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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Is that good for snow?

On 12/9/2011 at 9:10 AM, Metsfan said:

Can someone explain why we need a phase 8 of the MJO

 

Short explanation: "Phase 8 teleconnects to a ridge over the Rockies, which given the usual wavelengths, provides a storm track up the Eastern Seaboard and enhances the chances of a major EC snowstorm." 

from the MJO thread

Pack is correct on the luck thing.

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4 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

Short explanation: "Phase 8 teleconnects to a ridge over the Rockies, which given the usual wavelengths, provides a storm track up the Eastern Seaboard and enhances the chances of a major EC snowstorm." 

from the MJO thread

Pack is correct on the luck thing.

Thats so weird though that the models are the complete opposite of what the MJO is implying 

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Indices looking a little better today:

PNA - Looks to basically stay positive in the short term and then go strongly positive (+1) in the LR

AO - Looks to go strongly negative in the LR

NAO - Goes strongly positive in mid range and could head for neutral in LR

 

Could see the LR models show more cold in upcoming runs.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

 

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I think the main problem is we're going to lose the -EPO. Instead of ridging near Alaska we've got a big ole vortex/low that is just going to have a counter clockwise spin and pump in pacific air into the conus.  So even if we get a trough in the east, the air is just not very cold and I don't think it's going to work for us. 

It's ironic because when Alaska goes blue, we finally start getting a -AO and maybe a bit of -NAO, but it's blocking cool air instead of cold IMO.  Winter is over if we can't lose the blue over Alaska/SW canada IMO. 

4indices.png

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Take my word for it, extremely volitile solutions on modeling for Feb 8-10 we will get lucky I'm sure again with a fantasy snow, just depends on how the energy phases and what the lakes low ends up wanting to be (sub 1000 bomb or not, deep cold or not, etc)

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10 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Cmc is showing frigid temps in teens on the 9th with snow.

Yeah, and that's not even with a snow pack. That's plain old arctic air. 14-15F in Raleigh. 15-16 N GA/SC. 31-32 central florida north..

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Too bad it's the CMC!? Didn't it have 50/60s yesterday for this timeframe 

What a difference a day makes in the LR. Just goes to show you how volatile the pattern is. I still don't buy that double-low idea. I think it will be one system or there will be more separation of the two. Just seem wacky...

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