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Feb 28th - March 1st Severe Weather Outbreak

727 posts in this topic

33 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

 

Here is my full video of the Washburn, IL tornado along with a quick timelapse of tornadogeneis at the beginning. What a day and I'll upload some more pictures and a little chase account summary later tonight or tomorrow. 

This is a little late as I was out all day yesterday assisting with the Naplate/Ottawa tornado with Victor Gensini and another guy from NWS Chicago.

 

 

Awesome video. Great catch.

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The EF3 that crossed into Indiana is the state's strongest February tornado since 1959 (literally snuck in just under the clock.)

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51 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Here is my full video of the Washburn, IL tornado along with a quick timelapse of tornadogeneis at the beginning. What a day and I'll upload some more pictures and a little chase account summary later tonight or tomorrow. 

This is a little late as I was out all day yesterday assisting with the Naplate/Ottawa tornado with Victor Gensini and another guy from NWS Chicago.

Wow. Spectacular vid.

Reminds me of this video.

 

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32 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Wow. Spectacular vid.

Reminds me of this video.

 

That was my first thought seeing it too.  Ash Valley 2k17.  Remember seeing that Ash Valley tornado from one of the classic tornado VHS tapes

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According to NWS Paducah's twitter, they have consulted a team of experts to determine if the Perryville tornado was EF3 or EF4, and will have the final rating tomorrow. 

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16 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I found something interesting when going through the tornado archives.  There has been a huge increase in the frequency of February tornadoes in Illinois in the past 2 decades or so.  

I simply looked at years that had February tornadoes, without consideration for the number of tornadoes to avoid potential issues with inflation in more recent times. Get this.  From 1950-1995, there were a total of 6 years with February tornadoes in Illinois.  From 1996-2017, there were 8 years with February tornadoes in Illinois. That is more years than the first period and in less than half the time.  Interestingly, March has gone the other way, with a tendency toward less Marches producing tornadoes than in earlier decades.  I also found somewhat similar trends for February and March when looking at Indiana.

It's tempting to speculate about reasons for this trend.  But anyway, it could be a real problem if this is a trend that keeps up (and also if March starts increasing again), as February is a month that typically will have plenty of shear to take advantage of, given sufficient instability.

Really really, really difficult to speculate or draw any conclusions from anything dealing with reported tornadoes... huge population/reporting bias, obviously.  

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2 minutes ago, bjc0303 said:

Really really, really difficult to speculate or draw any conclusions from anything dealing with reported tornadoes... huge population/reporting bias, obviously.  

It's funny to see similar trends in neighboring states, though, and seeing higher frequency in only one of those two months.  Perhaps March tornadoes have happened to hit more sparsely populated areas in more recent times? :lol:

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PAH is hoping to have a final rating later today for the Perryville tornado.  

They also tweeted a pic of a house near Crossville that was damaged in the 1925 tornado and damaged in this one.

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What was amazing to me was how storm structure improved with each storm further off to the SW. We dropped south at Princeton initially ahead of the GBG cluster that would become the Naplate/Ottawa supercell. When we got east of Bradford, it began to tightened up at low levels and attempt but it was still really low grunge and not much structure above the wall cloud/cloud base. We then continued east to Henry, briefly decided to keep up with this first storm knowing the HRRR took this ENE and made it the dominant storm. We turned north but quickly turned back south and then west again out of Henry when seeing velocity of the second supercell near Bradford again. When coming up on the flat miles east of Bradford we saw a large cone tornado but from a distance. Didn't get any pictures as I was on the phone for nearly 3 mins trying to get a tornado report out and crossing counties etc had to be transferred and also thought it would still be on the ground when we got closer. When we did get closer there was better structure including a nice bowl/cone funnel and clear slot but could never do it again. We stayed with it east back to Henry for a third time and said screw it and dropped south. We crossed the river at Lacon and took 26 south to get ahead of the Keokuk-Peoria supercell. The viewing along the river isn't great but again the structure again was much better with this storm as we could already see a faint base in the distance and a nice rock hard/knuckled updraft and anvil. East on Banta Rd to west of Low Point where we finally came up onto the flat and stopped to view it looking west. Structure continued to improve as the updraft really began to clear itself out with a nice wall cloud developing. Knowing we had some time, we drifted north to probably two miles SSW of Washburn on hwy 89 and had a perfect view for the next 20 mins to watch it improve great, tornadogenesis and the first 5 mins or so of the tornado before continuing north than east. What a day. Hoping to have my videos up later this afternoon.

Here are some pictures just of the Washburn supercell and tornado. The first one is about 20 minutes or so before tornadogenesis 

3.jpg

4.jpg

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1.jpg

2.jpg

 

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More on the amount of damage from the IL/IN EF-3

 

.White/Posey/Gibson tornado

Rating:                 EF-3
Estimated peak wind:    152 mph
Path length /Statute/:  44.6 miles
Path width /Maximum/:   440 yards (peak)
Fatalities:             1
Injuries:               2

Start date:             Feb 28 2017
Start time:             954 PM CST
Start location:         4.2 miles northeast of Carmi Illinois

End date:               Feb 28 2017
End time:               1045 PM CST
End location:           1.3 miles south southeast of Oakland City Indiana

A strong tornado set down northeast of Carmi Illinois and almost
immediately expanded to 400 yards wide. In White county, this tornado
damaged or destroyed 35 structures ranging from homes to farm buildings to
mobile homes. One resident told us that his home, which was severely damaged
in this tornado, was also damaged by the 1925 Tri-State Tornado. By the time
the tornado reached just west of the Wabash River, it was a 1/4 mile wide.
Numerous trees were snapped/uprooted across the county. The tornado passed
into Posey county Indiana around 1005 PM CST. In north Posey county, the
tornado damaged numerous trees, damaged or destroyed some barns, damaged
about a dozen homes, including one house that was shifted off of the foundation.
One person, who was camping, was injured. The tornado crossed Interstate 64
near the 10 mile marker. The tornado crossed into Gibson county around 1016
PM CST. In Gibson county, the tornado damaged or destroyed 106 structures.
Of these, 26 were destroyed, 21 suffered major damage, 26 suffered minor damage,
and 33 had minimal damage. At least one person was injured in Gibson county.
Across Gibson county, the tornado probably averaged 1/8 of a mile wide and
peaked at 1/4 of a mile.

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So PAH is using toppled tombstones as a damage indicator for one of the tornadoes in Kentucky.  They've already upgraded to EF2 and it sounds like they are still checking into it.

I think I remember seeing that a revision/expansion of the EF scale is in the works.  Is that true?

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At this rate we might end up with over 50 confirmed tornadoes from this event. Already over 40 (event total, not just this region)

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This is lol worthy compared to what Thundersnow and others got Tuesday, but here's my lame time lapse anyway.  This is of the previously tor-warned storm on the IL side near Morrison.  

EDIT:  Apparently this put down a wussy EF-0 near Follets, which was a little south of due west in this vid.  Was a little too far away to see anything, and was probably a bit before the beginning of this clip anyway.

 

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2 hours ago, Thundersnow12 said:

What was amazing to me was how storm structure improved with each storm further off to the SW. We dropped south at Princeton initially ahead of the GBG cluster that would become the Naplate/Ottawa supercell. When we got east of Bradford, it began to tightened up at low levels and attempt but it was still really low grunge and not much structure above the wall cloud/cloud base. We then continued east to Henry, briefly decided to keep up with this first storm knowing the HRRR took this ENE and made it the dominant storm. We turned north but quickly turned back south and then west again out of Henry when seeing velocity of the second supercell near Bradford again. When coming up on the flat miles east of Bradford we saw a large cone tornado but from a distance. Didn't get any pictures as I was on the phone for nearly 3 mins trying to get a tornado report out and crossing counties etc had to be transferred and also thought it would still be on the ground when we got closer. When we did get closer there was better structure including a nice bowl/cone funnel and clear slot but could never do it again. We stayed with it east back to Henry for a third time and said screw it and dropped south. We crossed the river at Lacon and took 26 south to get ahead of the Keokuk-Peoria supercell. The viewing along the river isn't great but again the structure again was much better with this storm as we could already see a faint base in the distance and a nice rock hard/knuckled updraft and anvil. East on Banta Rd to west of Low Point where we finally came up onto the flat and stopped to view it looking west. Structure continued to improve as the updraft really began to clear itself out with a nice wall cloud developing. Knowing we had some time, we drifted north to probably two miles SSW of Washburn on hwy 89 and had a perfect view for the next 20 mins to watch it improve great, tornadogenesis and the first 5 mins or so of the tornado before continuing north than east. What a day. Hoping to have my videos up later this afternoon.

Here are some pictures just of the Washburn supercell and tornado. The first one is about 20 minutes or so before tornadogenesis 

3.jpg

4.jpg

5.jpg

7.jpg

6.jpg

8.jpg

1.jpg

2.jpg

 

Very nicely done.  

This is the 2nd year in a row with a nice early season event.  Last year we had March 15th, and this year Feb 28th.  Maybe next year we can get a Valentine's Day chase lol.

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Just now, andyhb said:

Perryville tornado upgraded to EF4, 180 mph. First violent tornado of the year.

I was just about to post that.

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52 minutes ago, Natester said:

I was just about to post that.

I think Andy has the PAH twitter on autorefresh or something as he ninja'd me up the thread.

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Here's the preliminary breakdown that I have for the region.  There were some cwa crossers and state crossers, which are marked below. When factoring in border crossers, the number of individual tornadoes is 40.  Note that the total for Missouri does not include all of the tornadoes in Missouri, but only those in the LSX and PAH cwas.

LMK:  8  (includes one from IND)

ILN:  6

PAH:  6  (includes one from LSX)

LOT:  5  (includes one from ILX)

IND:  5

LSX:  4

DVN:  4  (includes one from ILX)

IWX:  3

ILX:  2

RLX:  1

 

State by state:

IL:  13 (including one from MO);  1 EF4 (from MO), 3 EF3, 1 EF2, 7 EF1, 1 EF0

IN:  9 (including one from IL);  1 EF3 (from IL), 4 EF2, 4 EF1

OH:  7;  4 EF1, 3 EF0

KY:  5;  1 EF2, 4 EF1

MO:  4;  1 EF4, 2 EF1, 1 EF0

MI:  3;  3 EF1

IA:  1;  1 EF0

 

 

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Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Paducah, KY
1144 AM CST Sat Mar 4 2017
...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR February 28, 2017 Perry County Missouri,
southwest Illinois Tornado...

.Perryville Missouri Tornado...

Rating:                 EF-4
Estimated peak wind:    180 mph
Path length /Statute/:  50.4 miles
Path width /Maximum/:   0.6 miles
Fatalities:             1
Injuries:               12

Start date:             February 28 
Start time:             7:55 PM CST
Start location:         4.8 miles WNW of Perryville, Missouri


End date:               February 28
End time:               8:57 PM CST
End location:           1.8 miles SW of Christopher, Illinois

The tornado quickly became violent reaching EF-4 intensity and
leveling 5 homes, as well as other structures, just west of I-55,
about 3.5 miles northwest of Perryville, Missouri. This is in the
Kyle Lane and County Road 806 area. Numerous uninhabited cars 
from a salvage yard were blown into or over I-55. The lone 
fatality occurred when an I-55 southbound vehicle was intercepted 
by the tornado. As the tornado tore east, it caused the area of 
greatest home and property destruction 3 miles north of
Perryville, in the vicinity of U.S. Highway 61 and Moore Drive. 
Three homes were leveled on the west side of U.S. Highway 61 with 
dozens of other homes and structures destroyed. Several of the 
injuries occurred in this area. In addition to the leveled homes 
in Perry County, at least 100 other homes received moderate to 
major damage. As the tornado continued east across Perry County, 
it leveled or nearly leveled 2 additional homes and destroyed 
numerous other homes and structures. The tornado reached its 
greatest width as it approached the Mississippi River where a 
damage swath 0.6 miles wide was measured. The tornado damage path
also exhibited multiple vortex characteristics at this point, 
yielding three distinct convergent areas within the parent vortex.
This was also indicated via ground striations, or disturbance 
marks to bare ground, just west of the Mississippi River. The 
tornado then ripped across the southern tip of Randolph County 
Illinois just south of Rockwood. It then continued its ENE path 
across Jackson County Illinois passing just south of Ava, 
Illinois and immediately south of Vergennes, Illinois. Many 
thousands of large trees were snapped and uprooted, and dozens of 
homes and other structures were damaged or destroyed across 
Jackson and Franklin Counties. The tornado remained very intense 
and wide (at least 1/3 mile) nearly leveling a home as it passed 
between Elkville and Dowell, Illinois and into Franklin County 
with unabating intensity. A house was leveled 1.75 miles south of 
Mulkeytown. Very soon thereafter the tornado began to rapidly 
weaken, before dissipating 1.8 miles southwest of Christopher. The
tornado lasted an astounding 1 hour and 2 minutes and was the 
longest track tornado in the coverage area of NWS Paducah since 
another EF-4 tornado back on April 22, 1981.

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Maybe I missed it, but in case someone didn't post it yet here is the radar frame of the Perrville tornado during the phase in which it was multivortex. You can clear see two very distinct circulations.

XBvdWeK.jpg

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NWS PAH looks to have added all the damage points for the Perryville tornado to DAT. The home below near the end of the track looks to have suffered the worst, as it was completely annihilated and all nearby trees were denuded. The summary notes that debris at that location was also reduced to fine pieces, with only the occasional 2x4. Obviously this home wasn't of perfect construction or it would have been an EF5 point, but it's pretty rare to hear of that kind of damage outside of EF5s.

WXusIt13_1488389960475 (1).jpg

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Here's some crappy images of the Perryville and the Crossville tornado survey results. Hopefully NWS PAH will do an event summary that showcases the survey results better than I did lol.

 

Perryville EF4:

c13a54d0aea5be7ac213333fcfcf579d.jpg

 

 

Crossville EF3

 

4c316c2029f086db5a4e6a711a9fc2a3.jpg

 

 

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32 minutes ago, Sidewinder said:

Really lucked out with that tornado snaking between Ft. Branch and the toyota plant. 

One thing that stands out is the swath of EF2-EF3 damage from near the IL/IN state line to just west of Fort Branch.  That looks like about 20-25 miles in that segment, though the gaps in the damage points (especially south of Owensville) make it unclear if it was actually at that intensity during that entire stretch.

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