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February 9th Coastal Storm Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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Models have come into pretty good agreement on a follow up wave impacting the region later this week.  Details still to be ironed out but at a Day 3 lead the signal is strong.  We have global indices favorable.  As you see in the images there is a nice PNA spike and the AO is negative around the time of the storm.  I would bot be surprised to see this come a bit closer to the coast with the PNA spiking like it is.  Also enclosed are the EPS and GEFS from 00z and 06z.  Nice solid >0.5" for most of SNE on the mean.

pna.sprd2.gif

nao.sprd2.gif

ao.sprd2.gif

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_4.png

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_14.png

gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_12.png

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Yeah... I doubted this thing a couple days ago when it was first suggested by some random run... 

Folks were a bit, shall we say, too eagerly appeased by the presence in the guidance and being clingy to the idea (shocker, I know..)  At the time I mentioned there were synoptic limitations.  Namely, the moisture/thermodynamics were being depleted by the tomorrow's system - as it's baroclinic escape would surely leave a dearth of said important factor.  

But, we notice that this deal for tomorrow has continued to weakened in the guidance.  Along with ... its ability to cleanse the atmosphere.  This shows up really well in the Euro's pressure pattern post Tuesday's event on its 00z run..  It's barely got a single isobar subtended down the coast now; which changes the landscape a little... Weaker pressure pattern and implied weak backside CAA and it looks as though the actual evac of said dynamics may not be as proficient as it did in the runs a couple days ago. 

I'm just saying it's not hurting the case for more development...  

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Folks were saying the CMC sucks back when it was the only model hitting the colder solution/commitment to the coast a couple weeks ago - it verified that way, too. Which means that model took the trophy on that deal.  Just sayn'

Understanding what models are good in particular patterns is helpful too.  CMC is tossed in this instance since the GEFS and EPS are in general agreement.  

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6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Understanding what models are good in particular patterns is helpful too.  CMC is tossed in this instance since the GEFS and EPS are in general agreement.  

Yeah I don't have a problem with doing that - per se ...the tossing.. 

It's pretty normal in operational efforts to sans products that unreasonably buck trends - and you're right .. it could certainly be something endemic to the pattern that the GGEM is not very proficient at picking up on..

But, I don't think the GGEM sucks antic is very fair if/when we embrace it so recently when it shows something we want, and just so happens to not show something that is wanted now?  That was specifically that that I was hitting at. 

Having said that, the GGEM does in fact suck - hahaha.  But, I mean that based upon years of tragedy ... oy vay

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I don't have a problem with doing that - per se ...the tossing.. 

It's pretty normal in operational efforts to sans products that unreasonably buck trends - and you're right .. it could certainly be something endemic to the pattern that the GGEM is not very proficient at picking up on..

But, I don't think the GGEM sucks antic is very fair if/when we embrace it so recently when it shows something we want, and just so happens to not show something that is wanted now?  That was specifically that that I was hitting at. 

Having said that, the GGEM does in fact suck - hahaha.  But, I mean that based upon years of tragedy ... oy vay

Yes, some do latch on to the snowier guidance at the time but most reasonable folk either dont look at the cmc or just take it with a grain of salt with whatever solution it's spitting. I glance at it from time to time for comparisons sake but as I said on Saturday, the texas pandhandle will have a large case of blue balls after a 36" cmc snow solution turns to 2" the following run...and thats exactly what happenned. People like PF will agree that some winters you need the national guard with plows on standbye for its solutions. It had this tendacy to give it all or give nothing. 

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18 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Using past climo and analogs and GEFS as support. It's a nice looking setup 

 

18 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The ENS always follow the op. This is going to be a regionwide SNE hit.. and probably up into CNE.. SE ridge flex and baroclinic zone near shore . Invest in this one .

Gotta know when to hold.. when to fold

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I don't have a problem with doing that - per se ...the tossing.. 

It's pretty normal in operational efforts to sans products that unreasonably buck trends - and you're right .. it could certainly be something endemic to the pattern that the GGEM is not very proficient at picking up on..

But, I don't think the GGEM sucks antic is very fair if/when we embrace it so recently when it shows something we want, and just so happens to not show something that is wanted now?  That was specifically that that I was hitting at. 

Having said that, the GGEM does in fact suck - hahaha.  But, I mean that based upon years of tragedy ... oy vay

I never embraced the GGEM. It sucks regardless, as you say.

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