern often played out with us getting rain to snow events when lower elevations 100 miles north in PA got snow.  

Would love to hear anyone's thoughts.  Thanks much.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.