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Roger Smith

March 2017 Temperature Forecast Contest

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Predict the temperature anomaly (in F deg) from 1981-2010 normal values for these nine locations:

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

Enter by 06z Wed March 1st, late penalties of 1% per 2h late begin after that (increasing to 1% per hour 18z Thursday March 2nd).

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Well, it's hard to argue with persistence of the extreme warmth, but at the same time there's some very cold air masses at times, still the second half of the month could go very warm again ... I think it will be 2 deg lower than these at mid-month for most of them, then more torchyness. 

+3.8 __ +3.0 __ +2.8 ____ +3.5 __ +4.7 __ +6.9 ____ +5.0 __ +2.5 __ --1.6

 

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DCA: +4.8

NYC: +4.0

BOS: +2.7

ORD: +1.9

ATL: +1.2

IAH: +7.1

DEN: +8.3

PHX: +2.2

SEA: --6.4

 

I hope this isn't what we get, but I have the sneaking suspicion that it will be.

I can only imagine what summer is going to be like. 

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Table of Forecasts for March 2017

 

FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Prestige Worldwide __________+7.5 _ +6.5 _ +3.4 ___ +6.9 _ +7.9 _ +4.6 ___ +5.1 _ +2.5 _ +1.1

Maxim ____________________ +6.5 _ +6.0 _ +5.0 ___ +9.5 _ +6.0 _ +7.5 ___  +3.5 _ +1.0 _ --2.0

Damage in Tolland __ (-5%)___ +5.0 _ +4.4 _ +4.1 ___ +3.9 _ +3.0 _ +3.8 ___ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ --2.0

Neckbeard93 ________________+4.8 _ +4.0 _ +2.7 ___ +1.9 _ +1.2 _ +7.1 ___ +8.3 _ +2.2 _ --6.4

so_whats_happening _________+4.8 _ +3.8 _ +3.2 ___ +7.2 _ +5.6 _ +7.5 ___ +6.6 _ +3.3 _ --2.4

H2OTown__Wx _____________ +4.7 _ +3.9 _ +3.8 ___ +6.3 _ +4.8 _ +5.5 ___ +5.3 _ +2.2 _ --0.8

Rjay ______ (-10%) _________ +4.5 _ +4.5 _ +4.5 ___ +5.0 _ +5.0 _ +5.0 ___ +5.0 _ +3.0 _ +1.0

dmillz25 ___________________ +4.5 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 ___ +3.0 _ +4.0 _ +3.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ --1.5

blazess556 _________________ +4.2 _ +4.7 _ +4.2 ___ +5.1 _ +4.1 _ +2.7 ___ +1.4 _ --0.8 _ --3.2

Stebo _____________________ +4.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.0 ___ +5.0 _ +4.0 _ +2.5 ___ +1.5 _ --0.5 _ --3.0

 

Consensus _________________ +3.9 _ +3.5 _ +2.8 ___ +3.6 _ +3.8 _ +4.0 ___ +1.8 _ +1.5 _ --1.5

 

Roger Smith ________________ +3.8 _ +3.0 _ +2.8 ___ +3.5 _ +4.7 _ +6.9 ___ +5.0 _ +2.5 _ --1.6

BKViking ___________________+3.5 _ +3.2 _ +2.9 ___ +3.7 _ +4.0 _ +2.0 ___ +1.1 _ --0.2 _ --2.2

wxallannj __________________ +3.2 _ +4.0 _ +3.5 ___ +5.9 _ +3.6 _ +4.2 ___ +5.2 _ +2.5 _ --1.4 

hudsonvalley21 _____________ +2.9 _ +2.8 _ +2.3 ___ +3.2 _ +2.7 _ +2.0 ___ +0.8 _ +0.4 _ +0.6

DonSutherland.1 ____________ +2.5 _ +2.2 _ +1.7 ___ +2.6 _ +2.0 _ +1.6 ___ +0.9 _ +1.4 _ --2.2

Tom ______________________ +2.1 _ +1.9 _ +1.7 ___ +1.8 _ +2.1 _ +2.5 ___ +1.3 _ +1.8 _ --0.9

SD ________________________+2.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ____ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ --1.0

RodneyS ___________________ +1.8 _ +1.1 _ --0.5 ___ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +4.2 ___ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ --2.5

wxdude64 ____ (-4%) ________ +0.5 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 ___ --0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +0.5 _ --0.5 _ +2.0

 

Normal ______________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 

 

Consensus is the median value (mean of 10th and 11th ranked) for 20 forecasters. Good luck!  

 

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I had a family issue going on. I wasnt posting much.  I haven't looked at a model in 4-5 days.

Roger please send me a PM if I'm running late!  

DCA +4.5

NYC +4.5

BOS +4.5

ORD +5.0

ATL +5.0

IAH +5.0

DEN +5.0

PHX +3.0

SEA -1.0

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Hello, glad to see you're okay and sorry to hear of any troubles in the background, I sent you a PM and I hope you can live with the relatively small late charge (I shaved off a fraction as I had done earlier with the other two late ones, this is what I usually do, overlook the fractional part and round down not up). 

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<<< --- UPDATE on SNOWFALL CONTEST 2016-17 --->>>

The first table is the current standings showing errors to date. Errors in red  represent forecasts that are at last update lower than actual amounts, and where errors could increase. Errors in black are cases where you haven't reached your predicted value yet and these errors can decrease (until you do reach your target). Your total error is shown in the last column. This table will be updated whenever snow falls. Meanwhile, the second table is the table of forecasts from November.

... between these tables, new feature added March 13, total error based on assumptions of future snowfall this season ... this feature was updated after the actual amounts on 14th.

... UPDATE _ Apr 7 _ 1.2" added at BOS on Apr 1st and 0.1" at DEN on 4th. 

... UPDATE _ Apr 30 _ 2.4" added at DEN on Apr 29th.

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ TOTAL error

 

___ Amount to date _______ 3.4 _ 30.2 _ 47.6 ___ 26.1 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 19.4 __ 0.0 _ 11.2

 

Mercurial ________________13.1" _ 1.8" _ 2.5" __ 24.2" _ 0.0" _ 0.0" ___ 13.4" _ 0.0" _ 2.3" ____57.3

RodneyS ________________ 7.7" _12.1"_22.5" ___ 9.0" _ 0.0" _ 0.0" ____ 7.3" _ 0.0" _ 4.1" ____ 62.7

Maxim__________________ 19.2" _ 9.0" _ 2.5" ___ 3.9" _ 1.5" _ 0.0" ___ 25.9" _ 0.0" _ 2.2" ____ 64.2

hudsonvalley21 ___________16.4" _ 0.7" _ 4.7" __ 20.3" _ 0.4" _ 0.0" ___ 30.2" _ 0.0" _ 0.1____ 65.7

BTRwx __________________9.1" _ 6.2" _ 5.6" __ 18.9" _ 0.3" _ 0.0" ___ 26.2" _ 0.0" _ 0.2" ____66.5

 

Consensus ______________ 14.8" _ 2.9" _ 3.0" __ 15.8" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 28.3" _ 0.0" _ 2.2" ___ 68.0

Normal ______________12.0"_ 4.4"_ 3.8" __ 10.2"_2.9"_0.1" __ 32.0" _0.0"_4.4" ___ 69.8

 

wxallannj _______________ 19.3" _ 1.0" _ 5.6"  ___ 9.9" _ 5.7"__ 0.2" ___ 25.5" _ 0.0" _ 3.4" ____ 70.6

Damage in Tolland _______ 11.6" _ 4.8" _24.4" __ 16.9" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ____ 8.2" _ 0.0" _ 7.2" ___ 74.1

Stebo ___________________14.9" _ 2.4" _ 7.7" __ 22.6" _ 0.8" _ 0.0" ___ 26.4" _ 0.0" _ 1.3" ____ 76.1

BKViking ________________12.6" __9.8" _ 9.4" ___ 6.9" _ 2.0" _ 0.0" ___ 33.4" _ 0.0" _ 2.2" ___ 76.1 

RJay ___________________ 13.6" _ 4.8" _12.4" ___ 8.9" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 38.2" _ 0.0" _ 1.2" ___ 80.1

Midlo Snow Maker ________ 14.6" _ 4.8" _17.4" __ 18.9" _ 3.0" _ 0.0" ___ 26.2" _ 0.1" _ 2.2" ___ 87.2

SD _____________________ 9.6" _ 9.2" _12.6" __ 13.9" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 43.2" _ 2.0" _ 1.2" ____92.7

dmillz25 ________________ 13.6" _ 8.8" _ 5.4" __ 24.9" _ 2.0" _ 0.0" ___ 39.2" _ 0.0" _ 2.2" ___ 96.1

Mallow _________________ 29.6" _12.3" _ 3.5" __ 14.6" _ 1.5" _ 0.0" ___ 33.7" _ 0.0" _10.1"___105.3

wxdude64 _______________16.5" _ 0.6" _ 6.5" __ 30.6" _ 2.7" _ 0.5"___ 55.7" _ 0.0" _ 6.4" ____119.5

DonSutherland.1 _________ 18.1" _ 1.5" _14.3" __ 18.8" _ 1.8" _ 0.0" ___ 57.7"_ 0.0" _ 7.4" ____119.6

Tom ___________________ 18.7" _ 6.6" _17.0" __ 31.8"_ 0.9" _ 0.0" ___ 41.3" _ 0.0" _ 5.8" ____122.1
 

Roger Smith _____________ 32.3"_18.4" _27.5" __ 13.7" _ 2.0" _ 0.1" ___ 26.2" _ 0.0" _ 4.3" ____125.5

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

PROJECTED TOTAL ERRORS for these assumptions of additional snowfall .... assumptions have been revised after reviewing amounts that fell on March 13th--14th. These may be revised again. BOS revised after 1.2" of 9.4 fell on April 1st. DEN revised by 0.1" Assumptions were changed on April 7th. A final change was made on April 30th, namely that the current order will stand because it seems unlikely that DEN will get more than 7.3" (the smallest residual left to be used for any forecaster, RodneyS), and all other stations are now most likely finished for the season. Any snowfall of 7.3 to 13.4 at DEN will drop RodneyS and Damage in Tolland by several ranks. The leader, Mercurial, will only lose ground to other forecasts if more than 13.4" falls at DEN. 

 

Actual forecasts

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

RodneyS ________________11.1" _18.1" _25.1" __ 35.1" _ 0.0" _ 0.0" ___ 29.1" _ 0.0" _ 7.1"

BTRwx _________________ 12.5" _24.0" _42.0" __ 45.0" _ 0.3" _ 0.0" ___ 48.0" _ 0.0" _11.0"

SD _____________________13.0" _21.0" _35.0" __ 40.0" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 65.0" _2.0" _10.0"   

Damage in Tolland ________15.0" _35.0" _72.0" __ 43.0" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 30.0" _ 0.0" _ 4.0"

 

Normal ______________15.4"_25.8"_43.8" __ 36.3"_2.9"_0.1" __ 53.8" _0.0"_6.8"

 

BKViking ________________16.0" _40.0" _ 57.0" __ 33.0" _ 2.0" _ 0.0" ___ 55.0" _ 0.0" _ 9.0"

Mercurial ________________16.5" _28.4" _45.1" __ 50.3" _ 0.0" _ 0.0" ___ 35.2" _ 0.0" _ 8.9"

RJay ___________________ 17.0" _35.0" _60.0" __ 35.0" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 60.0" _ 0.0" _10.0"

dmillz25 ________________ 17.0" _39.0" _53.0" __ 51.0" _ 2.0" _ 0.0" ___ 61.0" _ 0.0" _ 9.0"

Midlo Snow Maker ________ 18.0" _35.0" _65.0" __ 45.0" _ 3.0" _ 0.0" ___ 48.0" _ 0.1" _ 9.0"

 

Consensus ______________ 18.2" _33.1" _50.6" __ 41.9" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 50.1" _ 0.0" _ 9.0"

 

Stebo ___________________18.3" _27.8" _39.9" __ 48.7" _ 0.8" _ 0.0" ___ 48.2" _ 0.0" _12.5"

hudsonvalley21 ___________19.8" _30.9" _42.9" __ 39.3" _ 0.4" _ 0.0" ___ 52.0" _ 0.0" _11.1"

wxdude64 _______________19.9" _30.8" _41.1" __ 56.7" _ 2.7" _ 0.5"___ 77.5" _ 0.0" _ 4.8"

DonSutherland.1 _________ 21.5" _31.7" _61.9" __ 44.9" _ 1.8" _ 0.0" ___ 79.5"_ 0.0" _ 3.8"

Tom ___________________ 22.1" _36.8" _64.6" __ 57.9"_ 0.9" _ 0.0" ___ 63.1" _ 0.0" _ 5.4"

Maxim__________________ 22.6" _39.2" _50.1" __ 30.0" _ 1.5" _ 0.0" ___ 47.7" _ 0.0" _13.4"

wxallannj _______________ 22.7" _31.2" _42.0" __ 36.0" _ 5.7"_ 0.2" ___ 47.3" _ 0.0" _ 7.8"

Mallow _________________ 33.0" _42.5" _51.1" __ 40.7" _ 1.5" _ 0.0" ___ 55.5" _ 0.0" _ 1.1"

Roger Smith _____________ 35.7"_49.0"_75.5"__ 40.0" _ 2.0" _ 0.1" ___ 48.0" _ 0.0"_15.5"

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Any updates on the snowfall contest will be found in the previous post tracking the contest standings. The countdown to final anomalies -- fasten your seatbelts, turbulence ahead.

 

____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_______ (7d) _______ +3.6 _ +0.6 _ --2.3 ___ +8.6 _ +5.8 _ +5.1 ____ +4.8 __ 0.0 _ --3.3

______ (10d) _______ +5.5 _ +2.6 __ 0.0 ___ +6.6 _ +6.0 _ +6.2 ____ +6.0 _ +1.8 _ --2.9

______ (14d) _______ +0.9 _ --2.6 _ --4.1 ___ +1.7 _ +1.0 _ +3.8 ____ +5.5 _ +4.4 _ --1.1

______ (15d) _______ --0.4 _ --3.7 _ --4.8 ___ +0.7 _ --0.3 _ +3.1 ____ +6.3 _ +5.0 _ --0.9

______ (19d) _______ --1.4 _ --4.2 _ --5.2 ___ +0.5 _ --0.8 _ +3.7 ____ +8.9 _ +6.7 _ --1.2

______ (22d) _______ --1.1 _ --3.8 _ --4.4 ___ +0.5 _ +0.5 _ +4.6 ____ +9.5 _ +7.4 _ --0.8

______ (24d) _______ --1.4 _ --3.9 _ --5.0e___ +1.3 _ +0.9 _ +5.0 ____+9.4e_ +6.6 _ --0.6

______ (25d) _______ --0.7 _ --3.5 _ --4.5 ___ +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +5.0 ____ +9.0 _ +6.4 _ --0.6

______ (26d) _______ --0.6 _ --3.6 _ --4.5e___ +1.8 _ +1.6e_ +5.2____ +8.8 _ +6.2 _ --0.6

______ (27d) _______ --0.2 _ --3.5 _ --4.4 ___ +1.9 _ +2.0 _ +5.5____ +8.6 _ +6.1 _ --0.6

______ (28d) _______ +0.3 _ --3.4 _ --4.3e___ +1.9 _ +2.4 _ +5.6____ +8.2 _ +5.9 _ --0.6

______ (29d) _______ +0.6 _ --3.2 _ --4.3e___ +1.8 _ +2.8 _ +5.6____ +7.9 _ +5.8 _ --0.5

______ (30d) _______ +0.6 _ --3.1 _ --4.1e___ +1.8 _ +3.2 _ +5.5____ +7.9 _ +5.8 _ --0.4

______ (31d) _______ +0.4_ --3.3 _--4.3 ___+1.6 _+3.4 _ +5.5 ____ +7.5_+5.5_--0.5

Comments:

8th _ (It may be another GFS figment but it certainly looks cold in the east and central regions mid-month to 24th ... I have gone rather conservative in case this is rolled back into the warehouse closer to the time).

11th _ I knew I could get it to turn cold by finally predicting warm. :)

(15th) _ The cold regime looks like it wants to fade out in the east in last ten days and this usually means a huge torch in actual fact, so I went perhaps a bit warmer than strict map guidance alone. Even so, the projected outcomes are lower than almost all forecasts until we reach the west, then rather warm. 

(16th) _ Updated again to be more confident of values for preliminary scoring tables. My assumptions for 23rd to 31st are generally on the warm side of options but would still leave outcomes below most forecasts. 

(20th) _ Trying to find some points for the very warm group, have bumped up some of the projections slightly. But NYC and BOS are running generally below the field, extreme forecasts likely there and also for DEN and PHX. We were on to IAH enough to make an extreme forecast less likely there.

(23rd) _ Some minor changes to end of month projections will generally drop most scores a little although helping at SEA for most. 

(25th) _ Changes made to ORD and NYC both down 0.5, still looking at a warming trend but the numbers fell short of the previous estimates there. BOS will have to skate hard to get to -2.0 but as that's below all forecasts anyway, will ride that to the finish line and adjust as required. 

(26th) _ Changes made to ORD, NYC, BOS and PHX will generally take away 40 points from the field except for a few brave souls who went cold at ORD, they will gain by losing only 20 (this is for those who are not already at zero points now) as all the others were already outside the range of forecasts. 

(27th) _ Basically a trade in points between DCA (down) and ATL (up) for most today. BOS may have trouble making even my grim estimate. 

(28th) _ Warm sector avoidance pushes NYC and BOS further down into no man's land. 

(30th) _ More erosion of pointage, where did we (almost) all go wrong? 

(April 1st _ 14z _ Final anomalies are posted above, scoring will soon be final). 

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Final scoring for March 2017

Scores adjusted to minimum progression (NYC, BOS)

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS___east___ORD_ATL_IAH___cent_____ TOTAL

 

RodneyS ___________________72 _ 36 _ 40 ___148 ___ 96_ 70 _ 79 ___ 245 _____ 393

Tom ______________________ 66 _ 31 _ 24 ___ 121 ___ 96 _ 74 _ 45 ___ 215 _____ 336

SD ________________________68 _ 37 _ 29 ___ 134 ___ 88 _ 72 _ 25 ___ 185 _____ 319

DonSutherland.1 ____________ 58 _ 29 _ 24 ___ 111 ___ 80 _ 72 _ 27 ___ 179 _____ 290

 

Consensus _________________ 30 _ 20 _ 16 ___ 066 ___ 60 _ 92 _ 75 ___ 227 _____ 293

 

wxdude64 _________________ 98 _ 40 _ 33 ___ 171 ___ 58 _ 52 _ 15 ___ 125 _ 296

___________ (-4%) _________ 94 38_ 32 ___164___ 56 _ 50 _ 14 ___ 120 _____ 284

hudsonvalley21 _____________ 50 _ 25 _ 20 ___ 095 ___ 68 _ 86 _ 35 ___ 189 _____ 284

Roger Smith ________________32 _ 23 _ 16 ___ 071 ___ 62 _ 74 _ 77 ___ 213 _____ 284

dmillz25 ___________________ 18 _ 23 _ 18 ___ 059 ___ 72 _ 88 _ 55 ___ 215 _____ 274

 

Normal ____________________92 _ 43 _ 36 ___ 171 ___ 68 _ 32 _ 00 ___ 100 _____ 271 

 

Neckbeard93 _______________ 12 _ 17 _ 17 ___ 046 ___ 94 _ 56 _ 73 ___ 223 _____ 269

wxallannj __________________ 44 _ 17 _ 11 ___ 072 ___ 14 _ 96 _ 79 ___ 189 _____ 261

BKViking ___________________38 _ 22 _ 15 ___ 075 ___ 58 _ 88 _ 35 ___ 181 _____ 256

Damage in Tolland ___________08 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 029 ___ 54 _ 92 _ 71 ___ 217 _ 246

_________ (-5%) ____________08 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 028 ___ 51 _ 87 _ 67 ___ 205 _____ 233 

H2OTown__Wx _____________ 14 _ 17 _ 09 ___ 040 ___ 06 _ 72 _100 ___178 _____ 218

Stebo _____________________ 28 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 048 ___ 32 _ 88 _ 45 ___ 165 _____ 213

Rjay ______________________ 18 _ 13 _ 04 ___ 035 ___ 32 _ 68 _ 95 ___ 195 _ 230

_________ (-10%) __________ 16 _ 12 _ 04 ___ 032 ___ 29 _ 61 _ 86 ___ 176 _____ 208

blazess556 _________________ 24 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 042 ___ 30 _ 86 _ 49 ___ 165 _____ 207

so_whats_happening _________12 _ 18 _ 13 ___ 043 ___ 00 _ 56 _ 65 ___ 121 _____ 164

Maxim _____________________00 _ 03 _ 00 ___ 003 ___ 00 _ 48 _ 65 ___ 113 _____ 116

Prestige Worldwide __________ 00 _ 00 _ 12 ___ 012 ___ 00 _ 10 _ 87 ___ 097 _____ 109

 

 

Final scores for western and for all nine contests March 2017

 

FORECASTER _____________  DEN_PHX_SEA _______ TOTAL _________ All nine (= rank)

 

so_whats_happening _________91 _ 61 _ 62 _________214 ___________ 378 (=11)

H2OTown__Wx _____________ 78 _ 39 _ 94 _________ 211 ___________ 429 (= 5)

wxallannj __________________ 77 _ 45 _ 82 _________ 204 ___________ 465 (= 4)

Roger Smith ________________75 _ 45 _ 78 _________ 198 ___________ 482 (= 2)

Prestige Worldwide __________ 76 _ 45 _ 68 _________ 189 ___________ 286 (=16)

Rjay ______________________ 75 _ 55 _ 70 __ 200

__________ (-10%) _________ 68 _ 50 _ 63 _________ 181 ___________ 389 (= 9)

Tom ______________________13 _ 31 _ 92 _________ 136 ____________ 472 (= 3)

Neckbeard93 _______________92 _ 39 _ 00 _________ 131 ____________400 (= 7)

Maxim ____________________ 45 _ 15 _ 70 _________ 130 ____________ 243 (=19)

RodneyS __________________ 20 _ 45 _ 60 _________ 125 ____________ 518 (= 1)

dmillz25 ___________________20 _ 25 _ 80 _________ 125 ____________ 399 (= 8)

 

Consensus _________________ 18 _ 25 _ 80 _________ 123 ____________ 416 (= 7)

 

SD ________________________00 _ 15 _ 90_________ 105 ____________ 424 (= 6)

Damage in Tolland __________ 15 _ 25 _ 70 __ 110

______________ (-5%) ______ 14 _ 24 _ 67 _________ 105 ____________ 338 (=13)

DonSutherland.1 ____________ 09 _ 23 _ 66 _________ 098 ____________ 388 (=10)

hudsonvalley21 _____________ 08 _ 04 _ 78 _________ 090 ____________ 374 (=12)

 

Normal ____________________ 00 _ 00 _ 90  _________ 090 ____________ 361 (=13)

 

BKViking ___________________11 _ 00 _ 66 _________ 077 ____________ 333 (=15)

Stebo _____________________ 15 _ 00 _ 50 _________ 065 ____________ 278 (=17)

blazess556 _________________ 14 _ 00 _ 46 _________ 060 ____________ 267 (=18)

wxdude64 __________________05 _ 00 _ 50 __ 055

____________ (-4%) _________05 _ 00 _ 48 _________ 053 ____________ 337 (=14)

______________________________________________________________________________

 

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EXTREME FORECAST REPORT

(This will be edited later to include standings through January to March)

 

DCA finished at +0.4 and is a win for wxdude64 (+0.5) score minus 4.

NYC finished at -3.3, a win for low forecast wxdude64 at +0.5 with Normal also scoring a win.

BOS (-4.3) is a win for RodneyS at -0.5.

ORD finished at +1.6 and missed qualifying by 0.3, 3rd lowest forecasts are tied for high score.

ATL (+3.4) is not in play, 9th highest forecast is high score.

IAH (+5.5), currently 5th highest forecast is high score.

DEN finished at +7.5) which is a win for Neckbeard93 (+8.3) scores 1 higher than second place +6.6 from so_whats_happening.

PHX (+5.5) is a win for so_whats_happening at +3.3.

SEA (-0.5) was not in contention.

_____________________________________

This makes five extreme forecasts in March, a total of 20 out of 27 for the year so far.

UPDATED TABLE OF EXTREME FORECASTS (wins and losses)

DonSutherland1 ____ 5-1

RJay _____________ 4-0

Prestige Worldwide __3-0

Maxim ____________ 2-0

Wxdude64 _________ 2-0

Dmillz25 ___________1-0

Wxallannj __________1-0

Roger Smith _______ 1-0

RodneyS __________ 1-0

Neckbeard93 _______ 1-0

so_whats_happening _1-0

Normal ____________1-0

Stebo _____________0-1

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<<< ---=--- 2017 Annual Scoring Summary (Jan-Mar) ---=--- >>>

... ... ... ... ... ... ... (see post 26 for March scoring) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Best scores: The first six numbers refer to the six locations, the last two refer to eastern and central division totals. Months won (in this part of the contest) are shown by name after the number codes. Example, RodneyS had best scores for BOS, ORD (in March) and also for the central total (in March), and was high score for March. There are sometimes ties so the totals may add up higher than the number of months. Meanwhile, best total scores Jan-Mar are highlighted in red in the table for six locations, and in bold italic for two groups and for all six.

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east___ORD_ATL_IAH__cent___TOTAL__Best scores

 

 1 RJay _______________120 _139_126__385 ___113 _154 _151 __418 ___803 __ 111.100..1..1 _ Feb

 2 DonSutherland.1 _____131 _102 _ 92 __325___154 _156 _129__439 ___ 764 __ 001.111..1..1 _ Jan 

 3 blazess556 __________112 _123 _124 __359 ___100 _137 _107 __344 ___ 703 __ 001.000

 4 Prestige Worldwide____111 _107_123 __ 341 ___ 25 _140 _118 __283 ___ 624 __ 110.010 

 5 BKViking ____________100 _ 99 _109 __308 ___ 84 _ 138 _ 67 __289 ___ 597 

 6 Maxim _______________80 _ 85 _ 78 __243 ___ 50 _150 _142 __342 ___ 585 __ 100.001

 7 hudsonvalley21 _______ 82 _ 29 _ 45 __156 ___ 94 _ 121 _ 73 __288 ___ 584

 

 8 Consensus ___________ 86 _ 72 _ 75 __233 ___ 90 _143 _117 __350 ___ 583

 

 8 dmillz25 _____________ 72 _ 75 _ 74 __221 ___122 _138 _ 90 __350 ___ 571 __ 000.100

 9 wxallannj ____________ 92 _ 78 _ 76 __246 ___ 41 _153 _110 __304 ___ 550 __ 000.010

10 SD _________________114 _ 77 _ 75 __266___124 _101 _ 50 __ 275 ___ 541

11 Stebo _______________ 86 _ 67 _ 62 __215 ___ 60 _148 _ 88 __296 ___ 511

12 RodneyS _____________76 _ 36 _ 40 __152 ___125 _ 97 _129 __351 ___ 503 __ 011.100..0..1 _ Mar 

13 wxdude64 __________ 131 _ 56 _ 67 __254 ___ 86 _ 99 _ 56 __241 ___ 495 __ 110.000..1.0

14 Tom ________________ 99 _ 59 _ 53 __211 ___108 _ 98 _ 71 __277 ___ 488 __ 000.100

15 Damage in Tolland ____ 50 _ 55 _ 42 __147 ___ 74 _125 _112 __311 ___ 458 

16 H2Otown_WX ________ 67 _ 61 _ 59 __187 ___ 20 _124 _100 __244 ___ 431 ___ 000.001

17 Roger Smith __________46 _ 35 _ 16 __097 ___ 62 _102 _137 __301 ___ 398

16 Neckbeard93*_________17 _ 27 _ 49 __093 ___ 94 _ 81 _118 __293 ___ 386

19 so_whats_happening __ 65 _ 45 _ 38 __148 ___ 28 _100 _103 __231 ___ 379

 

20 Normal ____________108 _ 65 _ 56 __229 ___ 99 _ 32 _ 00 __ 131 ___ 360 ___ 010.000

__________________________________________________________________________________

 

Updated annual scoring for western and all nine contests Jan-Feb 2017

 

FORECASTER _________DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL___Best scores___All nine ( = rank )__Months 

 

 1 Rjay _______________172 _232 _239___ 643 __ 0 0 0 _ Jan _____1446 ( = 1) ___ FEB

 2 Roger Smith _________193 _153 _264 ___ 610 __ 0 0 1 _ Feb _____1008 ( = 10)

 3 wxallannj ___________150 _241 _200 ___ 591 __ 0 1 1 __________1141 ( = 5)  

 4 so_whats_happening __177_197 _200 ___ 574 __ 0 1 0 __ Mar ____ 953 ( = 15)

 5 Prestige Worldwide ___ 159 _223 _170 ___ 552 __ 0 1 0 _________ 1176 ( = 3)

 6 H20TownWx _________169 _167 _214 ___ 550 __ 0 0 1 __________ 981 ( = 12)

 7  DonSutherland.1 _____ 171 _183 _188 ___ 542 __ 2 0 0 __________1306 ( = 2) ___ JAN 

 8 Tom _________________71 _201 _244 ___ 516 _________________ 1004  ( = 11)

 

t8 Consensus ___________113 _187 _216 ____ 516 ________________ 1099 ( = 6)

 

 9 dmillz25 _____________114 _153 _246 ____ 513 ________________ 1084 (= 6)

10 Damage in Tolland ____ 98 _200 _183 ____ 481 _________________ 939 ( = 17)

 

11 Maxim _____________ 161 _133 _176 ____470 _________________ 1055 ( = 8)

12 RodneyS ____________112 _187 _168 ____ 467 _________________ 970 ( =13) ___  MAR

13 BKViking ____________ 77 _148 _234 ____ 459 _________________1056 ( = 7)

14 Stebo _______________85 _152 _218 ____ 455 _________________ 966 ( =14) 

15 blazess556 __________112^_173^_166___ 451 ________________ 1154 ( = 4)

16 hudsonvalley21 ______ 113 _150 _182 ____ 445 ________________ 1029 ( = 9)

17 wxdude64 ___________ 89 _160 _176 ____ 425 _________________ 920 ( = 18)

18 SD _________________ 96 _145 _166 ____ 407 _________________ 948 ( = 16)

 

19 Normal ______________ 86 _130 _166 ____ 382 _________________ 742 ( = 20)

 

19 Neckbeard93* _______ 134 _123 _ 18 ____ 275 __ 1 0 0 __________ 661 (= 19)

_______________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

* one month missed (Jan)

^ one point deducted on these scores for Blazess556 (late in Jan) total of 2, (0,2)

 ... March late penalty deductions can be seen in March scoring.

... Rjay lost 41 (22,19), Damage lost 18 (13,5) and wxdude64 lost 14 (12,2). 

__ ranks for Consensus and Normal do not affect ranks of lower scoring forecasters.

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I have been thinking about this problem with many (almost all) forecasters scoring zero despite large differences in their forecasts.

This is due to a flaw in my approximation of the correlation scoring method. It works fine on the same side of zero (your forecast and the actual anomaly) and expands to fit larger anomalies, but when we run into this situation of all the forecasts being wrong sign and way off, then a 5 degree error gets the same score (zero) as a 10 degree error.

I will work on a refined scoring technique and adjust the scores in the spirit of fair competition, it's not really a change in my method so much as a response to an unforeseen issue (this basically didn't happen in 2014-16, we adjusted alright to very large anomalies by expanding the scoring "net" but this recent streak of missing the right sign is new and gives us an unreliable outcome.

I think the best solution will be to score all months the usual way then boost the scores when the highest score is under 50, and when two thirds of the field or more score zero. Where that happens, the maximum score will be set as follows: where 35 or less, it will go to 40, and where 36 to 49, it will go to 50. If anyone scores higher than 50 (other than Normal), then no adjustments will be made. So you can more or less skunk the field but you have to score 51 or higher.

After some consultations, I have decided to make this the official scoring method. The changes in the annual scoring will be seen in the final (edited) post in this thread. They are mostly minor in terms of change of ranking, and give the field a boost of 20-30 points overall. But this method will separate out the weak from the very weak forecasts in these odd cases.

 

Alternate scoring for March 2017

DCA, ORD, ATL, IAH scored normally; NYC and BOS scored by "max 40."

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS___east___ORD_ATL_IAH___cent_____ TOTAL __ rank change

 

RodneyS ___________________72 _ 36 _ 40 ___148 ___ 96_ 70 _ 79 ___ 245 _____ 393

Tom ______________________ 66 _ 31 _ 24 ___ 121 ___ 96 _ 74 _ 45 ___ 215 _____ 336

SD ________________________68 _ 37 _ 29 ___ 134 ___ 88 _ 72 _ 25 ___ 185 _____ 319

DonSutherland.1 ____________ 58 _ 29 _ 24 ___ 111 ___ 80 _ 72 _ 27 ___ 179 _____ 290

 

Consensus _________________ 30 _ 20 _ 16 ___ 066 ___ 60 _ 92 _ 75 ___ 227 _____ 293

 

wxdude64 _________________ 98 _ 40 _ 33 ___ 171 ___ 58 _ 52 _ 15 ___ 125 _ 296

___________ (-4%) _________ 94 _ 38_ 32 ___164___ 56 _ 50 _ 14 ___ 120 _____ 284

hudsonvalley21 _____________ 50 _ 25 _ 20 ___ 095 ___ 68 _ 86 _ 35 ___ 189 _____ 284

Roger Smith ________________32 _ 23 _ 16 ___ 071 ___ 62 _ 74 _ 77 ___ 213 _____ 284

dmillz25 ___________________ 18 _ 23 _ 18 ___ 059 ___ 72 _ 88 _ 55 ___ 215 _____ 274

 

Normal ____________________92 _ 43 _ 36 ___171 ___ 68 _ 32 _ 00 ___ 100 _____ 271 

 

Neckbeard93 _______________ 12 _ 17 _ 17 ___ 046 ___ 94 _ 56 _ 73 ___ 223 _____ 269

wxallannj __________________ 44 _ 17 _ 11 ___ 072 ___ 14 _ 96 _ 79 ___ 189 _____ 261

BKViking ___________________38 _ 22 _ 15 ___ 075 ___ 58 _ 88 _ 35 ___ 181 _____ 256

Damage in Tolland ___________08 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 029 ___ 54 _ 92 _ 71 ___ 217 _ 246

_________ (-5%) ____________08 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 028 ___ 51 _ 87 _ 67 ___ 205 _____ 233 

H2OTown__Wx _____________ 14 _ 17 _ 09 ___ 040 ___ 06 _ 72 _100 ___178 _____ 218

Stebo _____________________ 28 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 048 ___ 32 _ 88 _ 45 ___ 165 _____ 213

Rjay ______________________ 18 _ 13 _ 04 ___ 035 ___ 32 _ 68 _ 95 ___ 195 _ 230

_________ (-10%) __________ 16 _ 12 _ 04 ___ 032 ___ 29 _ 61 _ 86 ___ 176 _____ 208

blazess556 _________________ 24 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 042 ___ 30 _ 86 _ 49 ___ 165 _____ 207

so_whats_happening _________12 _ 18 _ 13 ___ 043 ___ 00 _ 56 _ 65 ___ 121 _____ 164

Maxim _____________________00 _ 03 _ 00 ___ 003 ___ 00 _ 48 _ 65 ___ 113 _____ 116

Prestige Worldwide __________ 00 _ 00 _ 12 ___ 012 ___ 00 _ 10 _ 87 ___ 097 _____ 109

________________________________________________________________________________

(no changes were required to the western scoring, and the all nine would remain in almost exactly the same order).

 

 

 

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