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Upstate/Eastern New York

BuffaloWeather

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

Sws

  

.A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WAYNE...
SOUTHERN LEWIS...CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTIES...

At 412 PM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates
of up to 2 inches per hour will continue across southern and central
Oswego, southern Lewis, northern Cayuga and northeastern Wayne
Counties this afternoon.

Locations impacted include...
Oswego, Fulton, Fair Haven Beach State Park, Pulaski, Central Square,
Redfield, Selkirk Shores State Park, Highmarket, Mexico Point State
Park and Nine Mile Point.
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BGM Blizzard

BGM Blizzard

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Chinook said:

Last year Binghamton was 51.4" below average snow. This year has been 23" above average to date by Jan. 31st.

About 40% of the total to date and the reason for that surplus is BGM was the very fortunate beneficiary of a highly anomalous hybrid synoptic/lake effect event in mid/late November that resulted in a 72 hour total of 28". 

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted

Couple of flurries here thus far. Looks like band is collapsing as it moves south and falls off the lake.  

I was slightly hopeful for a few hours after 12z GFS didn't look as amped up with next tues/wed system...but Euro still delivers the goods with temps probably surging into 40s to near 50 and copious rain for most of us.  At least no flooding problems Locally as there's almost no snow to melt.

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CNY_WX

CNY_WX

Posted
Posted

Every model run has a different solution so I wouldn't throw in the towel yet, we're still almost a week away. As for this lake snow, what looked promising coming off the lake has been reduced to just some light snow here too.  According to channel 9 we have a couple more shots to get into some good snow between now and Saturday. Teske is forecasting 4-8 inches here by tomorrow night. Think we'll even make it to the low end?

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted

4-8" in So. Oswego county I could see.  KBGM forecast map has us with 2-3" which is way more likely with transient, quickly moving snow showers.  For next week, a ways to go yet but the idea of another lake cutter or panhandle hooker has been the general idea for several days. GFS was advertising something like this occurring in that timeframe (mid next week) for seems like a week now. Longer range looks quite variable and NWS long range maps have us broiling into mid, late feb.

 

update: we picked up a covering of snow...maybe enough for a "0.1" vs T on the daily submittal tomorrow.

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

Kbuf has 10"-16" here just by tomorrow night lol

Tonight
Snow. Low around 23. West wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. 
Thursday
Snow showers likely before 11am, then snow after 11am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. West wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. 
Thursday Night
Snow before 1am, then a chance of snow showers after 1am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. West wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches possible. 
On Thursday...the relatively weak lake snows will linger through
the early morning hours southeast of Lake Ontario before
lifting northward and once again congealing/organizing into a
single lake plume over Wayne/Northern Cayuga/southern Oswego
counties by midday/early afternoon. The remainder of the day will
then feature a continued slow northward drift and further
intensification of the band as it takes advantage of the
increasing fetch across the lake and still-favorable lake EQLs
and moisture profiles...along with the notably colder airmass
(850 mb T`s in the negative mid teens) that will be in place
behind the surface trough. This should result in another round
of heavy to possibly intense snows during the afternoon as the
core of the band drifts northward across Wayne/Northern Cayuga
counties and into Oswego county.

  

Thursday evening the band of snow will be in the process of
consolidating into a stronger single band over Oswego County. Latest
mesoscale guidance such as the NAM, 3KM NAM-RR, and Canadian GEM
show the band oscillating north and south a few times at the
southeast corner of the lake through the first half of Thursday
night. This will spread snow from the southern Tug Hill into Oswego
County and possibly northern Cayuga and eastern Wayne counties at
times.

 

  

Later Thursday night the band will settle over the central Tug Hill
as the flow locks in at due west. The band should intensify over the
Tug Hill during this time as convergence increases down the full
fetch of the lake. Friday morning most of the guidance backs
boundary layer flow more to the WSW ahead of a weak shortwave, which
will carry the heavy band a little farther north to the northern Tug
Hill and the southern half of Jefferson County. Later Friday
afternoon and evening flow will veer to the west, or event WNW
behind the shortwave and carry the band of heavy lake effect snow
back south across the Tug Hill to at least Oswego County. There is
some potential it may move into portions of Northern Cayuga and
northeast Wayne County during this time frame. Finally, the band may
move back north towards the Tug Hill Saturday as boundary layer flow
becomes more westerly again. Inversion heights will lower Saturday
afternoon and evening, forcing lake effect snow to finally weaken.

  

Confidence is high that significant snow will fall, although an
exact storm total is a difficult call given the band will be
oscillating around a good deal. For an initial estimate, we will go
with storm totals of around 3 feet for the central Tug Hill near the
Lewis, Jefferson, Oswego County border, surrounded by an area of 1-2
feet across the lower elevations in the southern half of Jefferson
County, portions of Lewis, and much of Oswego County. As usual,
downsloping will reduce snowfall significantly for the Lowville
area, with more again heading into the western Adirondacks. With the
above in mind, the Lake Effect Snow Watch has been upgraded to a Lake Effect snow Warning..

  

Lake effect snow may move back into Northern Cayuga and Wayne
counties Friday night into Saturday morning as flow becomes WNW
again, with additional accumulations possible.
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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm getting a cabin in Redfield. Me and Devin are investing in one, it can't be expensive. ^_^

http://www.weather.gov/images/buf/stormtotalsnow/StormTotalSnowFcst.png

I've thought about that. Would be fun. It's only about 45 minutes from here.  Would need  electricity, heat, TV, and someway to get wifi.  Cell coverage up there is available but spotty.  We are not savages after all. ;)

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm getting a cabin in Redfield. Me and Devin are investing in one, it can't be expensive. ^_^

http://www.weather.gov/images/buf/stormtotalsnow/StormTotalSnowFcst.png

In a few years I really would be willing to consider it, I bet you could find something decent up there for $50,000. In the mean time I'll just fall asleep tonight dreaming of what it's like to have my seasonal snow total so far (somewhere just under 40" here) fall in just a matter of a day. Ah the magic of the Tug (and a wide open Lake Ontario) !!

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

In a few years I really would be willing to consider it, I bet you could find something decent up there for $50,000. In the mean time I'll just fall asleep tonight dreaming of what it's like to have my seasonal snow total so far (somewhere just under 40" here) fall in just a matter of a day. Ah the magic of the Tug (and a wide open Lake Ontario) !!

I found a whole resort for sale near Redfield...$400K!  If I was still working in Oswego instead of Syracuse I'd think about it. Renting out rooms to snowmobilers and weather geeks would pay for part of it.  Hell, it's not that much more expensive than my house for crying out loud.  If nothing else, some epic parties could be had.

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted

I think Fulton is infer quite a night with what looks to be a steady-state band dropping South and probably going to be hanging out in southern Oswego County for the next at least 6 to 8 hours! Seriously annoyed right now but I actually about 10 miles south of pill which is where I've been for the past 12 years what a difference I'm actually driving back home from my house in pennellville and there's a good, probably I don't know five six 7 inches, which isn't a lot, but that's way more than what we have here in Liverpool that's for sure!!

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Yep.  Looks like a cold front rolling thru. Usually get a nice burst of snow when these fronts are strong enough to generate lightning. Not seeing it on radar though. 

Nothing but that flash followed by a loud boom here that was it..

image_b_us.png?nocache=3260

 

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ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Syrmax said:

I found a whole resort for sale near Redfield...$400K!  If I was still working in Oswego instead of Syracuse I'd think about it. Renting out rooms to snowmobilers and weather geeks would pay for part of it.  Hell, it's not that much more expensive than my house for crying out loud.  If nothing else, some epic parties could be had.

That's cheap lol, do you know if it's still up for sale?

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