JoshM Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 21 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I'm a man of my word! No more Twin Tops for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, lilj4425 said: This is depressing. I want 70 and sunny. I've got a space heater and a 100-watt light bulb you can borrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 @Cold Rainshould move to highlands. 4100 feet above sea level. Don’t have to worry about that warm nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 26 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: You should comeback as jackerel_sky. I wanna come back as backpacker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 16 minutes ago, JoshM said: No more Twin Tops for you Oh damn! Forgot that one!! Captain D's will work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Oh damn! Forgot that one!! Captain D's will work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I’m going HRRRRRRRRRRR or bust give Greenville 4-5. Told my son to start waxing the sled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 14 minutes ago, No snow for you said: @Cold Rainshould move to highlands. 4100 feet above sea level. Don’t have to worry about that warm nose Haha true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Surface temps rear their ugly head and now we have a last minute NW trend. My cynical call is 1.5" tops for S Durham and most of Wake. If it trends anymore, cold rain isn't out of the question. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, No snow for you said: I’m going HRRRRRRRRRRR or bust give Greenville 4-5. Told my son to start waxing the sled. Ride or die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Ride or die It’s snowing pretty good here and I think the HRRRRRRRRRRR showed that. It’s heading your way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The battered wife syndrome on display from our Wake County posters right now is strong to quite strong.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I know it's not the same setup, but every time I hear lee trough, I think of this storm. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20030123/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I know that the RAP isn't actually the most accurate model, but with it showing the continued trend of warming at the surface and precip further west, it's starting to indicate to me that this is going to be another western piedmont special. It is curious, though, that we can have falling snow, a decent northerly wind and still have BL temps warm. But hey, I've seen weirder things. Moral of the story: don't bank on snow in the Triangle unless the models show you in the sweet spot ON THE DAY OF THE EVENT. Even 24 hours before is not enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, WidreMann said: I know that the RAP isn't actually the most accurate model, but with it showing the continued trend of warming at the surface and precip further west, it's starting to indicate to me that this is going to be another western piedmont special. It is curious, though, that we can have falling snow, a decent northerly wind and still have BL temps warm. But hey, I've seen weirder things. Moral of the story: don't bank on snow in the Triangle unless the models show you in the sweet spot ON THE DAY OF THE EVENT. Even 24 hours before is not enough. And even when it starts, the dry air bubble sets up over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, WidreMann said: I know that the RAP isn't actually the most accurate model, but with it showing the continued trend of warming at the surface and precip further west, it's starting to indicate to me that this is going to be another western piedmont special. It is curious, though, that we can have falling snow, a decent northerly wind and still have BL temps warm. But hey, I've seen weirder things. Moral of the story: don't bank on snow in the Triangle unless the models show you in the sweet spot ON THE DAY OF THE EVENT. Even 24 hours before is not enough. Every model I've seen has Raleigh and eastern/central NC in the sweet spot. Hey but if you want to give me more snow, I'll take it! I am concerned with the continued forecast for rain/snow at the onset by my NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, SnowNiner said: Every model I've seen has Raleigh and eastern/central NC in the sweet spot. Hey but if you want to give me more snow, I'll take it! I am concerned with the continued forecast for rain/snow at the onset by my NWS. Have you seen the HRRR and the 18z GFS? Both keep us above freezing, albeit slightly, through most of the event. RGEM I think is also like that. HRRR actually raises temperatures after precip starts. Hard to believe, but entirely in line with the kind of thing that would happen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 35 minutes ago, WidreMann said: I know that the RAP isn't actually the most accurate model, but with it showing the continued trend of warming at the surface and precip further west, it's starting to indicate to me that this is going to be another western piedmont special. It is curious, though, that we can have falling snow, a decent northerly wind and still have BL temps warm. But hey, I've seen weirder things. Moral of the story: don't bank on snow in the Triangle unless the models show you in the sweet spot ON THE DAY OF THE EVENT. Even 24 hours before is not enough. Definitely a good point. Would be really interesting if virtually every model missed it within 24 hours. Don’t care as much about temps this time, but slowing the precip down and/or greatly shortening the duration of it is not a happy thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, Cold Rain said: Definitely a good point. Would be really interesting if virtually every model missed it within 24 hours. Don’t care as much about temps this time, but slowing the precip down and/or greatly shortening the duration of it is not a happy thing. How much snow do you need to call this a good winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, No snow for you said: How much snow do you need to call this a good winter? 4”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I was really feeling good about it until this afternoon. Usually, when there’s a jackpot zone just west of the Triangle, there’s a cliff through Wake Co., even if the models still show robust totals on the east side. Models try to spread that gradient out too much over too wide an area. I could see Orange Co. get 7” and my area get 1”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: 4”. How would 5.2 work for you tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, No snow for you said: How would 5.2 work for you tomorrow? Better than a sharp stick in the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Better than a sharp stick in the eye. Consider it done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 hour ago, JoshM said: Can't be right, BL temps and stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 hours ago, Cold Rain said: I was really feeling good about it until this afternoon. Usually, when there’s a jackpot zone just west of the Triangle, there’s a cliff through Wake Co., even if the models still show robust totals on the east side. Models try to spread that gradient out too much over too wide an area. I could see Orange Co. get 7” and my area get 1”. I feel the same way you do. Don’t worry though, I’m sure that Brick will chime in soon saying that we have nothing to worry about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 I wanna come back as backpacker! Wear a mask and come back as The Masked Assassin like Dusty Rhodes did back in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Party at Brick’s house. Shake your tomatoes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 I just wanna get more snow than Brick. Is that too much to ask? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Could I get snowed in at highlands? Please dear god yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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