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MAG5035

Central PA - February 2017

1,702 posts in this topic

It looks (early one anyway) to my untrained eye, that the Sunday storm is trending south as well. At 153, it's congrats Philly, Baltimore, and DC. And "what snowstorm" north of the PA/NY border...

Northern tier counties look like they not see more than an inch from BOTH storms combined per the 12z run.

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4 minutes ago, Voyager said:

It looks (early one anyway) to my untrained eye, that the Sunday storm is trending south as well. At 153, it's congrats Philly, Baltimore, and DC. And "what snowstorm" north of the PA/NY border...

Northern tier counties look like they not see more than an inch from BOTH storms combined per the 12z run.

Could be a Virginia snowstorm for sure. 

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1 hour ago, maytownpawx said:

Horst says it's a good set up for this weekend, and added that it could be the biggest snow of the season. That got me excited...

...and then I recalled what our biggest snow so far has been. 

This made me chuckle

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2 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

The trend has been north all winter and usually March snowstorms trend north anyway.

I really like where we sit at this juncture.  Not sure everyone gets into the good stuff, but its far better than anything weve seen, and we've got one now crossing into the medium range w/ another right on its heels.

Give me the [email protected] dice....I'll roll em'.

 

Nut

 

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1 minute ago, maytownpawx said:

Maybe...but there are some really good mets who think this isn't finished going even further south than it is now. 

NAO finally comes and makes suppression a concern.  Lots of ways to fail, but I'll take chances w/ this pattern anytime.

 

Nut

 

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13 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

NAO finally comes and makes suppression a concern.  Lots of ways to fail, but I'll take chances w/ this pattern anytime.

 

Nut

 

If suppression wins out, then I hope it's suppressed enough that I smoke cirrus. I'm beyond sick of being on the fringe and getting a messy 2 inches. I've always been in the "go big or go home" camp. Being that I'm not the biggest snow and winter fan, nuisance snows are quite irritating...

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42 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

NAO finally comes and makes suppression a concern.  Lots of ways to fail, but I'll take chances w/ this pattern anytime.

 

Nut

 

I'll partner up with you. Let's go for broke. Why not? We're starting with house change anyway. 

Very entertaining to read the various sub forums today...each one of them defending why they'll jackpot or why the jackpot will move over their houses...

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It's absolutely staying south. Charlottesville, Va will have a double-digit lead on Harrisburg, Pa when the season ends. 

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28 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

I'll partner up with you. Let's go for broke. Why not? We're starting with house change anyway. 

Very entertaining to read the various sub forums today...each one of them defending why they'll jackpot or why the jackpot will move over their houses...

I'm in. I see the trend south but as someone also posted in the MA thread sometimes the cold is overmoddled and if so a tick north is definitely possible. This cold is coming from a west based nao so if a southern slider is possible this could be the pattern to do it. Don't think this one is "locked up" yet but I definitely think we get snow in a good chunk if our region. 

Nut

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I'll take suppression look any day of the week from 5+ days out.

Much better than trying to thump snow before it flips to rain.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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The pattern is looking pretty formidable with regard to getting snow over the area. A lot of people are honking on the weekend threat, as we should to a degree, but there's a threat right before that, that could see some decent accumulation on Friday. Quick moving shortwave will dive southeast out of the northern plains with weak low pressure developing along the thermal gradient created from a nosing wedge of Arctic high pressure advancing from the Northern Rockies and Canada. The intense thermal gradient from the warm wedge to the south and arctic air advecting across the Plains and into the Eastern US would create a nice stripe of precip moving west to east as the low rides along the boundary. One rule of thumb is fresh arctic air masses will almost always lead to snowfall development due to the depth of the cold air forcing warmer air ahead of it as it moves into the region. Add an organized area of low pressure to the mix, and you could see a nice swath of snowfall falling on the cold side of the gradient and north of the 700mb vort where lift is maximized. GFS is currently showing a pressing boundary from the north on Thursday evening, leading to the entire state on the cold side of the gradient with weak low pressure sliding underneath around Central VA. 700mb vort pass across the same area as well, leading to expanding area of precip across the Ohio Valley, tracking to the east. Pending how far south the baroclinic boundary can setup will determine who gets what with regard to snow accumulations, so something to watch prior to any storm potential over the weekend.

The weekend deal is still a ways away, but the signal for robust, west based NAO blocking regime with several shortwave pulses riding down from the Northern Plains, southeast toward the Tennessee Valley and area confluence to the north would lead to a potentially active pattern with snow being the primary precip threat due to blocked Canadian high pressures roaming across southern Canada. Personally, looking at this pattern, I'd be more wary of sheared disturbances and treks too far to the south than anything too far north due to the forecasted confluence over the NE. With a robust blocking pattern, systems are forced underneath and will not be able to move northward with such a stout surface ridge depiction over Quebec which is locked in due to the setup over Greenland. It's an enticing pattern, but one that should heed caution for the time being as models get a better handle on numerous shortwave pulses diving into the CONUS. One things for sure, it looks cold no matter what for the weekend and will be down right frigid if a storm were to materialize with fresh snow cover and high pressure moving in behind the potential weekend disturbance. March is the new January I suppose. 

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1 hour ago, Voyager said:

If suppression wins out, then I hope it's suppressed enough that I smoke cirrus. I'm beyond sick of being on the fringe and getting a messy 2 inches. I've always been in the "go big or go home" camp. Being that I'm not the biggest snow and winter fan, nuisance snows are quite irritating...

I endorse this entire statement.

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if this is suppresion......i aint got NO depression.

Verbatim the entire state of PA is 10"+ with more chances to come - if NAO holds ground.

while southern solutions cannot be discounted Atomix....I'm not sure I'd put all my eggs in the euro basket.  Remember the GFS does pretty well w/ northern stream stuff.  As were now getting this thing close enough, we need to rely on past experience from the days when it used to snow (regarding analysis/trends/model biases).

Nut

 

58bd9e995389c_gefs12.png.8896ca6bd8d9e232d185992022f74795.png

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For anyone that might be interested, RealEarth mobile app is now displaying GOES-16 data at 2 min latency. It's run by Univ of Wisconsin where a few of my former classmates from college are currently studying for their Masters. It's pretty sweet visually and will only get better in time. Enjoy!

 

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Para

para

para.

Every chip i own.....and I'll even borrow some at high interest rates if needed.

Watching the loop gave me goose bumps (while not perfect you can assume certain possibilities).  

Nut

 

gfsp_asnow_neus_41.png

 

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1 hour ago, maytownpawx said:

Euro is south, jackpot central VA. 

At this point I rather have it south. It's March if this was January I say it may be a south mid atlnatic event.

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