• Member Statistics

    16,739
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    DirectSEO
    Newest Member
    DirectSEO
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Baroclinic Zone

February 9th Coastal Storm Discussion

Recommended Posts

Models have come into pretty good agreement on a follow up wave impacting the region later this week.  Details still to be ironed out but at a Day 3 lead the signal is strong.  We have global indices favorable.  As you see in the images there is a nice PNA spike and the AO is negative around the time of the storm.  I would bot be surprised to see this come a bit closer to the coast with the PNA spiking like it is.  Also enclosed are the EPS and GEFS from 00z and 06z.  Nice solid >0.5" for most of SNE on the mean.

pna.sprd2.gif

nao.sprd2.gif

ao.sprd2.gif

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_4.png

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_14.png

gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_12.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Folks were saying the CMC sucks back when it was the only model hitting the colder solution/commitment to the coast a couple weeks ago - it verified that way, too. Which means that model took the trophy on that deal.  Just sayn'

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

It's funny that franken-model GONAPS carries a potent frontogenic signal and deeper impact implied even than the 00z oper. GFS on this thing.  And it's got half the CMC genetics... 

interesting...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

It's funny that franken-model GONAPS carries a potent frontogenic signal and deeper impact implied even than the 00z oper. GFS on this thing.  And it's got half the CMC genetics... 

interesting...

I see what you did there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah... I doubted this thing a couple days ago when it was first suggested by some random run... 

Folks were a bit, shall we say, too eagerly appeased by the presence in the guidance and being clingy to the idea (shocker, I know..)  At the time I mentioned there were synoptic limitations.  Namely, the moisture/thermodynamics were being depleted by the tomorrow's system - as it's baroclinic escape would surely leave a dearth of said important factor.  

But, we notice that this deal for tomorrow has continued to weakened in the guidance.  Along with ... its ability to cleanse the atmosphere.  This shows up really well in the Euro's pressure pattern post Tuesday's event on its 00z run..  It's barely got a single isobar subtended down the coast now; which changes the landscape a little... Weaker pressure pattern and implied weak backside CAA and it looks as though the actual evac of said dynamics may not be as proficient as it did in the runs a couple days ago. 

I'm just saying it's not hurting the case for more development...  

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Folks were saying the CMC sucks back when it was the only model hitting the colder solution/commitment to the coast a couple weeks ago - it verified that way, too. Which means that model took the trophy on that deal.  Just sayn'

Understanding what models are good in particular patterns is helpful too.  CMC is tossed in this instance since the GEFS and EPS are in general agreement.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Understanding what models are good in particular patterns is helpful too.  CMC is tossed in this instance since the GEFS and EPS are in general agreement.  

Yeah I don't have a problem with doing that - per se ...the tossing.. 

It's pretty normal in operational efforts to sans products that unreasonably buck trends - and you're right .. it could certainly be something endemic to the pattern that the GGEM is not very proficient at picking up on..

But, I don't think the GGEM sucks antic is very fair if/when we embrace it so recently when it shows something we want, and just so happens to not show something that is wanted now?  That was specifically that that I was hitting at. 

Having said that, the GGEM does in fact suck - hahaha.  But, I mean that based upon years of tragedy ... oy vay

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I don't have a problem with doing that - per se ...the tossing.. 

It's pretty normal in operational efforts to sans products that unreasonably buck trends - and you're right .. it could certainly be something endemic to the pattern that the GGEM is not very proficient at picking up on..

But, I don't think the GGEM sucks antic is very fair if/when we embrace it so recently when it shows something we want, and just so happens to not show something that is wanted now?  That was specifically that that I was hitting at. 

Having said that, the GGEM does in fact suck - hahaha.  But, I mean that based upon years of tragedy ... oy vay

Yes, some do latch on to the snowier guidance at the time but most reasonable folk either dont look at the cmc or just take it with a grain of salt with whatever solution it's spitting. I glance at it from time to time for comparisons sake but as I said on Saturday, the texas pandhandle will have a large case of blue balls after a 36" cmc snow solution turns to 2" the following run...and thats exactly what happenned. People like PF will agree that some winters you need the national guard with plows on standbye for its solutions. It had this tendacy to give it all or give nothing. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, weathafella said:

First out of the chute are srefs which may be worse than useless but nevertheless showing a solid hit.

First out of the chute this morning was your enchilada with a 6 number

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Using past climo and analogs and GEFS as support. It's a nice looking setup 

 

18 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The ENS always follow the op. This is going to be a regionwide SNE hit.. and probably up into CNE.. SE ridge flex and baroclinic zone near shore . Invest in this one .

Gotta know when to hold.. when to fold

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Has that look of big area of 8-12".. couple higher Lollis with enhancements 

I'll also stand by thoughts that S coastal areas have Ptype issues for some of storm at least (Jimmy)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I don't have a problem with doing that - per se ...the tossing.. 

It's pretty normal in operational efforts to sans products that unreasonably buck trends - and you're right .. it could certainly be something endemic to the pattern that the GGEM is not very proficient at picking up on..

But, I don't think the GGEM sucks antic is very fair if/when we embrace it so recently when it shows something we want, and just so happens to not show something that is wanted now?  That was specifically that that I was hitting at. 

Having said that, the GGEM does in fact suck - hahaha.  But, I mean that based upon years of tragedy ... oy vay

I never embraced the GGEM. It sucks regardless, as you say.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

The only way to go..I'd rather have 4 during the day than 8 at night

Agree.  What good is falling snow when you sleep?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.