Mrwolf1972 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 18z nam not looking to bad any ideas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said: 18z nam not looking to bad any ideas Looks better than last run of NAM by a tic, and definitely better than GFS. Low is further north in Northern GOM on hour 84, curious to see where and how the NAM handles it beyond hour 84. I'm always leery on what the NAM advertises as for precip shield however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Looks better than last run of NAM by a tic, and definitely better than GFS. Low is further north in Northern GOM on hour 84, curious to see where and how the NAM handles it beyond hour 84. I'm always leery on what the NAM advertises as for precip shield however. If the GFS could come as north as nam with better moisture I'd be happy in southern TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said: If the GFS could come as north as nam with better moisture I'd be happy in southern TN. Well here shortly we will see what Mr. GFS has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Weather channel has named the storm Helena. https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/wintry-storm-helena-west-south-snow-ice-forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbowman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Weather channel has named the storm Helena.I wish they would stop doing that. To the untrained public it makes it look as though named winter storms are as serious as hurricanes.Sent from my LG-H901 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 GFS south and suppressed just like past runs. tennessee gets nothing on to the next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 For folks in central MS and AL...the 18z would be a decent snow. Some folks in the southernmost reaches of our forum area would do well by that. Temp profile is always something to watch as is a bit of a jog north. For TN folks, the UKMET is probably our best shot. I think the energy comes ashore tomorrow AM. When that data from land based stations gets ingested, I don't know. I still think we see changes when that happens as it almost always does. It seems like the models still are struggling to decide which system has more energy and where to place that Artic boundary. Some room left to wiggle. I don't mean that big snows will return north of the TN border, but I am intrigued by the UKMET. Outside of that scenario, gets tougher as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I still think we are in store for more big changes. I think this storm will look different come tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Wisher Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: For folks in central MS and AL...the 18z would be a decent snow. Some folks in the southernmost reaches of our forum area would do well by that. Temp profile is always something to watch as is a bit of a jog north. For TN folks, the UKMET is probably our best shot. I think the energy comes ashore tomorrow AM. When that data from land based stations gets ingested, I don't know. I still think we see changes when that happens as it almost always does. It seems like the models still are struggling to decide which system has more energy and where to place that Artic boundary. Some room left to wiggle. I don't mean that big snows will return north of the TN border, but I am intrigued by the UKMET. Outside of that scenario, gets tougher as we get closer. Looks good right now for us but Central MS will most likely get left out when it makes its jog to the N/NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: I still think we are in store for more big changes. I think this storm will look different come tomorrow morning. I agree. The trends haven't been well lately, but I'm not giving up until the wave comes ashore and the models ingest the data. I suspect we will still have some big changes once the models receive that information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: I still think we are in store for more big changes. I think this storm will look different come tomorrow morning. IMO, probably when it comes ashore and gets sampled better...that is when we can see big shifts but not always. That could be as late as tomorrow night. Nothing is ever certain. Would take a massive shift to get much of TN back in play... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Once we get inside of 72 hours...models are generally very good. Not quite to that point yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I guess the next EURO run is pretty important. If it shifts any toward the south, then I'm not feeling the snow love with this storm. If it doesn't, then I think the GFS may shift a bit back toward the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 IMO, probably when it comes ashore and gets sampled better...that is when we can see big shifts but not always. That could be as late as tomorrow night. Nothing is ever certain. Would take a massive shift to get much of TN back in play...It would take a massive shift with the GFS but not so much with the others. I think everyone knows it's gonna come back some but will it be enough?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Anxious to see when the Euro comes out...has anyone seen the GFS and Euro flip and criss cross like they did last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 32 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: It would take a massive shift with the GFS but not so much with the others. I think everyone knows it's gonna come back some but will it be enough? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk That is the question. I think for E TN, there is a chance to get back in the game...It would take IMO some significant changes on most models to get everybody in the forum back into play. But that is the case with most storms - huge forum area for one storm to cover. Either the slider moves 200-300 miles north inside 84 hours or there is a phase on the EC. The GFS looks overly suppressed and maybe even the Euro. It was interesting to see the Euro warm a bit. The UKMET would be great. Right now, there is little operational or ensemble support for most areas to receive more than 2-3"...and most areas excluding E TN are not even that. I think we have about 24 hours and then things lock-in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 38 minutes ago, JayCee said: I guess the next EURO run is pretty important. If it shifts any toward the south, then I'm not feeling the snow love with this storm. If it doesn't, then I think the GFS may shift a bit back toward the north. Yeah. I think we have up until 0z tomorrow night, maybe the window even shuts at 12z tomorrow. Just depends on when that land data gets ingested for the storm originating in the Pacific. But yeah like hurricane season, the hurricane cone gets smaller the closer to shore(in this case where we live) it gets. But again, there is room for a shift once it gets sampled coming into the west coast. I hope the model trends from the past couple of days are wrong. What is probably most concerning is the timing and speed of the system out West are well within the short range models' wheelhouse. Where they are placing the system and the speed of it are not great. I definitely have diminishing confidence in the region wide snow we had all hoped for...I would certainly not rule out the Miller A solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 39 minutes ago, Vol Man said: Anxious to see when the Euro comes out...has anyone seen the GFS and Euro flip and criss cross like they did last night? Volman, been a while. Good to see you posting. It would be a welcome sight to see a shift in our favor. Couple of areas that are not certain are separation between the first two systems, the strength of the first system, actual strength of the system making landfall on the Pacific coast, and interaction with the northern stream by the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Deltadog, a met on the SE forum, put out his second call map. Great met. Probably has as good (or better) a chance as any at verifying. I didn't grab the map as he has his own thread for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Deltadog, a met on the SE forum, put out his second call map. Great met. Probably has as good (or better) a chance as any at verifying. I didn't grab the map as he has his own thread for it. Yeah I just checked that out, I liked his first map a lot. I think most of us would. The 2nd one was not bad with the exception of the northwest corner of Tennessee just gotta hope it stays far enough north for us all. Atleast both maps have us all with a chance though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Deltadog, a met on the SE forum, put out his second call map. Great met. Probably has as good (or better) a chance as any at verifying. I didn't grab the map as he has his own thread for it. Just looked at it. Had west of Knoxville as "all snow but might get shutout". Knoxville to the GSM as "best area for snow"'. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: Just looked at it. Had west of Knoxville as "all snow but might get shutout". Knoxville to the GSM as "best area for snow"'. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Can you post a link to his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Top analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Volman, been a while. Good to see you posting. It would be a welcome sight to see a shift in our favor. Couple of areas that are not certain are separation between the first two systems, the strength of the first system, actual strength of the system making landfall on the Pacific coast, and interaction with the northern stream by the second wave. Hey Carver...yeah, primarily a wintern weather type. I really look forward to interacting with my Tennessee Valley forum family each year. I've really learned a lot from you guys over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 Current model predictions for tonight. UKIE/GEM/Euro repeat. Same for GFS with a slight northern/western tick. NAM will be up and down, as it's not very good beyond 36-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 19 minutes ago, John1122 said: Current model predictions for tonight. UKIE/GEM/Euro repeat. Same for GFS with a slight northern/western tick. NAM will be up and down, as it's not very good beyond 36-48 hours. I agree, I also still think a bit of a tic N and NW with track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Can you post a link to his post.Time for maps?? Lol2nd call map folks...https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink?url=http%3A%2F%2Fsouthernwx%2Ecom%2Fcommunity%2Fshowthread%2Ephp%3Ftid%3D161%26pid%3D15115%23pid15115&share_tid=161&share_fid=1594349&share_type=t&share_pid=15115Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 0z NAM is rolling. 18z RGEM, in my opinion one of the best short range models, also has the storm up to the point it is the Rockies. That would be a model to keep a close eye on. Crazy how much snow the Sierra Nevadas are going to get w this storm, 4'+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 hour ago, jaxjagman said: Top analog Loved this one. Lived in Marietta back then and I was a total snow weenie in those days. Some of my more experienced coworkers at TWC naysayed it...too warm but it did actually work out. Of course that was back in the days of the LFM and NGM...A little less sophisticated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.