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Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How do you think this weak to moderate nina differs from the ones that didn't kill us with the Pac jet?

Not trying to be argumentative...just picking your brain.

I just think the one eyed pig is going to be a pain in our sides for large portions of the winter. And maybe a slightly stronger than normal SE ridge pushing zone north. And I could see a drier than normal winter..though that I'm not as confident in

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41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I just think the one eyed pig is going to be a pain in our sides for large portions of the winter. And maybe a slightly stronger than normal SE ridge pushing zone north. And I could see a drier than normal winter..though that I'm not as confident in

Thats fine. I could see a warm stretch for 3-4 weeks myself with AK troughing but I dont see 11/12 imo. The pig is there for about a week then all signs point to ridging to close out the month. if it comes back for majority of Nov then I will salute you and hop on the rat mobile. 

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50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I just think the one eyed pig is going to be a pain in our sides for large portions of the winter. And maybe a slightly stronger than normal SE ridge pushing zone north. And I could see a drier than normal winter..though that I'm not as confident in

Look at mid November.  If the guidance breaking down the pig holds, the question will be how quickly it returns.  If it breaks down by 11/5 and shows signs of returning a week or 2 later, we may be in trouble.  If the change to remove the vortex (displaced west) strengthens beyond current guidance, we may be in good shape.  The next 6 weeks tell the tale.

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Look at mid November.  If the guidance breaking down the pig holds, the question will be how quickly it returns.  If it breaks down by 11/5 and shows signs of returning a week or 2 later, we may be in trouble.  If the change to remove the vortex (displaced west) strengthens beyond current guidance, we may be in good shape.  The next 6 weeks tell the tale.

No arguments there . NoV is very impossible in determining how our winter goes 

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teleconnections respond to troughing over the east and ridging back west, with a +PNA/-AO/-NAO pattern resuming during the last week of OCT and beginning of NOV

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2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

GFS and ensembles show troughing for the end of October

Welcome to 7 days ago.

Have no fear, “winter is coming.”

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Id prefer to see that look on Dec 1st not Nov 1st but...

Yeah I would agree, but early season snow is fun to get us in the mood.  I would prefer the ENSO to be in neutral more so or slightly El Nino, but again a small La Nina isn't bad either, just more miller Bs

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Just now, dendrite said:

Looks like James has awoken. Just need the DIT to flip negative now. It seems a bit more neutral lately.

At the first sign of troughing after Columbus day....the first chapter of the awakening novel begins. 

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I'm waiting to talk to a writer before I sign the agreement with a non traditional publisher, but my dad wants me to talk to a writer before I do in case he has other agents or publisher information.

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6 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

How accurate is that model?

https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2013/13933-seasonal-decadal-prediction-arctic-oscillation.pdf

And a study which might be interesting.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271737956_Impacts_of_two_types_of_La_Nina_on_the_NAO_during_boreal_winter

There seems to be two types of La Nina with different implications for our weather. We - the winter lovers- need an Eastern Pacific La Nina. E.g. 2006-1996-1985.

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8 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I'm waiting to talk to a writer before I sign the agreement with a non traditional publisher, but my dad wants me to talk to a writer before I do in case he has other agents or publisher information.

what does this have to do with winter 2017-2018??

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Only if his fave piggy is showing.

Piggy piggy piggy, can't you see

Kevin's over/under is set to 30.

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

spinning over AK just hypnotizes me.

AK vortex runs to us, 

Wanna warm us, screw us,

Who us? Yeah southern new england.

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