Jns2183 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Hey, just took a look at a bunch of runs/data, it is pretty up in the air, but I see enough to warrant keeping a close eye on things. Keep in mind in our neck of the woods the main threat is wind damage and heavy downpours as opposed to areas getting hammered tonight.It's been bad out there; even bad in areas pretty far away from MDT risk area. Ottawa, Ill, 60 miles wsw of Chicago has been under a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning 7 different times. Tornado just formed in south east Kansas near front in area with temperatures in high 50's and dewpoint in the 40's. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 5 hours ago, 2001kx said: How does tomorrow look up my way? I hate severe storms (wind mainly) Im surrounded by huge pine trees. I don't think our area will be as potentially favorable as the Sus Valley. We will probably have to watch the frontal passage for severe winds, maybe a line or two of storms that fires up ahead of that. The Sus Valley will have the benefit of the frontal passage coming through later in the day towards the evening and will also be the region that stands the best chance of clearing in the afternoon. If we end up with more cloud cover that will reduce CAPE, which will inhibit other severe parameters...specifically the tornado and discrete cell/supercell threat. The wind threat should be mostly region-wide, with the Sus Valley having the highest potential as there will still be some marginal CAPE to work with even if the clouds win. A line of storms that forms has the potential to tap down the deep unidirectional wind field aloft that is very robust wind-speed wise. I know the terms and jargon can get pretty confusing quickly with severe weather.. I'm still learning myself with applying and fully understanding them. I have mentioned helicity and EHI in my couple of severe posts. Helicity is a measure of the rotation potential in right-moving supercells. SPC mesoanalysis definition below: Quote SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) is a measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in right-moving supercells, and is calculated for the lowest 1-km and 3-km layers above ground level. There is no clear threshold value for SRH when forecasting supercells, since the formation of supercells appears to be related more strongly to the deeper layer vertical shear. Larger values of 0-3-km SRH (greater than 250 m**2/s**2) and 0-1-km SRH (greater than 100 m**2/s**2), however, do suggest an increased threat of tornadoes with supercells. For SRH, larger values are generally better, but there are no clear "boundaries" between non-tornadic and significant tornadic supercells. EHI applies an equation that involves both CAPE and helicity (SRH): Quote The basic premise behind the EHI (Energy-Helicity Index) is that storm rotation should be maximized when CAPE is large and SRH is large. 0-1-km EHI values greater than 1-2 have been associated with significant tornadoes in supercells. Those two things get measured at 0-1km and 0-3km. In terms of tomorrow with our area...helicity is certainly good, but CAPE is marginal. Thus, the potential of discrete supercell formationis somewhat stunted. Although if we get some sun and daytime heating, we will have to watch anything discrete that forms because they will be in an environment conducive to rotating. In other news, don't sleep on Thursday night either. That imaginary precipitation type might make an appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Think it stays slight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Close-up of the 06z Day 1 SPC outlook for our region. I'm willing to bet the ENH region gets shunted south towards the PA/MD border with the next update as near-term guidance is limiting any chance of good destabilization across at least the northern 2/3rds of PA. I woke up to thunder (first of the year) this morning which is pretty impressive for March 1st. It'll be an interesting day to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Heard some thunder this morning. The convection this morning may not allow for much destabilization later and will probably limit the instability, at least over central PA. However, we may still have a threat for strong winds as an MCS develops later today and mixes the high momentum air to the surface. There could still be some more discrete convection in SE PA as that area probably has a better chance of clearing out before the MCS arrives, and may be initiated by the gust front and/or the residual outflow boundaries from the morning/early-afternoon convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 I like to be in bullseyes but not these. Ugh. So....as I read Mags post which like usual is rather informative ( thanks)....what panels in shear do you focus on ? Did I see 0 and 3k being thrown around? I will google CAPE unless someone wants to give me the cliff notes? batten down the hatches gang. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I like to be in bullseyes but not these. Ugh. So....as I read Mags post which like usual is rather informative ( thanks)....what panels in shear do you focus on ? Did I see 0 and 3k being thrown around? I will google CAPE unless someone wants to give me the cliff notes? batten down the hatches gang. Nut Check out UCAR a free info/training site for weather topics. It goes pretty indepth (well very indepth on some things). Also CAPE is Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is measure of the amount of energy available for convection. CAPE is directly related to the maximum potential vertical speed within an updraft; thus, higher values indicate greater potential for severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Some nice rumbles of thunder in Camp Hill a few minutes ago. Wonder if we will clear out or not for the 2nd round. Part of me hopes so (because weather) part of me really doesnt hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Nice heavy, heavy rain at 7:45 am, perfect for the commute lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 We're talking tornadoes, NYC thread is talking about snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 As Garth Brooks sings..............and the Thunder Rolls!! Couple rumbles this am and sideways rain to start the morning. As mentioned above, unless this clears off today, the LSV biggest threat later will be the wind. Happy tracking today fellas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 48 minutes ago, Anduril said: Check out UCAR a free info/training site for weather topics. It goes pretty indepth (well very indepth on some things). Also CAPE is Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is measure of the amount of energy available for convection. CAPE is directly related to the maximum potential vertical speed within an updraft; thus, higher values indicate greater potential for severe weather. thanks man. Will look around in there and try to connect a dot or 2. Sauss......Wind = BOOO Snow......whats this phenomenon you speak of?? Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Jmister said: Close-up of the 06z Day 1 SPC outlook for our region. I'm willing to bet the ENH region gets shunted south towards the PA/MD border with the next update as near-term guidance is limiting any chance of good destabilization across at least the northern 2/3rds of PA. I woke up to thunder (first of the year) this morning which is pretty impressive for March 1st. It'll be an interesting day to track. Whats ENH? Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Whats ENH? Nut Their abbreviation for enhanced. My assumption was wrong. There was no north/south movement of the enhanced area, just an eastward expansion. Crazy there's a 45% severe wind category up for the DC/Baltimore area now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Bring honest, I like this to underachieve for pretty much all of us at this point. A good deck of clouds with rain for all southern areas as of 920am, we are trying to clear up here, but still overcast and we are further removed from best dynamics. We may get away without too much drama today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Bring honest, I like this to underachieve for pretty much all of us at this point. A good deck of clouds with rain for all southern areas as of 920am, we are trying to clear up here, but still overcast and we are further removed from best dynamics. We may get away without too much drama today. For once, just this one time, I hope your pessimism is right. And if you are, I just might add it to my collection of your pessimistic thoughts in my 24 hours of Central PA weather thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Not being pessimistic dude, just calling it how it appears at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Not being pessimistic dude, just calling it how it appears at the moment. Didn't mean that in a negative way at all. I hope the fact that you aren't feeling this is a good thing for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Gotcha, didn't want to appear as if I'm whining about destructive weather sparing us. Obviously weird stuff happens in these set ups, but it's clearly going to be dealing with meager instability, which is a major component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Sun is now peeking through. And so it begins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 2 hours ago, Jmister said: Their abbreviation for enhanced. My assumption was wrong. There was no north/south movement of the enhanced area, just an eastward expansion. Crazy there's a 45% severe wind category up for the DC/Baltimore area now. I guessed right.... thanks J. See i can do this. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 26 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Sun is now peeking through. And so it begins... Just thought same thing. Hoping for clouds to hang tough. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Guys, fast approaching clouds and precip have me hopeful that worst of storms stay under the mason line. As usual, this is more of a quick obs, and mag or heavy remain welcome to body slam my thoughts if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 50/50 split sun/clouds but sun increasing every minute here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Let's get through the next 6-8 hours and then we can start talking about snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 14 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Guys, fast approaching clouds and precip have me hopeful that worst of storms stay under the mason line. As usual, this is more of a quick obs, and mag or heavy remain welcome to body slam my thoughts if need be. Rather sunny here in Etown as well. Hurry up clouds..... I think yo may be right though, as from what little I know about this side of stuff, less heating = less instability and dynamics, so I hopt thats the case. many holes still remain in roofs round here. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 New spc outlook reflects thoughts I put forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 "Some severe T-storms today...gusty winds (W 20 - 40mph) Thursday...then a period of snow likely Friday " - From Horst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Looks like another swing and a miss for severe storms in Central PA. As expected, the clouds and showers never allowed for destabilization. We're still 57 degrees despite a forecast high of 67. Considering last year I think we had 2-3 "exciting" severe days to track, this year is already way ahead of schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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