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Model Mayhem V


Typhoon Tip

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It has another warning criteria system Saturday night and Sunday morning. Very wintry period on this run. 

Saturday night and Sunday not quite as good as 06z run was but I'm sure most of SNE would disagree lol.

Clipper tickling north so we have that going for us.

Couple threats though over the next week.

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Lol just 24 hrs ago GFS was a complete furnace for the whole run..now it's showing winter weather.   What's next at 18z?

 

I wouldn't doubt if the 12z Euro will show 70s when it comes out in 90 minutes now.  My God what run to run swings...I wouldn't feel even a LIL confident about anything out more than 4days at this point.

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol just 24 hrs ago GFS was a complete furnace for the whole run..now it's showing winter weather.   What's next at 18z?

 

I wouldn't doubt if the 12z Euro will show 70s when it comes out in 90 minutes now.  My God what run to run swings...I wouldn't feel even a LIL confident about anything out more than 4days at this point.

GFS was first to show this

Then lost it and now shows it again

LOL

The blocking is going to play games with the models

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

So many solutions. Canadian is different with each one. That's what happens with fast flow s/w's.

Tippy could have some nice prose about that 10 day evolution.

Joke of the GGEM aside, there does seem to be some thread the needle potential over the next two weeks once we get through the middle of this week. 

 

cmc_snow_acc_neng_41.png

 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We toss.

Oh most definitely. 

Just one of those lease excuse imaginable to screw snow lovers...north, whiff, north, whiff, etc.

Wouldn't surprise me to see that somewhere but probably up here ;).  Southern Quebec and then coastal SNE with a doughnut hole in the middle.

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

As we have been saying wait until Wednesday when the effects of the major wave break are known, until then chaos on a dartboard. 

Great post.

This is why I have't even chimed in much yet.....its akin to throwing darts right now.

 

I feel strongly that the mid atl and sne will see a good several inches in the aggregate, though.

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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

As we have been saying wait until Wednesday when the effects of the major wave break are known, until then chaos on a dartboard. 

Well that's more for the extended. We won't have to wait that long for Friday and perhaps Saturday or Sunday. 

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15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Oh most definitely. 

Just one of those lease excuse imaginable to screw snow lovers...north, whiff, north, whiff, etc.

Wouldn't surprise me to see that somewhere but probably up here ;).  Southern Quebec and then coastal SNE with a doughnut hole in the middle.

You'll get yours. You still have April too. :lol:  

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17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Ha... yeah it's been a terrible winter up there..... lol.

Seems like they have hit on just about every opportunity up to this point.... synoptic... upslope... etc

Ask everyone else up here (eyewall, mreaves, even jspin) their opinion on this winter, see what you get ;).

 

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24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You'll get yours. You still have April too. :lol:  

Oh I'm not worried, I had my fun on the mountain.  It always has a secondary peak here too.  There'll be a round of winter coming.

Wasn't in the towns but 105" in 22 days at the mountain/office did satiate me for the season.

Then there's the Euro that says what Clipper on Friday? 

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Oh I'm not worried, I had my fun on the mountain.  It always has a secondary peak here too.  There'll be a round of winter coming.

Wasn't in the towns but 105" in 22 days at the mountain/office did satiate me for the season.

Then there's the Euro that says what Clipper on Friday? 

The euro says what storms at all. Cold and dry.

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