ORH_wxman Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 27 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah November 2014 was the PF 600mb storm where no models had more than 2-4" and we got lucky with very high level deform band and 10-14". Even the 700mb plots didn't show anything exciting but somehow 600mb got it done. Wasn't that one a ton of heavy wet snow damage near Dendrite and northern SNE? Yeah I went up to Killington the Saturday after T-day and once I got to about Princeton going north out of ORH, it was all paste. The funny thing, is we didn't get any rain out of it in ORH, it was just a lot of sleet at like 31-32F after about 2" of snow, and then we flipped back at the end....still got about 6" total...but during a lot of the time we got pounded with sleet, just north was getting big aggregates just pasting everything...those few hours made the big difference in the way the landscape looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I went up to Killington the Saturday after T-day and once I got to about Princeton going north out of ORH, it was all paste. The funny thing, is we didn't get any rain out of it in ORH, it was just a lot of sleet at like 31-32F after about 2" of snow, and then we flipped back at the end....still got about 6" total...but during a lot of the time we got pounded with sleet, just north was getting big aggregates just pasting everything...those few hours made the big difference in the way the landscape looked. It is amazing what a true pine pummeler can do. I think it was December this past season that we got a good one in the GYX to PWM corridor. Literally looked like a nuke went off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I went up to Killington the Saturday after T-day and once I got to about Princeton going north out of ORH, it was all paste. The funny thing, is we didn't get any rain out of it in ORH, it was just a lot of sleet at like 31-32F after about 2" of snow, and then we flipped back at the end....still got about 6" total...but during a lot of the time we got pounded with sleet, just north was getting big aggregates just pasting everything...those few hours made the big difference in the way the landscape looked. Yeah that was quite the QPF bomb for CNE and SNE if I remember correctly. Widespread 1"+ equivalent. I know we got about the same amount of snow as Dendrite but with like at least 50% the QPF...mid level magic 12" on like 0.4-0.5" liquid lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 We actually had a few light snow events the first half of November 2014 even in SE MA. Parts of the interior area down there had two...1-2" events there. That's pretty darn good for so early in the season. First one was on 11/2 which is rare. That's where I found out that even on N winds, I tainted off of Boston Harbor, while my folks in Plymouth County got a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: If the -EPO/+NAO regime continues and we get a neutral ENSO...Leon could make an appearance. Those parameters would be the same background state. We're kind of due for a SE November storm...Nov 2014 and Nov 2012 were both north and west storms...2012 was better closer to the coast than 2014 was, but both kind of screwed SE MA and the immediate coast. Nov '89, Nov '95, Nov '02, and Nov '04 were all pretty good in SE areas. I honestly don't remember a decent November event in my lifetime here. I guess I don't recall 02 or 04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I honestly don't remember a decent November event in my lifetime here. I guess I don't recall 02 or 04 You would have loved 87 and 89. But your locale did well in 02 and 04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You would have loved 87 and 89. But your locale did well in 02 and 04. I do remember the small events in 14... got at least an inch in one of those events. Definitely something I'd like to experience. A solid late November snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 11 hours ago, CoastalWx said: You would have loved 87 and 89. But your locale did well in 02 and 04. '89 was a fluff bomb in SE MA...that storm was so cold. I think some parts near PYM were actually getting ocean enhancement with 850s of like -10C to -12C....crazy airmass for coastal MA that early. Powderfreak would have had cirrus with -20C 850 temps. If it weren't for the cutter about 4 days later, we prob would have kept solid snow cover the entire time between T-day and Xmas. I remember the hammer got thrown down after that cutter and we never looked back until the New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: '89 was a fluff bomb in SE MA...that storm was so cold. I think some parts near PYM were actually getting ocean enhancement with 850s of like -10C to -12C....crazy airmass for coastal MA that early. Powderfreak would have had cirrus with -20C 850 temps. If it weren't for the cutter about 4 days later, we prob would have kept solid snow cover the entire time between T-day and Xmas. I remember the hammer got thrown down after that cutter and we never looked back until the New Year. Yeah it was. Very cold storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it was. Very cold storm. Def a good mid-level magic storm...remember how the forecast was originally for like 2-4"? I'll bet the NGM model back then was printing out like a quarter inch of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Def a good mid-level magic storm...remember how the forecast was originally for like 2-4"? I'll bet the NGM model back then was printing out like a quarter inch of qpf. I think it was upped that morning for my area, but the amounts near and just south of Brockton certainly were not expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 19 hours ago, OceanStWx said: It is amazing what a true pine pummeler can do. I think it was December this past season that we got a good one in the GYX to PWM corridor. Literally looked like a nuke went off. That's the one, and 25+ miles farther inland it was 20-25" of moist powder that looked beautiful and broke very little. My snowfall order for 2017-18, drawing from personal experience since moving to Maine: OCT 2000 6.3" (New Sharon) NOV 1983 28.6" (Ft. Kent) Add the thunderblizzard of 11/21/89 to make it perfect. DEC 1976 61.5" (Ft. Kent) JAN 1987 49.3" (Gardiner) FEB 2017 46.9" (New Sharon) Only with Feb 2015 temps MAR 2001 55.5" (New Sharon) APR 1982 29.0" (Ft. Kent) MAY 1976 1.5" (Ft. Kent) 1984 had 2.2", but 1976 all came while I was rototilling the garden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 16 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I honestly don't remember a decent November event in my lifetime here. I guess I don't recall 02 or 04 2004 was the year messenger re-emerged and that November system was in his wheelhouse. It was pretty early as i recall. RIP Scott S...:( that was was also the year Max showed up..good guy-now happy in Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: 2004 was the year messenger re-emerged and that November system was in his wheelhouse. It was pretty early as i recall. RIP Scott S...:( that was was also the year Max showed up..good guy-now happy in Indiana. I showed up on WWBB later that winter...I think around the Boxing Day storm or just afterward...I had been lurking for quite a while, so I can't remember when my exact first post was. I was def posting by the time Jan 2005 blizzard happened though. My first event posting on eastern was Dec 9, 2005...I remember joining on Dec 7th because I was wondering what happened to all the posters on WWBB after I went on summer hiatus...I then checked eastern on a whim since I remembered a few of the WWBB posters telling me about it the previous winter, but I never bothered to go figuring one forum was enough for me. Lol...the sickness just lives on though in one forum or another. I remember lurking during the ne.weather newsgroup days...but I was too preoccupied with college to bother posting in the email chains. My favorite memory from that was the March 2001 meltdown...DT actually forecasted the northern movement of that storm very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 If you are rooting for snowy November...typically you want some sort of el nino...big November snowfall correlation in our neck of the woods to Nov snowfall with warm enso events. We may be on that track this year, but we'll see. Could stay almost dead neutral or even slightly cool ENSO. Those aren't the worst either...we do have events like Nov '80, Nov '95 and Nov '89 in our bucket covering those ENSO phases. La Nina tends to tease a bit until December....esp on the coast...but I don't think anyone would mind a snowless November if it means we'll get blitzed in December. It would be helpful if we can get some solid EPO ridging this December...been tougher to come by recently as bluewave had posted further up showing the contrasts between the 2000s and 2010s....obviously a -NAO would help too, but I am not counting on that right now. The NAO seems to be holding onto a Greenland vortex with a death grip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If you are rooting for snowy November...typically you want some sort of el nino...big November snowfall correlation in our neck of the woods to Nov snowfall with warm enso events. We may be on that track this year, but we'll see. Could stay almost dead neutral or even slightly cool ENSO. Those aren't the worst either...we do have events like Nov '80, Nov '95 and Nov '89 in our bucket covering those ENSO phases. La Nina tends to tease a bit until December....esp on the coast...but I don't think anyone would mind a snowless November if it means we'll get blitzed in December. It would be helpful if we can get some solid EPO ridging this December...been tougher to come by recently as bluewave had posted further up showing the contrasts between the 2000s and 2010s....obviously a -NAO would help too, but I am not counting on that right now. The NAO seems to be holding onto a Greenland vortex with a death grip. Remember a few years ago when everyone thought we were entering a 30 year favorable NAO regime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Remember a few years ago when everyone thought we were entering a 30 year favorable NAO regime? Yep, just goes to show how quickly things can change within a few years. Coming off the impressive NAO of Feb and March 2013 (and the previous 4 winters basically)......the last thing we were thinking about was a lack of NAO blocking going forward...but we've basically been shutout since then. Some brief blocking (Jan 2016 during the HECS which only scraped us being the most notable block)....but mostly just a huge vortex up there. Thankfully the Pacific has cooperated for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep, just goes to show how quickly things can change within a few years. Coming off the impressive NAO of Feb and March 2013 (and the previous 4 winters basically)......the last thing we were thinking about was a lack of NAO blocking going forward...but we've basically been shutout since then. Some brief blocking (Jan 2016 during the HECS which only scraped us being the most notable block)....but mostly just a huge vortex up there. Thankfully the Pacific has cooperated for the most part. Heh... not that anyone asked or said otherwise: imho, any recent dearth in -NAO realizations can still fit within the explanation of 'noise', that also still fits on that multi-decade curve though - those that discuss the "next 30 years" are probably inferring from the multiple hundred year 30 year periodicity... We can't really claim any breakdown in the oscillatory measure/suggestion therefrom based upon the last three years. I would caution that is not a good sample. Fwiw, this has been a +NAO summer overall ... and it's amazing how little that index correlated to our temperature anomaly distribution. But I also am a maverick thinker with the NAO and feel that it's got too many idiosyncratic requirements in its exact structural biases/fields to be useful as much as it is actually used. I've opined this in the past and I am aware that I am probably a minority. I still believe that to be case, tho. NAO east west north south ... jesus christ and his derivatives therein ... they all correlate less effectively than a general -EPO or +PNA... and it's all ad nauseam. There are too many conditional requirements there. Not to mention, if the index is pig negative ... that's actually a bad thing; a veritable fact that few seem to really understand. It's really a rising or falling NAO (as in Delta(NAO) ) for snow... where negative NAO is more like good for cold sustenance. Then, adding in all the bias tedium above ...? Our primary cold loading is still the EPO. The PNA is the primary "storm loader" ..but those two tend to play off one another. The NAO is like Robbin in the dynamic duo - where Bat-Man is really the integration of the EPO/PNA modes in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 The 1987 Veteran's day storm had a foot for this area. That is extremely rare for this area that early in the season. I think getting a foot in mid April maybe more common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 I think as we move through August we'd want to see a tendency for coastal lows of a cold core variety continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: The 1987 Veteran's day storm had a foot for this area. That is extremely rare for this area that early in the season. I think getting a foot in mid April maybe more common. D.C. had 12+ I think. How unusual is that before 11/15! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: D.C. had 12+ I think. How unusual is that before 11/15! Oh for sure. But to have those winds off the water that early and give that much? That's insane. I remember that one well. I think the call was for 3-6 originally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: D.C. had 12+ I think. How unusual is that before 11/15! Yeah that was ridiculous for them...prob about on par with our Octo-bomb in 2011. So rare for them to see snow of that magnitude anytime before December...but esp in early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 I'll take my chances with a negative arctic oscillation in December...the top 20 negative ao Decembers in NYC averaged almost six degrees colder than the top 20 positive ao Decembers...snowfall was also a lot higher on average during negative ao Decembers...Boston averaged 10.7" for the top 20 negative ao Decembers while the top 20 positive ones averaged 4.8" in December...(Quick math...hope it's right...)...chances for a white Christmas are much higher during a negative ao December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 I checked snow cover for Boston on Christmas morning for the top 20 most negative Decembers and most positive Decembers...the negative years had five white Christmas's with at least 5" of snow on the ground Christmas morning...1961,1963,1966,1995,2009...1969,1981,2010 had a trace on the ground Christmas morning...1969,1976,2002,had snow Christmas afternoon and night... the positive ao Decembers had one real white Christmas...1975...1972 had a trace on the ground Christmas morning...1951 had snow Christmas afternoon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 Can't remember the last winter we had an actual snowpack down her for Christmas itself. Seems like we're either 70 degrees or melt right before the holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 I looked at 40 years since 1950 and found only six real white Christmas's...I'm surprised there weren't more...1995 had the most snow on the ground with 11"...1975 had 10"...1961 had 8"...1963, 1966 and 2009 (est) had 5" on the ground Christmas morning...I'll check the other 27 years with a more neutral ao for December when I have more time...there must be some other years with snow on the ground Christmas morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 1 hour ago, uncle W said: I looked at 40 years since 1950 and found only six real white Christmas's...I'm surprised there weren't more...1995 had the most snow on the ground with 11"...1975 had 10"...1961 had 8"...1963, 1966 and 2009 (est) had 5" on the ground Christmas morning...I'll check the other 27 years with a more neutral ao for December when I have more time...there must be some other years with snow on the ground Christmas morning... NYC or BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 2 hours ago, Isotherm said: NYC or BOS? Sounds like Boston, to me. How is your NAO outlook shaping up in the early going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 9 hours ago, uncle W said: I looked at 40 years since 1950 and found only six real white Christmas's...I'm surprised there weren't more...1995 had the most snow on the ground with 11"...1975 had 10"...1961 had 8"...1963, 1966 and 2009 (est) had 5" on the ground Christmas morning...I'll check the other 27 years with a more neutral ao for December when I have more time...there must be some other years with snow on the ground Christmas morning... 1997 and 2000 were white Christmases though 2000 might have been a bit thin in Boston. There's a whole bunch more just west of Boston...Logan is pretty ugly early in the season. Im surprised 2010 is only listed as a trace for Boston. There was definitely like 3" OTG when I was in Boston on 12/23/10 for a Christmas show. But again, maybe it was Logan airport being uglier than even areas like government center. I think Logan airport itself is really only like 30% probability for white Christmas. Once you get back to ORH it is more like 65-70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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