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T-Storm/Squall Line Threat II 3/1


dmillz25

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3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

The line just doesn't have the bite that Saturday had, I think the key for today was to get the sunshine and the warmer temps earlier then we did even though alot of the area has warmed up substantially over the last couple of hours.

Pretty big temp bust as well.  63° here while forecast was for 71°, even Weather Underground had 72° this morning.  Needed the sun big time today.

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Just now, JerseyWx said:

Pretty big temp bust as well.  63° here while forecast was for 71°, even Weather Underground had 72° this morning.  Needed the sun big time today.

its low 70s less than 20 miles from you. Always hard to forecast when you're depending on a warm front moving through

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From SPC:

Across central/northern NJ
   into far southern NY, the atmosphere remains only weakly unstable,
   and the prospect for an appreciable wind threat north of the current
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains unclear.
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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It all looks mundane outside of the cells near Cape May County. Oh well, you win some, you lose some. The writing was on the wall two days ago when the models really slowed down the progression of the warm front. 

Nam 4k  1  HRRR - 0

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9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Sir, the 4k NAM had nothing, at least the HRRR showed heavier rain showers, which is correct.

those are dying out fast.  Best rains were here this AM got about .50.    Let's hope for some winds tomorrow...after that's it's boring for awhile

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9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

those are dying out fast.  Best rains were here this AM got about .50.    Let's hope for some winds tomorrow...after that's it's boring for awhile

Just goes to show you how quickly a great setup can turn completely meh. That's why we very rarely get all the pieces on the table here. The warm front was supposed to come through last night and it was clear on the later runs on Monday that it was going to be delayed.

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21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Sir, the 4k NAM had nothing, at least the HRRR showed heavier rain showers, which is correct.

it was incorrect those "heavier" echos seen on the HRRR and the radar flew past me so fast that we ended up with a light shower...........Basically NADA !

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

The NAM had an area with no rain, but it was too far north.   You missed all this AM's action by about 15 miles

let's face it no model is going to be perfect with the precip areas ............

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Even during the summer, it can be tough to get strong to severe storms following a decent round of morning convection. You could see yesterday that the models had several rounds of convection so it wouldn't be the single strong line we got on Saturday.

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even during the summer, it can be tough to get strong to severe storms following a decent round of morning convection. You could see yesterday that the models had several rounds of convection so it wouldn't be the single strong line we got on Saturday.

Yes, I think we need to remember our severe weather climo lol.  Maybe 1 out of 10 of these actually work out.  More for NJ and the LHV (more like 5 out of 10) and less for Long Island.

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12 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Yes, I think we need to remember our severe weather climo lol.  Maybe 1 out of 10 of these actually work out.  More for NJ and the LHV (more like 5 out of 10) and less for Long Island.

I can still remember that MDT risk day several years back maybe in June? Debris clouds and some morning convection took away from the afternoon potential that the SPC had highlighted. The opposite of this was Sep 10 where the the afternoon WAA came further north than forecast and NYC got one of their greatest severe outbreaks of all time.

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35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even during the summer, it can be tough to get strong to severe storms following a decent round of morning convection. You could see yesterday that the models had several rounds of convection so it wouldn't be the single strong line we got on Saturday.

agree-often with morning rains, it's tough to recover.   Especially this early in the year with a few less sunlight hours and heating....

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I can still remember that MDT risk day several years back maybe in June? Debris clouds and some morning convection took away from the afternoon potential that the SPC had highlighted. The opposite of this was Sep 10 where the the afternoon WAA came further north than forecast and NYC got one of their greatest severe outbreaks of all time.

Was that the one where we had large hail on the south shore? I think that might have been 1994.  I saw reports of car dealerships reporting bad damage to their cars.

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1 minute ago, Paragon said:

Was that the one where we had large hail on the south shore? I think that might have been 1994.  I saw reports of car dealerships reporting bad damage to their cars.

We didn't get anything during that MDT risk day and there were a bunch of bust posts that caused a dispute in the thread. But the Sep 10 QLCS./Macroburst/tornado pounded the city with not that much here on LI. I was actually out that day and didn't tune into Craig Allen on the car radio until I heard continuous static on the radio and knew something really big was up.

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