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MAG5035

Central PA - February 2017

1,702 posts in this topic

7 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Starting to see accidents.


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Looking at Super Doppler 8, you are sitting under a sweet narrow band parked right over the central and southern part of the  county. It looks to extend roughly from route 30 south. I'm sitting a few miles north of 30, and I had about 15 minutes of flurries a while ago and that was all she wrote...

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25 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

My son said "it worked"!

I said, "what worked".

He said, "We did a snow dance at school".

The wonders of youth.


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I'm in a tree stand archery huntin in Chester county. Freezing my Wally wallys off. I'm ready to dance. No flakes here yet. Son n daughter headed to Rountop snoboardin and he said it's snowin in Akron. 

Nut

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Just now, maytownpawx said:

I can actually see individual flakes that fell earlier on my vehicles. This is one storm where if you get under a little band...every flake accumulates. 

And it's snowin in Chester 

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Looks like the snow is pretty much over here. We picked up 1" from the band that set up this morning. Very light and fluffy stuff again. Melted down to .05" of water. 20:1 ratio. 3.5" in 2 days this winter feels like a big win!

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18 hours ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Ugh, thanks for reminding me about that shafting and last year's complete rotter of a winter. :axe:

Looks like your 100 mile shift to the east paid off nicely today. 

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10 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Looks like your 100 mile shift to the east paid off nicely today. 

Heh, we actually now have more snow than AVP for met winter with this event. :P (About 9.5" to 7.1")

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For you snow lovers, here's a trip I'll bet every one of you would love to take. Trucker Josh, a Canadian trucker from Manitoba, takes a run up the Alaska Highway to Whitehorse in the Yukon Territory. Even to this warm weather lover, I'll have to admit, it looks beautiful... 

 

 

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28 minutes ago, Voyager said:

For you snow lovers, here's a trip I'll bet every one of you would love to take. Trucker Josh, a Canadian trucker from Manitoba, takes a run up the Alaska Highway to Whitehorse in the Yukon Territory. Even to this warm weather lover, I'll have to admit, it looks beautiful... 

 

 

I know I'd probably opt for a snow-covered Alaska Highway and all of it's scenery over I-80 on a good day if I was a truck driver haha. 

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The impending hostile pattern coming up for at least the coming week or so has been fairly well advertised, especially when you view things from the 500mb heights point of view. That WPC map I put up this morning illustrates the tremendous influx of Pac moisture that will be pouring into the western states during the next week as well. The anomalous ridge over Alaska is progged to retro and reform in eastern Siberia and replace the northern Pac and AK below normal heights... allowing for a pretty effective reversal of the EPO/WPO indexes. Significant troughing once again centers over western Canada and the western US driving heights way up in the east. So torch right? Not necessarily.. we still have a lot of arctic air on the playing field. Arctic air masses are shallow, so you can have cold air underneath what would appear to be a raging 500mb ridge with the right setup... such as a formidable surface high pressure to your north. 

It's possible we could see pretty much everything over the course of the next week starting with the early week system delivering snow/mix to rain and we further moderate into mid-week. Modeling roughly shows potentially another wave that drags a front down and that's where things get interesting as high pressure builds to the north. There will be a boundary.. and we could end up on either side of it. It's quite probable that if we have another wave running up into a 1044+ high over northern New England this time next week that we would likely have a snowier/icier outcome. Models are going to have trouble resolving those features at this lead time. 

To summarize, it's a crappy 500 setup but there's a lot of cold air and moisture to clash with the warm SE ridge that pops up due to the pattern alignment. It's the kind of pattern you could see a big time ice storm where that boundary stalls with a strong high to the north.. or even a surprise snowstorm. 

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11 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I know I'd probably opt for a snow-covered Alaska Highway and all of it's scenery over I-80 on a good day if I was a truck driver haha. 

I think I would, too. I came across I-80 on Friday, and there were four different trucks in the ditch or median from the Thursday afternoon/evening snowfall. One guy managed to take his eastbound truck right across the center median AND the westbound lanes and get it stuck, perpendicular to the freeway, on a small ridge just off the westbound lanes. The only way I could see him getting into that kind of predicament was to have been going way too fast for the conditions.

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10 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

The impending hostile pattern coming up for at least the coming week or so has been fairly well advertised, especially when you view things from the 500mb heights point of view. That WPC map I put up this morning illustrates the tremendous influx of Pac moisture that will be pouring into the western states during the next week as well. The anomalous ridge over Alaska is progged to retro and reform in eastern Siberia and replace the northern Pac and AK below normal heights... allowing for a pretty effective reversal of the EPO/WPO indexes. Significant troughing once again centers over western Canada and the western US driving heights way up in the east. So torch right? Not necessarily.. we still have a lot of arctic air on the playing field. Arctic air masses are shallow, so you can have cold air underneath what would appear to be a raging 500mb ridge with the right setup... such as a formidable surface high pressure to your north. 

It's possible we could see pretty much everything over the course of the next week starting with the early week system delivering snow/mix to rain and we further moderate into mid-week. Modeling roughly shows potentially another wave that drags a front down and that's where things get interesting as high pressure builds to the north. There will be a boundary.. and we could end up on either side of it. It's quite probable that if we have another wave running up into a 1044+ high over northern New England this time next week that we would likely have a snowier/icier outcome. Models are going to have trouble resolving those features at this lead time. 

To summarize, it's a crappy 500 setup but there's a lot of cold air and moisture to clash with the warm SE ridge that pops up due to the pattern alignment. It's the kind of pattern you could see a big time ice storm where that boundary stalls with a strong high to the north.. or even a surprise snowstorm. 

Thanks for the insight.  after looking at the overnight runs, thats been my wonderment, as despite a craptastic 500 pattern that is being depicted, we have all of this stale cold....BUTTT, highs are scooting along to the north...and decent ones at that.  I just dont see how they can so easily be pushed around when you have reinforcements close by.  Screams ice to me, but like you suggest, with the right timing, we could score.

This pattern reminds me of the 4 x 100 in track.  Its fast...lots of moving parts, and timing is EVERYTHING.  Its also a enjoy it today, cause it may be gone tomorrow.  

Footnote, i cant say I've ever seen such hights on a 500 panel as I've seen in the last few runs.  Hoping that despite the signal it sends, that as often is the case, that signal becomes more muted as we get closer.

Nut

 

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The 0z Canadian model had the best case scenario in this set up next weekend for all of CTP. It gives 14 to 24 inches of snow to all of our region. The strong highs are pressing to our northwest & a weak , but moisture laden storm passes to our southeast which puts us in the bullseye.

If you love snow, please take a look at it just for amusement. For once, it would be nice if the Canadian was right!

The Euro & GFS, along with their ensembles the last few days have been showing the strong highs coming down & a storm attacking from the southwest. The timing of the storm will need to be just right to put CTP on the right side of the boundary for snow. I'm sure we will see all types of model solutions the next few days which will be interesting to track.

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In the near term, both the NAM and the GFS are painting a rather icy scenario for Tuesday. Up to a quarter inch in numerous areas...

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9 minutes ago, Voyager said:

In the near term, both the NAM and the GFS are painting a rather icy scenario for Tuesday. Up to a quarter inch in numerous areas...

yeah...saw that.  As we know, the cold is often under modelled, so it suerly is something to look out for.

 

nut

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20 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 0z Canadian model had the best case scenario in this set up next weekend for all of CTP. It gives 14 to 24 inches of snow to all of our region. The strong highs are pressing to our northwest & a weak , but moisture laden storm passes to our southeast which puts us in the bullseye.

If you love snow, please take a look at it just for amusement. For once, it would be nice if the Canadian was right!

The Euro & GFS, along with their ensembles the last few days have been showing the strong highs coming down & a storm attacking from the southwest. The timing of the storm will need to be just right to put CTP on the right side of the boundary for snow. I'm sure we will see all types of model solutions the next few days which will be interesting to track.

and after that storm, another is coming up from the south w/ a 1030H up north (although not in a perfect position...it would help w/cad.)  CMC is due and I'm ready to root for it.

Nut

 

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while it may not all stick around.  At least some flakes may fly this week.  Lets hope the cold can hold better as the week progresses.  

 

Nutgfs_asnow_neus_41.png

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16 hours ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Heh, we actually now have more snow than AVP for met winter with this event. :P (About 9.5" to 7.1")

I believe places to the north of AVP have done well.

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